Kansas City, October 19 (World Weather, Inc.) – Scattered showers and thunderstorms occurred in Sul de Minas coffee production areas Friday into Sunday. The precipitation was erratic and mostly light, but a few moderate to locally great amounts were suggested in satellite imagery. Most of the precipitation failed to be great enough to induce flowering, but one or two locations might have been an exception if the satellite imagery estimates are correct. Additional showers will occur early this week followed by a few days of net drying again and then additional rainfall during the coming weekend. A third wave of rain is expected in Sul de Minas and Sao Paulo in early November. Each successive rain event is expected to have a little more coverage and rain intensity relative to that preceding it. In the meantime, tropical weather may impact parts of Cuba and Mexico.
BRAZIL
Scattered showers developed in a portion of Sul de Minas and northeastern Sao Paulo Friday into Sunday morning. The precipitation totals were mostly light. Surface weather observations suggested few totals more than 7 millimeters resulted, but satellite imagery suggests some locally greater amounts occurred.

"Much of the weekend precipitation should have been lost to evaporation without inducing any flowering, but there is a small chance that a “few” areas got enough rain to flower." Temperatures were very warm with highest readings Friday and Saturday in the 30s Celsius with extremes to 40 in minor coffee production areas in northern Sao Paulo and northwestern Minas Gerais. A few coastal areas in Bahia reported highest temperatures in the upper 20s.

Lowest morning temperatures were in the upper teens through the middle 20s. The exception was in southeastern Bahia where readings were in the middle teens.
Weather conditions this week will favor scattered showers in coffee production areas. The precipitation will be quite variable with tonight into Tuesday and again during the weekend being the most likely periods for rain in Sao Paulo and Sul de Minas. Rain will also impact parts of Parana, Zona de Mata, Rio de Janeiro and portions of Espirito Santo and west-central Minas Gerais this week. Rain totals will vary widely and just like two to three weeks ago some pockets of flowering will result. No widespread general flowering is expected – at least not as a byproduct from the early week rain.

Rain totals tonight into Tuesday will vary from 3 to 16 millimeters most often, but there will be some local totals of 16 to 30 millimeters. These greater amounts will be highly localized and may favor more northern Sul de Minas crop areas more than the south, but the potential for stronger thunderstorms will be present in most areas. The greater rainfall may bring out some flowering, especially in those areas where rain falls two days in a row. However, with all of the stress that has occurred recently some crops may need a more convincing amount of rain to fall before flowering can occur. That may evolve during the coming weekend.

Rainfall late Friday into Monday, October 27, will range from 10 to 30 millimeters with a few greater amounts possibly between 30 and 50 millimeters. However, confidence in these greater amounts is low because of the amount of time between now and the weekend in which the forecast could be changed toward less rain. The greater amounts will be localized again, but slightly more numerous than the greater rainfall tonight into Tuesday.
A third wave of rain October 30-November 2 has potential to bring greater rainfall, but the event is too far out in time to have good confidence.

"World Weather, Inc. believes the trend is correct bringing a slow increase in rainfall across key coffee production areas. The first wave of rain tonight into Tuesday will be important in raising humidity and preparing the atmosphere for greater rainfall potentials this coming weekend and again in early November. As we have stated, multiple times in the past few weeks, the rainfall should slowly improve in late October and early November, but it will not suddenly become widespread and significant. That is likely to translate into uneven flowering and erratic rainfall that should improve as time moves along."

Temperatures will slowly cool this week as each wave of rain moves through raising humidity. Highs early this week will be in the upper 20s and lower to a few middle 30s from Parana to central Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro while in the 30s to near 40 further north. All coffee areas may heat up again Wednesday into Friday with highs in the 30s and some extremes near 40 in the north. Cooling will then take place again during the coming weekend with upper 20s and lower to a few middle 30s likely in rainfall areas and slightly warmer in the far north where rainfall will still be more limited. Low temperatures each night this week will mostly be in the middle teens to middle 20s. Next week’s temperatures will still be a little warmer biased, but much closer to normal than those of this week.

