Mercado global terá déficit de oferta de 800 mil scs em 2014/15 - OIC
O mercado global de café estará em
déficit de 800 mil sacas de 60 kg na temporada 2014/15, por perdas na colheita
de arábica pela seca no maior produtor global, o Brasil, e problemas causados
por doença fúngica na América Central, afirmou uma autoridade da
Organização Internacional do Café (OIC). Apesar disso, o mundo tem estoques
suficientes para atender ao consumo projetado de 146 milhões de sacas, disse na
sexta-feira o diretor-executivo da OIC, o brasileiro Roberio Oliveira Silva,
durante conferência na Etiópia. As informações partem da Reuters Brasil.

    Ainda assim, a projeção --a primeira vez que a OIC colocou um número
sobre o déficit esperado-- vai reforçar a preocupação de que os danos da
seca no Brasil levem a uma menor safra em 2015/16 no país. Seria o primeiro
déficit global no mercado global de café em cinco anos.

    Silva disse que a demanda por arábica do Brasil em 2015/16 vai superar a
oferta em 3 milhões de sacas. Essa é uma porção importante das exportações
anuais projetadas em 32,5 milhões de sacas. Ele afirmou que, apesar da falta
de estimativas governamentais, acredita que a produção brasileira de arábica
vai ser significativamente afetada na próxima temporada.

    "Minha percepção sobre isso, sendo um brasileiro e falando com muitas
pessoas do Brasil, sem ter uma estimativa do governo, é que vamos ter problemas
 no próximo ano em termos de safra", afirmou Silva.

    "A questão principal continua a ser o potencial da próxima safra no
Brasil, para 2015/16", disse Silva. "A safra de arábica vai sofrer."

    Problemas na safra do Brasil, juntamente com os danos de uma doença
fúngica conhecida como roya na América Central, impulsionaram os preços do
café arábica na ICE Futures neste ano para máximas de dois anos e meio de
2,2910 dólares por libra-peso, embora desde então eles tenham caído para até
 1,8640 dólar.

     Silva acrescentou que a arbitragem entre arábica e o café robusta, mais
barato e de menor qualidade, dobrou nos últimos seis meses, causando um
deslocamento da demanda em direção ao robusta. 

