Arabica-Coffee Futures Give Up Gains Amid Equities' Slide

Ira Iosebashvili

  Arabica-coffee prices turned lower Wednesday, as investors unnerved by a steep slide in stocks

locked in profits on recent gains.

  Arabica for December on the ICE Futures U.S. exchange settled down 2.7% at $2.1600 a pound, its

steepest slide since Sept. 25. Earlier in the session, prices rose to $2.2455 a pound, less than one

cent away from nearly three-year highs.

  Prices have doubled this year as Brazil's worst drought in decades hurt this season's crop and

weakened trees, casting doubt over next year's harvest from the world's top coffee producer. But

Wednesday's sharp decline in U.S. stocks jangled nerves across asset markets, pushing some investors

to sell, analysts said.

  "At the end of the day, people just decided to take some money off the table and let the smoke

clear and see what happens next," said Jack Scoville, a vice president at Chicago brokerage Price

Futures Group.

  The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 400 points during the day as global growth worries

pushed investors into safe-haven government bonds and gold. The benchmark stock index was recently

down 1.8% at 16026.

  Also pushing down prices was a weaker Brazilian real, analysts said. Brazilian coffee producers

are incentivized to sell more of their beans when the local currency slips against the dollar

because the profits in terms of the real rise. The dollar was recently up 1.4% against the Brazilian

currency, at 2.4368.

  In other markets, orange juice for November was up 1.9% at $1.3680 a pound. Cocoa for December was

up 1.6% to $3,153 a ton.

  Raw sugar for March was down 1.8% to 16.50 cents a pound, while cotton for December was 0.7% lower

at 63.71 cents a pound.

Café -  15-10-2014

Sumário do Tempo

Uma frente fria chegou com fraca intensidade ao litoral do Sudeste, mas não consegue mudar o tempo de forma significativa no interior do Brasil. Esse sistema apenas ameniza um pouco o calor em algumas regiões, como o leste de São Paulo e parte sul de Minas Gerais, além da parte sul da zona da Mata. Nestas regiões, não se descartam algumas chuvas fracas e isoladas, nada que reverta o atual quadro de tempo seco. A chuva significativa e mais volumosa segue concentrada sobre o sul do Brasil.

Análise agrícola

Tempo seco e quente compromete cafezais

A primeira quinzena de outubro termina terrível para a produção de café do Brasil. As chuvas do final de setembro induziram a abertura dos botões florais em vários municípios produtores de São Paulo e Minas Gerais, porém o tempo voltou a ficar firme e comprometeu o pegamento da florada.

Vale salientar que a florada do final de setembro e início de outubro foi muito irregular, ou seja, não foram todas as regiões que a registraram, nem toda planta. Ainda há botões florais para abrir, que esperam somente a próxima chuva.

Com a demora na ocorrência dessas chuvas a planta está sobre forte estresse hídrico e térmico, por isso, muitos botões florais poderão morrer. Com isso, a produtividade para a safra 2015 ficará comprometida. Ainda é cedo para mensurar as reais perdas da produção cafeeira, mas é fato que será menor do que a média para um ano de bienalidade baixa, como será a de 2015.

As plantas estão com baixos índices foliares e isso poderá colaborar para um percentual mais baixo de pegamento dos botões florais e até mesmo o abortamento dos chumbinhos.

Quando as chuvas retornarem de forma definitiva nas regiões cafeeiras – no mês de novembro – as plantas serão estimuladas a terem novas floradas e isso poderá minimizar as perdas ocorridas até o momento. Mas como mencionado acima, a produção de café em 2015 deverá sofrer reduções significativas.

Previsão para os próximos 10 dias

Para essa semana não há previsão de chuvas sobre as regiões cafeeiras e as temperaturas ainda ficarão muito acima da média para essa época do ano, o que agrava ainda mais a situação dos cafezais, porque paralisa o seu metabolismo.

As chuvas só voltarão para as regiões cafeeiras em meados da semana que vem, mas os volumes acumulados serão insuficientes para elevar os níveis de umidade do solo a patamares confortáveis ao desenvolvimento das plantas. Chuvas em bons volumes e com boa regularidade só deverão ser registradas no finalzinho do mês de outubro e ao longo de novembro.

---

Coffee report - 10/15/2014  - (google translator)

Summary of Time

A cold front arrived with little intensity to the coast of the Southeast, but can not change the weather significantly in the interior of Brazil. This system eases just a little heat in some regions, such as east of São Paulo and the southern part of Minas Gerais, in addition to the southern part of the forest zone. In these regions, do not rule out some weak and isolated rains, nothing to reverse the current situation of dry weather. A significant and most voluminous rain is still concentrated over southern Brazil.

Agricultural analysis

Dry and hot weather undertakes plantations

The first half of October ends terrible for coffee production in Brazil. The rains of late September led the opening of the buds in various producing municipalities of São Paulo and Minas Gerais, but the time came to stand firm and committed the fixation of flowering.

It is noteworthy that the bloom from late September and early October was very irregular, ie, were not all regions that recorded, not every plant. There is still floral to open, waiting only the buttons next rain.