Café -  20-10-2014

Sumário do Tempo

O padrão atmosférico mudou e uma frente fria conseguiu chegar ao Sudeste, trazendo chuvas em forma de pancadas para as regiões produtoras de café. A chuva ainda é muito irregular em termos de distribuição e volumes, ainda assim é um sinal do retorno da umidade para o Sudeste. Entre essa segunda e terça-feira chove em Minas Gerais, cobrindo zona da Mata, sul e Cerrado. Na quarta-feira, a frente fria leva algumas chuvas para a Bahia, enfraquecendo na sequencia. Nesse período, o tempo abre nas demais áreas produtoras do Sudeste.

Análise agrícola

Tempo seco e quente compromete cafezais

A primeira quinzena de outubro termina terrível para a produção de café do Brasil. As chuvas do final de setembro induziram a abertura dos botões florais em vários municípios produtores de São Paulo e Minas Gerais, porém o tempo voltou a ficar firme e comprometeu o pegamento da florada.

Vale salientar que a florada do final de setembro e início de outubro foi muito irregular, ou seja, não foram todas as regiões que a registraram, nem toda planta. Ainda há botões florais para abrir, que esperam somente a próxima chuva.

Com a demora na ocorrência dessas chuvas a planta está sobre forte estresse hídrico e térmico, por isso, muitos botões florais poderão morrer. Com isso, a produtividade para a safra 2015 ficará comprometida. Ainda é cedo para mensurar as reais perdas da produção cafeeira, mas é fato que será menor do que a média para um ano de bienalidade baixa, como será a de 2015.

As plantas estão com baixos índices foliares e isso poderá colaborar para um percentual mais baixo de pegamento dos botões florais e até mesmo o abortamento dos chumbinhos.

Quando as chuvas retornarem de forma definitiva nas regiões cafeeiras – no mês de novembro – as plantas serão estimuladas a terem novas floradas e isso poderá minimizar as perdas ocorridas até o momento. Mas como mencionado acima, a produção de café em 2015 deverá sofrer reduções significativas.

Previsão para os próximos 10 dias

Para essa semana não há previsão de chuvas sobre as regiões cafeeiras e as temperaturas ainda ficarão muito acima da média para essa época do ano, o que agrava ainda mais a situação dos cafezais, porque paralisa o seu metabolismo.

As chuvas só voltarão para as regiões cafeeiras em meados da semana que vem, mas os volumes acumulados serão insuficientes para elevar os níveis de umidade do solo a patamares confortáveis ao desenvolvimento das plantas. Chuvas em bons volumes e com boa regularidade só deverão ser registradas no finalzinho do mês de outubro e ao longo de novembro.

---

Coffee report - 10/20/2014  - (google translator)

Summary of Time

The atmospheric pattern changed and a cold front could reach the Southeast, bringing rains shaped strokes for coffee growing regions. The rain is still very uneven in distribution volumes and still is a sign of the return of moisture to the Southeast. Between that Monday and Tuesday it rains in Minas Gerais, covering the Forest, Cerrado and south zone. On Wednesday, a cold front brings some rain to Bahia, weakening the sequence. During this period, time opens the other producing areas of the Southeast.

agricultural analysis

Dry and hot weather undertakes plantations

The first half of October ends terrible for coffee production in Brazil. The rains of late September led the opening of the buds in various producing municipalities of São Paulo and Minas Gerais, but the time came to stand firm and committed the fixation of flowering.

It is noteworthy that the bloom from late September and early October was very irregular, ie, were not all regions that recorded, not every plant. There is still floral to open, waiting only the buttons next rain.

With the delay in any rainfall the plant is under severe drought and heat stress, so many flower buds may die. Thus, productivity for the 2015 season will be compromised. It is still early to measure the actual losses from coffee production, but it is a fact that will be less than the average for one-year low biannuality, as will 2015.

The plants are low foliar indices and this may contribute to a lower percentage of fixation of the buds and even abortion of pellets.

When the rains return permanently in the coffee regions - in November - the plants will be encouraged to have new blooms and this can minimize the losses incurred so far. But as mentioned above, coffee production in 2015 is likely to suffer significant reductions.