DÓLAR AMERICANO FIRMA E PRESSIONA COMMODITIES, Por Rodrigo Costa 

Comentário Semanal - de 3 a 7 de novembro de 2014
DÓLAR AMERICANO FIRMA E PRESSIONA COMMODITIES
O Banco Central Europeu aprovou com unanimidade o plano de compra de títulos da entidade, que incrementará seu balanço em 1 trilhão de euros para os próximos dois anos, e o presidente Mario Draghi disse que estudará outros estímulos para a região – embora sempre mencione que é necessário esforços dos países membros em fazer reformas estruturais.
O desemprego nos Estados Unidos no mês de outubro caiu para 5.8%, o nível mais baixo desde julho de 2008. A boa notícia vem acompanhada do aumento da participação na força de trabalho, e estes fatores contribuíram para o Dow Jones e o S&P500 fazerem novas altas históricas – uma bela recuperação da queda durante o mês que chegou próximo a 9% em um momento.
O dólar americano neste cenário reina quase que absoluto, firmando bastante sobre diversas moedas, e pressionando as commodities – que são denominadas em dólar.
O café em Nova Iorque fechou a semana com perdas de US$ 7.41 por saca, e em Londres apenas US$ 1.74 mais baixo. Diante de uma liquidação de fundos em diversas matérias-primas e de um Real que negociou a R$ 2.5881, a performance não foi de toda ruim.
Por outro lado o gráfico fica vulnerável e um novo mergulho abaixo de 180.00 centavos para o contrato de março de 2014 vai causar um frio na espinha dos altistas que acompanham a posição comprada dos fundos de perto. Aliás, muito tem se falado sobre a liquidação dos fundos de índice que de fato terão que diminuir sua posição, mas que só acontecerá no começo de 2015 e eu particularmente acho improvável que alguém se antecipe as estas vendas antes de ter uma idéia do pegamento das floradas no Brasil..
O mercado físico foi um pouco melhor movimentado, muito embora em volume tímido. Compradores mantêm uma postura calma no gerenciamento dos seus livros, aproveitando para fazer fixações (leia-se, comprar futuros) já que os diferenciais não estão tão interessantes quanto há duas semanas.
A tranquilidade dos países consumidores é reflexo do constante incremento dos estoques no destino, transferência que é justificada pela subida dos preços no ano e que mantém o fluxo alto com os vendedores performando disciplinadamente suas vendas feitas durante todo o período. Prova da movimentação do inventário é o recorde que o Brasil acaba de bater nos três primeiros meses de embarque de seu ano safra, com um volume de exportação de 12,378,146 sacas, atrás apenas dos 12,083,164 sacas de julho a outubro de 2010.
Outro país que se destaca é a Colômbia, que tanto o volume de produção como de exportação não para de subir, voltando aos patamares que não víamos desde 2008. A Guatemala, entretanto, teve a pior exportação acumulada em doze meses desde 1993/1994, com um total de 3,11 milhões de sacas, sofrendo ainda os efeitos da ferrugem que infestou seus cafezais.
Novas estimativas para a safra brasileira de 2015/2016 estão sendo comentadas por alguns agentes, e os números estão menos pessimistas do que anteriormente se falava – não custa dizer que ainda é prematuro falar algo diante de tanta incerteza. Para fins de exercício devemos questionar os alarmistas que apontam para uma safra menor que 40 milhões de sacas, pois se a produção de conillon for de 17 milhões de sacas, teremos que ver um volume da produção do arábica menor do que 23 milhões de sacas para que isto aconteça.
As chuvas têm sido mais regulares, com volume razoável, e com isto as fotos mostram árvores todas salpicadas de branco. Porém em diversas regiões nota-se um desfolhamento acentuado, fazendo com que agrônomos alertem para um pegamento aquém do ideal.
O COT (relatório de posicionamento dos traders) indicou que os fundos diminuíram seus longs para os níveis das conversas de “pré-seca” de outubro, o que me faz imaginar que não veremos uma liquidação muito maior, pois muitos querem ao menos esperar até Dezembro para terem uma noção melhor das lavouras brasileiras.
Uma recuperação do dólar e o arábica respeitando os 180 centavos, vão desestimular os vendedores e na sequência deve provocar uma correção que acelerará recompras com um eventual rompimento dos nível de US$ 193.70 para contrato de março de 2015.
Uma boa semana e bons negócios a todos.
Rodrigo Costa*

ICE Coffee Hits Support Zone -- Technical Analysis

Kira Brecht

  The near term technical trend outlook is bearish for ICE March coffee futures, but the market has

fallen to a support zone that could stabilize price action.

ICE March coffee recently traded down 295 points at $1.8955 a pound.

  Since hitting a recent high at $2.2910 on October 13, the bears have been in control of the

short-term trend, driving coffee prices lower to the November 4 low at $1.8640. Coffee prices have

retreated swiftly in recent weeks and have now hit a support zone, which could stall or slow the

recent selling pressure. The market is testing long-term 200-day moving average support at $1.8931.

Coffee prices breached the 200-day moving average briefly on Tuesday, but rebounded above that zone

by the final bell.

  The March coffee contract has been trading above its 200-day moving average since late January. It

is largely considered to be a proxy for the long-term trend is a widely watched technical indicator.

This area could act as support in the short-term.

  Overall, the shorter-term moving average outlook is bearish for March coffee as the contract is

trading below its 20-day, 40-day and 100-day moving averages.

  However, daily momentum studies, including the 9-day relative strength index and slow stochastics

have fallen to oversold levels on the recent coffee price retreat. The oversold readings reveal that

coffee prices are vulnerable to a period of sideways consolidation or even upward correction. The

bears may be losing some steam.

  On a multi-month basis, March coffee futures have traded back and forth within a wide range band

since April. Minor trends have been seen, but the larger trend is neutral between major resistance

at $2.2450-$2.2910 and major support at $1.6645. There is an intervening support zone at $1.8060,

the mid-September swing low. That zone is important near term chart support and was the starting

point for the minor rally move seen in September and early October.

  The combination of the 200-day moving average, the proximity of the mid-September swing low, along

with oversold momentum readings, could stall the recent selling pressure. Or, the bears could drive

for a quick test of the September low at $1.8060, but then that floor could act as a sticking point.

