Early Ag Weather Watch - Feb 5

EARLY LOOK WEATHER REPORT

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...88 AT FORT MYERS FL AND PUNTA GORDA FL

LOW  TUE...29 BELOW ZERO AT BRIMSON MN

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 06:00 PM CT...MEMPHIS TN 2.78 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

The US and European models are in fair agreement during the 6 to 10 day

period. The high latitude blocking ridge remains well west and north of Alaska

during this period. We note a major trough centered over the Aleutians of

southwest Alaska. The polar trough is shown over or a little north of Hudson

Bay Canada. This trough is stronger and a little further to the south on

today's European model. The mean trough in the US appears to be over or just

east of the Miss river valley. This is still a cold weather pattern in Canada

and the northern most areas of the US. The temperature pattern over the central

and southern US is more variable in nature during this period. Precipitation

chances appear to be heaviest from the southeast plains and the lower Miss

river valley to the Ohio river valley and then through the east-central US

areas. The balance of the key central US areas would see less chance for

significant precipitation during the 6-10 day period.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

SOUTH AMERICA: A strong ridge of high pressure centered east of southern Brazil

is expected to remain in place for at least another 7 days. This maintains a

hotter, drier pattern for southern Brazil crop areas while also causing fronts

to stall out over central Argentina with episodes of thunderstorms continuing

for these areas, centered on Cordoba, Sante Fe and Entre Rios Argentina and

Uruguay.

ARGENTINA: Episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms during the next 7

days and no severe heat will favor pollinating corn and developing soybeans.

However the heavy nature of these storms may mean local flooding. Sunflower

areas of La Pampa and southwest Buenos Aires look drier during this period.

BRAZIL: A hot, drier weather pattern continues during the next 7 days (at

least). This will deplete soil moisture and increase crop stress. This

situation bears watching. Drier weather in the northern most corn and soybean

areas will mostly favor early harvesting while soil moisture supports late

filling crops. An exception to this is in the Sao Paulo area where dryness may

impact filling crops.

BRAZIL COFFEE AND SUGARCANE AREAS: Temperatures are expected to average above

normal and rainfall below normal during the next 7 days. This likely means

increasing stress to coffee trees and developing sugarcane during this period.

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS: Temperatures average well below normal during this week

with lows dropping significantly below zero F in north and central growing

areas. However, snow will precede the coldest of the temperatures which should

protect the crop from harm. Feed lots in southwest Kansas will see episodes of

snow and cold during the week which increases stress to livestock.

MIDWEST: Soft Red winter wheat areas will continue to see below normal winter

cold conditions during the next 7 days. Snow, ice and rain will impact much of

the region at times. This is neutral for crop prospects at this date, except in

areas of extreme icing.

SOUTH AFRICA: Moderate to locally heavy showers and thunderstorms occurred

during the weekend period. This should maintain adequate to surplus soil

moisture for maize and improve conditions for sugarcane...after earlier

dryness. Local flooding may occur with the storms in the maize growing areas.

UKRAINE/WEST RUSSIA: The cold high pressure system that brought sub zero (F)

readings to many wheat areas last week appears to be weakening and moving off

to the east. The cold wave is coming to an end with more moderate temperatures

likely for awhile. This should favor winter grains.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES/FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

WEST: Snow, 0.25-0.50 inch and locally heavier melted, occurred from southern

Iowa southward into Missouri. This has likely produced 4-8 inches of snow,

heaviest northern Missouri. Only light snow or snow showers into central Iowa.

Drier to the north. Temperatures averaged below normal.

EAST: Snow, ice and some rain produced 0.30-1.50 inches and locally heavier

during the past 24 hours... except northern areas had only a little light snow.

The heaviest precipitation, 1.00 inch or more, occurred near the Ohio river and

took the form of snow, ice and rain. Temperatures averaged below normal

yesterday.

Forecast....

WEST: Mostly dry today and Thursday. Dry or with only a little light snow or

snow showers during Friday. Temperatures average well below normal.

Dry or with only a little light snow during Saturday. Dry Sunday and Monday.

Temperatures average below normal during this period.

EAST: Snow may linger today, especially through central and northeast areas.

Mostly dry tomorrow and Friday. Temperatures average below or much below

normal.

Chance for light snow, favoring north and east areas, during Saturday.

Mostly dry Sunday and Monday. Temperatures average below or well below normal.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average below during the period.

Precipitation should average near to above normal southeast areas, near to

below normal through the northwest.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat)

Summary: Snow and blowing snow, 0.10-0.50 inch melted, occurred through eastern

and southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma during the past 24 hours. This likely

means 3-6 inches of snow with some heavier possible. Showers or rain, 0.10-0.50

inch, occurred in northeast Texas yesterday. Only light precipitation of up to

0.10 inch occurred elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged below normal

yesterday.

Forecast: Dry or with only a little light snow or snow flurries today through

Friday. Temperatures average below or much below normal. The coldest low

temperatures in Kansas should average -4 to -13 F.

Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday. Chance for a little light precipitation,

favoring south and east areas, during Monday. Temperatures average below

normal.

6-10 Day Outlook...Temperatures are expected to vary somewhat during this

period.  Precipitation should average near to above normal in the south,

especially in the southeast, near to below normal elsewhere in the region.

Brazil (Corn and Soybeans)

Summary...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: Mostly dry or with only isolated light showers in

southeast RDGS during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above normal.

Highs yesterday were mostly 93 to 100 F (34-38 C).

Mato Grosso, MGDS and Goias: A few light showers were reported in Mato Grosso

during the past 24 hours. Dry elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged

below normal through Mato Grosso and MGDS, near to above normal in Goias.

Forecast...

Rio Grande do Sul, Parana, MGDS: Mostly dry today through Friday. Temperatures

average above normal during this period with highs mostly 93 to 102 F (34-39 C)

each day.

Mostly dry Saturday. Chance for a few showers or thundershowers Sunday or

Monday. Showers, if any, would be mostly for RGDS. Temperatures average above

normal. Highs mostly 93 to 102 F (34-39 C) each day.

Argentina (Corn, Soybean, Wheat)

Summary...Cordoba, Sante Fe, Buenos Aires, La Pampa.

Isolated to widely scattered thundershowers were reported in Sante Fe,

Cordoba and southern Buenos Aires. A few of these were locally heavy. Drier

otherwise in the region yesterday. Temperatures averaged below normal

yesterday, except in southern most areas of Buenos Aires where it was somewhat

hotter.

Forecast...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms today and tonight for many areas,

heaviest north and east areas. Showers and thundershowers may redevelop during

Thursday and Friday in Cordoba, Sante Fe and Entre Rios. Little elsewhere in

the region during these days. Temperatures average near to below normal.

The thunderstorm risk continues for Cordoba and Sante Fe during Saturday

through Monday. Heavy storms can not be ruled out. Drier for La Pampa and

southern Buenos Aires during this time. Temperatures near to below normal,

except possibly hotter in southern crop areas.

Joel Burgio