Forecast for the next 10 days

For this week there is no forecast of rain on coffee regions and temperatures will still be well above average for this time of year, which further aggravates the situation of the coffee plantations, because paralyzes your metabolism.

The rains only come back to the coffee regions in the middle of next week, but the accumulated volumes are insufficient to raise levels of soil moisture to comfortable levels for plant growth. Good rains in volumes and with good regularity should be recorded at the very end of October and throughout November.

Commodities Market Impact Weather: Extensive Drier Trend

  OMAHA--A week-long dry pattern for the central U.S., and an uncertain rainfall outlook in central

Brazil, are the primary weather items for the commodity trade's attention Friday.

DRY CENTRAL U.S. PATTERN

  The DTN ag weather forecast calls for drier conditions in the entire central U.S. during the next

week to 10 days. This pattern will favor field and crop drying along with harvest progress and

winter wheat planting in the Midwest and Delta, while maintaining favorable conditions for crop

activity in the Plains as well.

MORE EXTREME HEAT IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

  Extreme heat and mostly dry conditions remain in central Brazil for another week. This is highly

unfavorable for any early-planted soybeans and it likely discourages farmers from further planting

at this time. The longer-range outlook for the end of the 10-day period suggests some chance for

increasing showers in the region. If real, this would likely help bring temperatures closer to

normal. However, this is a fairly long-range outlook so its veracity is uncertain.

HOT WEEKEND FOR BRAZIL COFFEE BELT

  Brazil coffee and sugarcane areas continue with very hot and dry through Monday. This puts extreme

stress on any flowering coffee trees and development of recently-planted sugarcane. The longer-range

outlook calls for scattered light showers with isolated heavier next Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday

look drier again, but probably not as hot. The extended 10-day weather outlook shows some increase

in shower and thundershowers are possible. This is a fairly long-range outlook so its veracity is

uncertain.

BENEFICIAL RAINS IN BLACK SEA REGION

  Light to moderate showers with locally heavier intensity developed through southwest, central and

northeast Ukraine during the past 48 hours. A few showers have also moved into the Black Soils

region of Russia during the past 24 hours. A second area of light to moderate rain is expected to

develop over Crimea and head into North Caucasus Russia Friday. This area may see additional showers

during the weekend. Showers maintain more favorable growing conditions for winter grains while

causing some delays to the harvest of summer crops.

VARIABLE RAINFALL IN SOUTH AFRICA

  South Africa sugarcane areas along with eastern and northern maize areas had moderate to heavy

rainfall in the past two days. The rain will favor early development of the new sugarcane crop, but

there may be some field work delays. Showers in the eastern maize areas may encourage more planting.

However, western maize areas are still too dry for widespread planting to begin.

Café -  17-10-2014

Sumário do Tempo

Calor volta forte à Região Sudeste neste fim de semana, quando também devem retornar as chuvas típicas de verão. Com as altas temperaturas e o gradual retorno da umidade, não estão descartadas pancadas de chuva, que mesmo muito isoladas, podem ser fortes e acompanhadas de temporais. No início da próxima semana chega uma frente fria que traz chuva mais espalhada sobre o Sudeste, mas ainda assim com baixo volume acumulado.

Análise agrícola

Tempo seco e quente compromete cafezais

A primeira quinzena de outubro termina terrível para a produção de café do Brasil. As chuvas do final de setembro induziram a abertura dos botões florais em vários municípios produtores de São Paulo e Minas Gerais, porém o tempo voltou a ficar firme e comprometeu o pegamento da florada.

Vale salientar que a florada do final de setembro e início de outubro foi muito irregular, ou seja, não foram todas as regiões que a registraram, nem toda planta. Ainda há botões florais para abrir, que esperam somente a próxima chuva.

Com a demora na ocorrência dessas chuvas a planta está sobre forte estresse hídrico e térmico, por isso, muitos botões florais poderão morrer. Com isso, a produtividade para a safra 2015 ficará comprometida. Ainda é cedo para mensurar as reais perdas da produção cafeeira, mas é fato que será menor do que a média para um ano de bienalidade baixa, como será a de 2015.