  Bottom line? The near term trend outlook is weak. But, the market is oversold and near important

technical chart support levels. The larger multi-month trend for coffee prices remains neutral and

choppy within a large range. For now, the bears may need to pause to take a rest after the

significant price slide seen from the mid-October high.

  But, if major support at the 200-day moving average and then the September swing low at $1.8060

cracks, it will show the bears remain in firm control of the trend. If that were to unfold, March

coffee would be vulnerable to additional price deterioration with a major target at the July 15 low

at $1.6645.

Safra de café do Brasil em 2015 deve atingir até 47 mi sacas, prevê Rabobank

(Reportagem de Reese Ewing)

A safra de café do Brasil no ano que vem deverá atingir, na melhor das hipóteses, 47 milhões de sacas de 60 kg, estável ante o volume de 2014, previu um analista do Rabobank.

Rafael Barbosa, especialista de alimentos e agronegócio do banco, disse esperar o retorno das chuvas nas próximas semanas às regiões de café atingidas pela seca, o que provavelmente desencadeará o florescimento generalizado em todo o cinturão produtor para a temporada 2015.

Mesmo assim, ele não vê "muito espaço" para uma colheita muito maior no próximo ano, mesmo que as chuvas ocorram com regularidade a partir de agora pelo resto da temporada.

"Minha opinião é que estamos começando uma safra com potencial em 2015 para o mesmo tamanho da de 2014: 47 milhões de sacas", disse Barbosa.

"A partir de agora, até o início da colheita, o clima vai definir se é possível --ou não-- de se atingir esse potencial", afirmou.

Ele acrescentou que, se as chuvas não se concretizarem ou se houver mais problemas climáticos para o desenvolvimento da nova safra no maior produtor global, "poderíamos ver uma diminuição de oferta (em produção) no próximo ano e uma colheita consideravelmente menor".

Mas ele ressalvou que este não era o seu cenário básico.

"Eu assumo que as chuvas voltarão e que o tempo vai se desenvolver normalmente."

Segundo Barbosa, das 47 milhões de sacas colhidas na safra deste ano, os grãos arábica representaram 30 milhões de sacas e os de robusta, 17 milhões.

Na próxima semana, chuvas cobrem grande parte da área agrícola do Brasil, inclusive regiões de café, segundo a Somar Meteorologia.

Fonte: Reuters

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Early Ag Weather Watch - Oct 30

 

EARLY LOOK WEATHER REPORT

 

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:
HIGH WED...94 AT THERMAL CA
LOW  WED...11 AT HETTINGER ND
24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 06:00 PM CDT: CHARLESTON WV 0.96 INCH

 

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

 

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the first
few days of this period, although there is a slight difference as it concerns
timing of a trough that moves west to east across the northern US and Great
Lakes region during this period. The models are in fair agreement during the
last couple of days of the period. I am using a little more of today's European
model as it concerns the last part of the period.
Today's US model shows a strong short wave trough tracking from the northern
plains across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region from Thursday to
Saturday of next week. If real this would likely mean somewhat colder weather
returning briefly at the end of the period. The European model is weaker with
this feature and would suggest no significant change in temperatures. Neither
model has much moisture associated with the trough in the US while the US model
has somewhat more precipitation moving across southern Canada.

 

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

 

MATO GROSSO/GOIAS, BRAZIL (SOYBEANS): A somewhat drier period through Sunday
will favor planting in areas that received significant rains last week and have
adequate soil moisture. The next chance for scattered coverage rain appears to
be early next week.

 

SAO PAULO AND MINAS GERAIS BRAZIL (COFFEE, SUGARCANE): The region looks to be
somewhat drier and somewhat warmer during the next 4-5 days, although not
totally dry since there will be a few showers occurring at times. The period
Monday through Wednesday of next week looks to be more active. Increasing
showers should favor flowering coffee and developing sugarcane during that time
frame.

 

MIDWEST: Rain returns to the southern growing areas late in the 5 day and early
in the 6-10 period, leading to slow downs in the harvest of summer crops and
the planting of winter wheat. A more favorable pattern for field work elsewhere
in the region during this period.

 

DELTA: Improving conditions for summer crop harvests and winter wheat planting
during at least the next 5 days. Wet weather may redevelop after that leading
to field work delays.

 

NORTH PLAINS: Mostly favorable harvest weather during the next 7-10 days.