As plantas estão com baixos índices foliares e isso poderá colaborar para um percentual mais baixo de pegamento dos botões florais e até mesmo o abortamento dos chumbinhos.

Quando as chuvas retornarem de forma definitiva nas regiões cafeeiras – no mês de novembro – as plantas serão estimuladas a terem novas floradas e isso poderá minimizar as perdas ocorridas até o momento. Mas como mencionado acima, a produção de café em 2015 deverá sofrer reduções significativas.

Previsão para os próximos 10 dias

Para essa semana não há previsão de chuvas sobre as regiões cafeeiras e as temperaturas ainda ficarão muito acima da média para essa época do ano, o que agrava ainda mais a situação dos cafezais, porque paralisa o seu metabolismo.

As chuvas só voltarão para as regiões cafeeiras em meados da semana que vem, mas os volumes acumulados serão insuficientes para elevar os níveis de umidade do solo a patamares confortáveis ao desenvolvimento das plantas. Chuvas em bons volumes e com boa regularidade só deverão ser registradas no finalzinho do mês de outubro e ao longo de novembro.

---

Coffee report - 10/17/2014  - (google translator)

Summary of Time

Strong heat back to the Southeast this weekend, when they must also return the typical summer rains. With the high temperatures and the gradual return of moisture, are not discarded rain showers, even very isolated, and may be accompanied by strong thunderstorms. Early next week comes a cold front brings more rain spread over the Southeast, but still with low cumulative volume.

agricultural analysis

Dry and hot weather undertakes plantations

The first half of October ends terrible for coffee production in Brazil. The rains of late September led the opening of the buds in various producing municipalities of São Paulo and Minas Gerais, but the time came to stand firm and committed the fixation of flowering.

It is noteworthy that the bloom from late September and early October was very irregular, ie, were not all regions that recorded, not every plant. There is still floral to open, waiting only the buttons next rain.

With the delay in any rainfall the plant is under severe drought and heat stress, so many flower buds may die. Thus, productivity for the 2015 season will be compromised. It is still early to measure the actual losses from coffee production, but it is a fact that will be less than the average for one-year low biannuality, as will 2015.

The plants are low foliar indices and this may contribute to a lower percentage of fixation of the buds and even abortion of pellets.

When the rains return permanently in the coffee regions - in November - the plants will be encouraged to have new blooms and this can minimize the losses incurred so far. But as mentioned above, coffee production in 2015 is likely to suffer significant reductions.

Forecast for the next 10 days

For this week there is no forecast of rain on coffee regions and temperatures will still be well above average for this time of year, which further aggravates the situation of the coffee plantations, because paralyzes your metabolism.

The rains only come back to the coffee regions in the middle of next week, but the accumulated volumes are insufficient to raise levels of soil moisture to comfortable levels for plant growth. Good rains in volumes and with good regularity should be recorded at the very end of October and throughout November.

Café -  16-10-2014

Sumário do Tempo

Um quadro de tempo mais seco retorna para áreas de café. A frente fria enfraqueceu, depois de causar alguma chuva muito isolada na parte sul de Minas Gerais. Nos próximos dias domina o calor e tempo seco nas áreas de café. No fim de semana, algumas chuvas em forma de pancadas já poderão ser observadas no domingo, entre o Paraná e sul de São Paulo. Na segunda-feira, uma frente fria chega e traz chuva mais espalhada, ainda assim com baixo volume acumulado.

Análise agrícola

Tempo seco e quente compromete cafezais

A primeira quinzena de outubro termina terrível para a produção de café do Brasil. As chuvas do final de setembro induziram a abertura dos botões florais em vários municípios produtores de São Paulo e Minas Gerais, porém o tempo voltou a ficar firme e comprometeu o pegamento da florada.

Vale salientar que a florada do final de setembro e início de outubro foi muito irregular, ou seja, não foram todas as regiões que a registraram, nem toda planta. Ainda há botões florais para abrir, que esperam somente a próxima chuva.

Com a demora na ocorrência dessas chuvas a planta está sobre forte estresse hídrico e térmico, por isso, muitos botões florais poderão morrer. Com isso, a produtividade para a safra 2015 ficará comprometida. Ainda é cedo para mensurar as reais perdas da produção cafeeira, mas é fato que será menor do que a média para um ano de bienalidade baixa, como será a de 2015.

As plantas estão com baixos índices foliares e isso poderá colaborar para um percentual mais baixo de pegamento dos botões florais e até mesmo o abortamento dos chumbinhos.

Quando as chuvas retornarem de forma definitiva nas regiões cafeeiras – no mês de novembro – as plantas serão estimuladas a terem novas floradas e isso poderá minimizar as perdas ocorridas até o momento. Mas como mencionado acima, a produção de café em 2015 deverá sofrer reduções significativas.

Previsão para os próximos 10 dias

Para essa semana não há previsão de chuvas sobre as regiões cafeeiras e as temperaturas ainda ficarão muito acima da média para essa época do ano, o que agrava ainda mais a situação dos cafezais, porque paralisa o seu metabolismo.

As chuvas só voltarão para as regiões cafeeiras em meados da semana que vem, mas os volumes acumulados serão insuficientes para elevar os níveis de umidade do solo a patamares confortáveis ao desenvolvimento das plantas. Chuvas em bons volumes e com boa regularidade só deverão ser registradas no finalzinho do mês de outubro e ao longo de novembro

---

Coffee report - 10/16/2014  - (google translator)

Summary of Time

A framework for drier weather returns to coffee areas. A cold front weakened after causing some very isolated rain in the southern part of Minas Gerais. In the coming days dominates the heat and dry weather in the coffee areas. Over the weekend, some rain shaped bumps can already be observed on Sunday, between the Paraná and southern São Paulo. On Monday, a cold front arrives and brings more scattered rain, still with low cumulative volume.

agricultural analysis

Dry and hot weather undertakes plantations

The first half of October ends terrible for coffee production in Brazil. The rains of late September led the opening of the buds in various producing municipalities of São Paulo and Minas Gerais, but the time came to stand firm and committed the fixation of flowering.

It is noteworthy that the bloom from late September and early October was very irregular, ie, were not all regions that recorded, not every plant. There is still floral to open, waiting only the buttons next rain.

With the delay in any rainfall the plant is under severe drought and heat stress, so many flower buds may die. Thus, productivity for the 2015 season will be compromised. It is still early to measure the actual losses from coffee production, but it is a fact that will be less than the average for one-year low biannuality, as will 2015.

The plants are low foliar indices and this may contribute to a lower percentage of fixation of the buds and even abortion of pellets.

When the rains return permanently in the coffee regions - in November - the plants will be encouraged to have new blooms and this can minimize the losses incurred so far. But as mentioned above, coffee production in 2015 is likely to suffer significant reductions.

Forecast for the next 10 days

For this week there is no forecast of rain on coffee regions and temperatures will still be well above average for this time of year, which further aggravates the situation of the coffee plantations, because paralyzes your metabolism.

The rains only come back to the coffee regions in the middle of next week, but the accumulated volumes are insufficient to raise levels of soil moisture to comfortable levels for plant growth. Good rains in volumes and with good regularity should be recorded at the very end of October and throughout November

Arabica-Coffee Futures Give Up Gains Amid Equities' Slide

Ira Iosebashvili

  Arabica-coffee prices turned lower Wednesday, as investors unnerved by a steep slide in stocks

locked in profits on recent gains.

  Arabica for December on the ICE Futures U.S. exchange settled down 2.7% at $2.1600 a pound, its

steepest slide since Sept. 25. Earlier in the session, prices rose to $2.2455 a pound, less than one

cent away from nearly three-year highs.

  Prices have doubled this year as Brazil's worst drought in decades hurt this season's crop and

weakened trees, casting doubt over next year's harvest from the world's top coffee producer. But

Wednesday's sharp decline in U.S. stocks jangled nerves across asset markets, pushing some investors

to sell, analysts said.