 

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS: Mostly favorable conditions for the harvest of summer
crops and the planting of winter wheat during the next 4 days. Mostly favorable
conditions for developing winter wheat at this time. Rain in southern growing
areas after this period should help maintain/improve growing conditions.

 

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): Hotter, drier weather continues for another 4
or 5 days. This likely means further planting delays for maize through north
and west areas. A strong trough moves in after that which has the potential to
bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to the region.

 

UKRAINE/WEST AND SOUTH RUSSIA: Drier weather and variable temperatures during
the next 5-7 days. This favors any late summer crop harvests and the final
planting effort for winter grains. Soil moisture should favor development of
winter grains in west and south areas but it may be too dry is some north and
east growing areas.

 

INDIA: Tropical cyclone 04a, with 50 knot winds, was located near 20.2n/64.3 at
0900 gmt Thursday or in the northern Arabian Sea about 294 miles east of
Masirah island. The system has been moving towards the northeast at 5 knots.
This system is now expected to weaken and dissipate over water before reaching
the coast of either southeast Pakistan or northwest Gujarat India.

 

EXPANDED SUMMARIES/FORECASTS:

 

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

 

Summary...

 

WEST: Dry yesterday. A little drizzle has developed over western areas during
the night. Temperatures averaged near normal yesterday.

 

EAST: A little light rain in the northeast, drier elsewhere in the region.
Temperatures averaged near to slightly below normal.

 

Forecast...

 

WEST: Mostly dry today through Saturday. Temperatures average above normal
today, below or well below normal Friday and Saturday.
Mostly dry Sunday. Chance for rain or showers through northern Missouri and
southeast Iowa during Monday through early Tuesday. Drier elsewhere in the
region during this time. Mostly dry later Tuesday. Temperatures average near to
above normal.

 

EAST: A few light or very light showers may occur today or tonight, favoring
southern and eastern areas. Showers may linger in the east, drier west, during
Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures average near normal today, below
normal tomorrow and Saturday.
Mostly dry Sunday. Chance for showers or rain through southern Illinois
across to the Ohio river valley during Monday or Tuesday. Only light showers
through northeast areas during this period, little through the northwest.
Temperatures average below normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday and
Tuesday.

 

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal
during this period. Rainfall near to above normal south, near to below normal
north.

 

North Plains (Spring Wheat, Corn, Soybeans)

 

Summary: Dry or with only a few very light showers through southwest North
Dakota during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above normal through the
west, below normal central and east.

 

Forecast: Mostly dry today through early Saturday. Showers or light rain may
develop through the central Montana area later Saturday or during Saturday
night, continued dry elsewhere in the region during this time. Temperatures
average above normal in the west during this period. The eastern areas should
be colder today and Friday before warming to near normal during Saturday.
Chance for showers or scattered light precipitation during Sunday. Drier
Monday. Dry Tuesday. Temperatures average near to above normal during this
period.

 

6-10 Day Outlook...Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal
during this period, coolest northeast areas. Rainfall near to below normal.

 

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Sorghum)

 

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near to
above normal yesterday.

http://www.agrimoney.com/news/price-hopes-slow-brazilian-growers-coffee-sales--7634.html

Price hopes slow Brazilian growers' coffee sales

Coffee growers in Brazil are withholding crop sales in expectation of higher prices ahead, despite forecasts for rain for drought-hit plantations, expectations which sent futures tumbling again on Wednesday.

Producers in the Zona de Mata Mineira, in the south east of Minas Gerais, Brazil's top coffee growing state, and in Maogiana have sold less than 20% of this year's coffee harvest, according to research institute Cepea.

And while growers in some other regions have sold a far higher proportion, with farmers in north western Parana having priced 60% of their crop, this may be of a far smaller harvest.

Parana's coffee production, all of arabica beans, has fallen particularly heavily this year, hurt by frost last year as well as a lack of moisture, tumbling 69% to 510m bags, according to the official Conab crop bureau.

Zona de Mata output, for instance, fell by 36% to 3.02m bags.

'Major concerns'

The reluctance to sell, despite prices which this month hit a two-year high of 225.50 cents a pound for New York-traded arabica coffee futures, reflects expectations of further appreciation to come.

"Producers have been limiting sales of the 2014-15 crop, expecting a better market definition and higher prices," Cepea said, after a survey of growers.

"Many players are expecting price rises, based on the possible smaller production because of the dry weather."

Persistent dryness has provoked "major concerns" over blossoming, a stage which requires follow-up rains to ensure flowers set and form the cherries which will be harvested next year.

Even though rains are already returning to Brazil's coffee belt, and are expected to grow particularly next week, while the moisture "might help some crops to recover vitality, it is important to highlight that, in some coffee crops, losses are irreversible", said Cepea, whcih is attached to Sao Paulo University.

"Some producers in southern area in Minas Gerais already estimate a 30% loss in [2015] production."

Prices tumble

However, the comments came as expectations for Brazilian rains extended a correction in coffee futures, which closed down 4.3% at 191.10 cents a pound in New York for December delivery.

That is the weakest finish of the month, and down 15% from the early-month high.

The fall also took the contract back below its 50-day and 75-day moving averages - weak chart signals, although key technically to the contract's prospects is that its 200-day moving average, which it has not closed below since January, and an uptrend line hold in the 183-185 cents a pound area.

Meteorologists at Somar forecast that rains in Minas Gerais will reach 15mm-70mm (0.6-2.8 inches) by Sunday, with rainfall spreading more widely over coffee-growing regions from next week.

Early Ag Weather Watch - Oct 22

EARLY LOOK WEATHER REPORT

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...95 AT EL CENTRO NAS CA AND PALM SPRINGS CA AND BULLHEAD CITY AZ

LOW  TUE...22 AT MOUNT WASHINGTON NH

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 06:00 PM CDT: W PALM BEACH FL  2.64  INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are not in very good agreement during the 6-10

day period today. I am using a little more of today's European model and my

ideas from yesterday. However, there is much uncertainty in the outlook today.

The models both show the first trough over the plains at day 6 moving east

and lifting north during the middle of the period. This is where the

similarities end. Today's US model shows another trough, much stronger than the

first, moving over the western US before crossing the Rockies and moving into

the plains later in the period. This model also hints at a significant northern

branch trough dropping southward over the Canadian Prairies before moving into

the north-central US and eventually merging with the first trough over the

plains. If real this would suggest a turn to colder weather through the middle

of the country and a turn to wet weather for the plains and Midwest regions.

This model also picks up on a low moving out of the Caribbean and into the Gulf

of Mexico during the outlook period, suggesting a potential tropical storm or

hurricane. The US model is showing a complex weather pattern for next week and

is unlikely to verify on all aspects of this pattern. However, it is difficult

to choose which aspect might verify or if any of the ideas of the model would

verify at all. The European model shows the western trough dropping southward

over the west coast states during the outlook period and remaining west of the

Rockies through day 10. The European model does not see the Caribbean system at

all and it is further north and more eastward moving with the Canadian trough

during the period. I would like to go with this model with no regrets, however

this is the same model that yesterday showed a cut off low moving over the

southern plains region during the outlook period.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

MATO GROSSO/GOIAS, BRAZIL (SOYBEANS): There appears to be some chance for

increasing shower activity for Mato Grosso and Goias at the end of this week

and also during the extended range outlook. However, it is still not clear

whether or not this means normal rains for the region. If the rainfall comes in

less than expected the temperatures would remain hot and planting delays will

continue.

SAO PAULO AND MINAS GERAIS BRAZIL (COFFEE, SUGARCANE): Sprinkles and light

showers early this week were not enough to ease stress to coffee trees that

should be flowering at this time of the year or to recently planted new crop

sugarcane. The next chance for scattered showers comes this weekend. This rain

chance may favor areas north and east of Sao Paulo and southwest Minas Gerais.

If verified this would imply a better chance for significant showers in major

coffee areas and a somewhat less chance in key sugarcane and citrus areas.

MIDWEST: Mostly favorable conditions for the delayed harvest of summer crops

and the planting effort for winter wheat during the next 5 days. After that

period the weather pattern is more uncertain in nature.

DELTA: Mainly dry weather is forecast to continue for at least the next 5 to 7

days, possibly longer. This should help improve conditions for mature crops and

the harvest as well as for planting winter wheat.

NORTH PLAINS: Mostly dry weather and warm temperatures during the next 5-7 days

will favor crop dry down and harvest progress.