  "At the end of the day, people just decided to take some money off the table and let the smoke

clear and see what happens next," said Jack Scoville, a vice president at Chicago brokerage Price

Futures Group.

  The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 400 points during the day as global growth worries

pushed investors into safe-haven government bonds and gold. The benchmark stock index was recently

down 1.8% at 16026.

  Also pushing down prices was a weaker Brazilian real, analysts said. Brazilian coffee producers

are incentivized to sell more of their beans when the local currency slips against the dollar

because the profits in terms of the real rise. The dollar was recently up 1.4% against the Brazilian

currency, at 2.4368.

  In other markets, orange juice for November was up 1.9% at $1.3680 a pound. Cocoa for December was

up 1.6% to $3,153 a ton.

  Raw sugar for March was down 1.8% to 16.50 cents a pound, while cotton for December was 0.7% lower

at 63.71 cents a pound.

Café -  15-10-2014

Sumário do Tempo

Uma frente fria chegou com fraca intensidade ao litoral do Sudeste, mas não consegue mudar o tempo de forma significativa no interior do Brasil. Esse sistema apenas ameniza um pouco o calor em algumas regiões, como o leste de São Paulo e parte sul de Minas Gerais, além da parte sul da zona da Mata. Nestas regiões, não se descartam algumas chuvas fracas e isoladas, nada que reverta o atual quadro de tempo seco. A chuva significativa e mais volumosa segue concentrada sobre o sul do Brasil.

Análise agrícola

Tempo seco e quente compromete cafezais

A primeira quinzena de outubro termina terrível para a produção de café do Brasil. As chuvas do final de setembro induziram a abertura dos botões florais em vários municípios produtores de São Paulo e Minas Gerais, porém o tempo voltou a ficar firme e comprometeu o pegamento da florada.

Vale salientar que a florada do final de setembro e início de outubro foi muito irregular, ou seja, não foram todas as regiões que a registraram, nem toda planta. Ainda há botões florais para abrir, que esperam somente a próxima chuva.

Com a demora na ocorrência dessas chuvas a planta está sobre forte estresse hídrico e térmico, por isso, muitos botões florais poderão morrer. Com isso, a produtividade para a safra 2015 ficará comprometida. Ainda é cedo para mensurar as reais perdas da produção cafeeira, mas é fato que será menor do que a média para um ano de bienalidade baixa, como será a de 2015.

As plantas estão com baixos índices foliares e isso poderá colaborar para um percentual mais baixo de pegamento dos botões florais e até mesmo o abortamento dos chumbinhos.

Quando as chuvas retornarem de forma definitiva nas regiões cafeeiras – no mês de novembro – as plantas serão estimuladas a terem novas floradas e isso poderá minimizar as perdas ocorridas até o momento. Mas como mencionado acima, a produção de café em 2015 deverá sofrer reduções significativas.

Previsão para os próximos 10 dias

Para essa semana não há previsão de chuvas sobre as regiões cafeeiras e as temperaturas ainda ficarão muito acima da média para essa época do ano, o que agrava ainda mais a situação dos cafezais, porque paralisa o seu metabolismo.

As chuvas só voltarão para as regiões cafeeiras em meados da semana que vem, mas os volumes acumulados serão insuficientes para elevar os níveis de umidade do solo a patamares confortáveis ao desenvolvimento das plantas. Chuvas em bons volumes e com boa regularidade só deverão ser registradas no finalzinho do mês de outubro e ao longo de novembro.

---

Coffee report - 10/15/2014  - (google translator)

Summary of Time

A cold front arrived with little intensity to the coast of the Southeast, but can not change the weather significantly in the interior of Brazil. This system eases just a little heat in some regions, such as east of São Paulo and the southern part of Minas Gerais, in addition to the southern part of the forest zone. In these regions, do not rule out some weak and isolated rains, nothing to reverse the current situation of dry weather. A significant and most voluminous rain is still concentrated over southern Brazil.

Agricultural analysis

Dry and hot weather undertakes plantations

The first half of October ends terrible for coffee production in Brazil. The rains of late September led the opening of the buds in various producing municipalities of São Paulo and Minas Gerais, but the time came to stand firm and committed the fixation of flowering.