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS: Drier weather will improve field conditions for the

harvest of summer crops and the planting effort for winter wheat. Soil moisture

supplied by recent rains will favor development of earlier planted winter

wheat.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): Drier weather covers most north and west maize

areas during the next 7-10 days along with hotter temperatures. This likely

means delays to planting maize in these locations. The southeast maize and the

major sugarcane areas may see afternoon showers or thundershowers during this

period and less hot weather. This favors planting of maize and development of

sugarcane for these locations.

UKRAINE/WEST AND SOUTH RUSSIA: A cold high pressure system will move southward

to cover the Central Region, the Black Soils Region and the Volga valley of

Russia during the next 5 days. This may favor fall field work but it will also

slow development of winter wheat.

INDIA: Monsoon showers continue for the southern and west-central areas of the

south India region at this time. Little elsewhere in the region. Drier weather

favors maturing summer crops and any harvesting. However, dry weather may be

unfavorable for late filling summer crops and any early developing winter crops

at this time.

TROPICS: Tropical depression 9, with 35 mph winds, was located near 19.4n/92.3w

at 4 am CDT today or over the Bay of Campeche in the southwest Gulf of Mexico

and 120 miles west-southwest of Campeche, Mexico. The system has been moving

towards the east at 6 mph. It is expected to become a tropical storm today

before moving inland over the southwest Yucatan Peninsula tonight and Thursday.

The system should continue to weaken as it moves across the southern Yucatan

Peninsula Thursday and Thursday night. It emerges into the Caribbean Sea during

Friday and continues eastward from there.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES/FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

WEST: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above to well

above normal yesterday.

EAST: Dry or with only a few very light showers through eastern areas during

the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near to above normal through western

areas, near to below normal east.

Forecast....

WEST: Scattered showers and thundershowers, 0.10-0.75 inch and locally heavier,

through western and central areas later today or during tonight. A few light

showers through eastern areas during Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures

average above to well above normal during this period.

Mostly dry Saturday. Dry or with only a few showers or thundershowers in

northern areas Sunday. Scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers

are possible during Monday. Temperatures average above normal during this

period.

EAST: Dry today. Dry or with only a few light showers through western areas

Thursday. Dry Friday. Temperatures turn cooler today and Thursday, especially

through eastern areas. Warmer again during Friday.

Mostly dry Saturday. Dry or with only a few showers and thundershowers

developing in Wisconsin Sunday or Sunday night. Scattered showers and

thundershowers may reach western Illinois and western Wisconsin during Monday

or Monday night, continued mostly dry elsewhere in the region. Temperatures

average above to well above normal.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal.

Rainfall near to below normal.

North Plains (Spring Wheat, Corn, Soybeans)

Summary: A few light showers west, fair central and east, during the past 24

hours. Temperatures averaged above to well above normal.

Forecast: A few light showers with locally heavier for the southeast portion of

the belt today, dry elsewhere in the region today. Mostly dry tomorrow and

Friday. Temperatures average well above normal during this period.

Mostly dry Saturday. Dry or with only a few light to locally moderate

showers, favoring the east and southeast areas, during Sunday or Monday.

Temperatures average above to near normal during this period.

6-10 Day Outlook...Temperatures are expected to average above to near normal.

Rainfall near to below normal.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Sorghum)

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above

normal.

Forecast: A few light to locally moderate showers may occur today or tonight,

favoring central and northern areas. Drier during Thursday. Dry Friday.

Temperatures average well above normal.

Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday. Dry or with only a few light showers

developing Monday or Monday night. Temperatures average well above normal

during this period.

6-10 Day Outlook...Temperatures are expected to average above to near normal.

Rainfall near to below normal.

Mato Grosso/Goias, Brazil (Soybeans)

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above to

well above normal through north and east areas, cooler southwest. Highs

yesterday averaged 95-100F (35-38C) through Mato Grosso, 93-104F (34-40C)

through Goias and 85-90F (30-32C) through Mato Grosso Do Sul.

Forecast: Mostly dry today and Thursday. Chance for a few showers and

thundershowers developing Friday or Friday night, favoring western areas.

Temperatures average near to above normal today, above normal tomorrow and

Friday.

A few showers and thundershowers during Saturday. Scattered showers and

thundershowers north, drier south, during Sunday. Dry Monday. Temperatures near

to above normal.

6-10 Day Outlook...Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal

during the period Monday through next Friday. Rainfall is expected to average

near normal during this time.

Joel Burgio