It is noteworthy that the bloom from late September and early October was very irregular, ie, were not all regions that recorded, not every plant. There is still floral to open, waiting only the buttons next rain.

With the delay in any rainfall the plant is under severe drought and heat stress, so many flower buds may die. Thus, productivity for the 2015 season will be compromised. It is still early to measure the actual losses from coffee production, but it is a fact that will be less than the average for one-year low biannuality, as will 2015.

The plants are low foliar indices and this may contribute to a lower percentage of fixation of the buds and even abortion of pellets.

When the rains return permanently in the coffee regions - in November - the plants will be encouraged to have new blooms and this can minimize the losses incurred so far. But as mentioned above, coffee production in 2015 is likely to suffer significant reductions.

Forecast for the next 10 days

For this week there is no forecast of rain on coffee regions and temperatures will still be well above average for this time of year, which further aggravates the situation of the coffee plantations, because paralyzes your metabolism.

The rains only come back to the coffee regions in the middle of next week, but the accumulated volumes are insufficient to raise levels of soil moisture to comfortable levels for plant growth. Good rains in volumes and with good regularity should be recorded at the very end of October and throughout November.

Arabica-Coffee Ends at Highest Since January 2012; Cocoa Rebounds

  NEW YORK  -  Arabica-coffee futures settled at a more than two-and-a-half-year-high Tuesday as

continued dry weather fueled concerns over top producer Brazil's next crop.

  Arabica for December on ICE Futures U.S. gained 1.7% to end at $2.2190 a pound, the highest

settlement for the most actively-traded contract since Jan. 20, 2012.

  A severe drought earlier this year crimped output this season in Brazil, the world's top arabica

supplier, according to government estimates. But a lack of rainfall in recent weeks has sparked

worries over whether already weakened trees will produce even less coffee next year.

  Most of the month has been dry for Brazil's main coffee-growing region and rains aren't expected

to hit until next week, according to Sao Paulo-based forecaster Somar Meteorologia.

  The global 2014-15 coffee season, which began Oct. 1, "will likely result in a global deficit next

year," due to lower production, the International Coffee Organization said in a report this week.

  "If it doesn't rain until the end of the month it's going to be a problem," said Rodrigo Costa, an

analyst and a director at New York brokerage Newedge.

  Cocoa for December rose 1.4% to end at $3,102 a ton, despite a sign of lower demand from top

chocolate consumer Europe.

  Europe's third-quarter cocoa grindings fell 1.1% on the year to 327,866 metric tons, figures from

the Brussels-based European Cocoa Association showed Tuesday. The figures, which measure the weight

of cocoa beans processed, are regarded as a proxy for chocolate demand.

  But concerns that Ebola will spread throughout West Africa, which supplies more than two-thirds of

the world's cocoa beans, and hurt the harvest and transport of the raw chocolate ingredient,

encouraged buying, brokers said.

  The World Health Organization said Tuesday that as many as 10,000 new cases a week could be

reported by early December.

  "That created some knee-jerk buying," said Jack Scoville, a vice president at Chicago brokerage

Price Futures Group. "If it does get worse, the market could be effected. Maybe you'll have to have

less Easter chocolate."

Orange-juice concentrate for November ended 0.8% at $1.3425 a pound.

  Raw sugar for March gained 0.8% to settle at 16.81 cents a pound, while cotton for December fell

1.3% to 64.16 cents a pound.

Coffee Rust Effects on Latin America Ease -- Market Talk

  12:51 EDT - Coffee rust, a fungal disease known locally as roya, drove down production in Central

America, the Dominican Republic and Peru by 18% in the 2012-13 season, the International Coffee

Organization says, but by only 2% in the season which ended last month. "The damage from coffee leaf

rust is starting to plateau," says the ICO. But even if these growers recover this year, lower

Brazilian production due to a drought could spell trouble down the road. While supply-demand was

relatively balanced in 2013-14, lower production "will likely result in a global deficit next year."

ICE Dec arabica-coffee futures up 0.9% at $2.1990/lb.