With the delay in any rainfall the plant is under severe drought and heat stress, so many flower buds may die. Thus, productivity for the 2015 season will be compromised. It is still early to measure the actual losses from coffee production, but it is a fact that will be less than the average for one-year low biannuality, as will 2015.

The plants are low foliar indices and this may contribute to a lower percentage of fixation of the buds and even abortion of pellets.

When the rains return permanently in the coffee regions - in November - the plants will be encouraged to have new blooms and this can minimize the losses incurred so far. But as mentioned above, coffee production in 2015 is likely to suffer significant reductions.

Forecast for the next 10 days

For this week there is no forecast of rain on coffee regions and temperatures will still be well above average for this time of year, which further aggravates the situation of the coffee plantations, because paralyzes your metabolism.

The rains only come back to the coffee regions in the middle of next week, but the accumulated volumes are insufficient to raise levels of soil moisture to comfortable levels for plant growth. Good rains in volumes and with good regularity should be recorded at the very end of October and throughout November.

Arabica-Coffee Ends at Highest Since January 2012; Cocoa Rebounds

  NEW YORK  -  Arabica-coffee futures settled at a more than two-and-a-half-year-high Tuesday as

continued dry weather fueled concerns over top producer Brazil's next crop.

  Arabica for December on ICE Futures U.S. gained 1.7% to end at $2.2190 a pound, the highest

settlement for the most actively-traded contract since Jan. 20, 2012.

  A severe drought earlier this year crimped output this season in Brazil, the world's top arabica

supplier, according to government estimates. But a lack of rainfall in recent weeks has sparked

worries over whether already weakened trees will produce even less coffee next year.

  Most of the month has been dry for Brazil's main coffee-growing region and rains aren't expected

to hit until next week, according to Sao Paulo-based forecaster Somar Meteorologia.

  The global 2014-15 coffee season, which began Oct. 1, "will likely result in a global deficit next

year," due to lower production, the International Coffee Organization said in a report this week.

  "If it doesn't rain until the end of the month it's going to be a problem," said Rodrigo Costa, an

analyst and a director at New York brokerage Newedge.

  Cocoa for December rose 1.4% to end at $3,102 a ton, despite a sign of lower demand from top

chocolate consumer Europe.

  Europe's third-quarter cocoa grindings fell 1.1% on the year to 327,866 metric tons, figures from

the Brussels-based European Cocoa Association showed Tuesday. The figures, which measure the weight

of cocoa beans processed, are regarded as a proxy for chocolate demand.

  But concerns that Ebola will spread throughout West Africa, which supplies more than two-thirds of

the world's cocoa beans, and hurt the harvest and transport of the raw chocolate ingredient,

encouraged buying, brokers said.

  The World Health Organization said Tuesday that as many as 10,000 new cases a week could be

reported by early December.

  "That created some knee-jerk buying," said Jack Scoville, a vice president at Chicago brokerage

Price Futures Group. "If it does get worse, the market could be effected. Maybe you'll have to have

less Easter chocolate."

Orange-juice concentrate for November ended 0.8% at $1.3425 a pound.

  Raw sugar for March gained 0.8% to settle at 16.81 cents a pound, while cotton for December fell

1.3% to 64.16 cents a pound.

Coffee Rust Effects on Latin America Ease -- Market Talk

  12:51 EDT - Coffee rust, a fungal disease known locally as roya, drove down production in Central

America, the Dominican Republic and Peru by 18% in the 2012-13 season, the International Coffee

Organization says, but by only 2% in the season which ended last month. "The damage from coffee leaf

rust is starting to plateau," says the ICO. But even if these growers recover this year, lower

Brazilian production due to a drought could spell trouble down the road. While supply-demand was

relatively balanced in 2013-14, lower production "will likely result in a global deficit next year."

ICE Dec arabica-coffee futures up 0.9% at $2.1990/lb.

World Weather - Coffee - 14/10/2014

By Andy Karst and Drew Lerner
Kansas City, October 14 (World Weather, Inc.) – No change in the hot, dry, weather outlook has occurred for Brazil through the weekend and any showers that evolve early next week will be too brief and light to allow any flowering or change in soil moisture. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will slowly develop and increase in the second half of next week and into the following weekend, but it remains unclear how significant the rain will be. Most likely it will be erratic offering greater rainfall to some areas than others.
The effects of Hurricane Gonzalo stayed mostly offshore from Puerto Rico as it moved to the northeast of the island overnight and serious damage to coffee did not appear likely.
BRAZIL
No measurable rainfall occurred in coffee areas Monday or early today. High temperatures were in the 30s Celsius across most coffee areas with a few readings in the upper 20s near the coast and in central Minas Gerais. No temperature in coffee areas was warmer than 38 and that occurred in northern and far northeastern Sao Paulo. Lows this morning were in the upper teens and lower 20s most often with a low of 26 in northern Sao Paulo and lows of 13 near northern Sul de Minas and interior southeastern Bahia. Hot temperatures will prevail over the coming week while rainfall is minimal. Daily highs will range in the 30s to near 40 degrees Celsius most often with one or two locations getting to 40 before the week is out. Most of the hottest conditions will not be in the heart of key coffee areas, but may impact portions of northern Sao Paulo and both western and northern Minas Gerais to possibly central Bahia. A few upper 20s will continue near the Atlantic Coast.
Low temperatures at night will be mostly in the teens and lower 20s, but a few readings of 11 to 12 may still occur tonight in the traditionally coolest locations.
The heat and dryness will more severely stress coffee trees already suffering from limited soil moisture. Recently flowered crops in the south will likely lose their blossoms without experiencing successful pollination and that will reduce the crop a little more.
Rainfall is possible early next week, but only as isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Daily rain totals will range from 1 to 13 millimeters Monday into Wednesday with a locally greater amount possible. The precipitation will be welcome as relief from the previous ten days to two weeks of hot, dry, conditions. However, it will not be enough to induce a general change in crop conditions.
Rain prospects will be better in the latter part of next week and into the following weekend than they will be early to mid-week next week. World Weather, Inc. anticipates very little meaningful rainfall initially and its distribution may be somewhat similar to that of two weeks ago when a few areas received significant rain while many others did not.

COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA
Rain fell throughout northern Colombia and in a large part of central Colombia Monday. Amounts varied from light to locally heavy. Isolated and light showers occurred in southern Colombia and in western Venezuela. Regular rounds of showers will occur during the next week and most areas will receive multiple rounds of rain.

PERU
Isolated and light showers brought rain to a few locations in small parts of each coffee producing region Monday. Central to southern coffee producing areas will see a continuation of isolated and light showers through the next week. A few showers will develop from time-to-time in northern coffee locations with the precipitation light most often.

PUERTO RICO/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/CUBA
Hurricane Gonzalo passed to the northeast of Puerto Rico overnight and most of the strong wind and heavy rain stayed offshore, sparing the coffee crop from serious damage. Gonzalo was moving to the north and away from the island this morning and is no longer a threat to coffee in the Greater Antilles.
Scattered showers will occur daily through the next week across the Greater Antilles and most areas will see rain on more than one occasion.

MEXICO/CENTRAL AMERICA
Scattered showers developed in Mexico Monday with light to moderate amounts occurring most often. Showers were more numerous in Central America where most areas from Nicaragua to Panama saw light to heavy rain and large parts of Guatemala and Honduras saw light to moderate rain.
Daily shower and thunderstorm activity will occur from southern Mexico through Central America through the next week to ten days as a series of slow-moving low pressure systems traverse the region. The active pattern is abnormal for this time of year and will interrupt farming operations and coffee harvesting.

VIETNAM
The Central Highlands were mostly dry again Monday with some rain reported near the coast. Most of the organized shower activity during the next week will occur near the coast while most coffee areas see an occasional round of light showers with drying occurring most often.

EAST-CENTRAL AFRICA (Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania)
Scattered showers developed from southwestern Kenya into central and northern Uganda Monday with western Ethiopia also seeing scattered shower activity. Most of the resulting rain was light. Light rain also fell on a part of southern Uganda with mostly dry conditions occurring elsewhere.
Showers and thunderstorms will occur regularly from south-central Kenya northeastern Tanzania into western Ethiopia and Uganda’s crop regions through the next week to ten days. The precipitation will be light to moderate and locally heavy. The Pare region of Tanzania will see dry weather most often with some light showers occurring late this week into this weekend.

IVORY COAST/GHANA/NIGERIA/CAMEROON
Scattered showers and thunderstorms occurred across the region Monday. Amounts varied from light to locally heavy. Daily rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the next week and most areas will receive multiple rounds of rain.

INDIA
Light rain was scattered across southern India’s coffee producing region Monday. Rain will fall regularly through the next week which will help supplement irrigation and continue favorable conditions for coffee development.

INDONESIA
Rain increased in central and western Java Monday where amounts varied from 1 to 14 millimeters. A part of central Sumatra received 10 millimeters of rain with 1 to 2 millimeters reported in a couple of northern locations.
Regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms will occur during the next week in most of Sumatra with some eastern locations on southern parts of the island seeing little significant rain. Light showers will occur regularly in parts of Java while northern areas driest. Central Sulawesi will see a few light showers occasionally with little rain expected in Timor.

Arabica Coffee Ticks Higher; Orange Juice Rebounds

  NEW YORK - Arabica-coffee futures ticked higher Tuesday as erratic rainfall in Brazil's growing

areas continued to fuel concerns over the size of the next harvest after dry weather crimped this

year's production.

Arabica for December on ICE Futures U.S. was up 1.3% at $2.2100 a pound.

  Arabica-coffee futures prices have doubled this year as Brazil's worst drought in decades hurt

this season's crop from the world's top grower and has weakened trees, casting doubt over next

year's harvest.

  Most of the month has been dry for Brazil's main coffee-growing region and rains aren't expected

to hit until next week, according to Sao Paulo-based forecaster Somar Meteorologia.

  "If it doesn't rain until the end of the month it's going to be a problem," said Rodrigo Costa, an

analyst and a director at New York brokerage Newedge.

Brazil is the source of around half of the world's arabica beans.

  Orange juice for November was up 1.5% at $1.3525 a pound, after settling near a more than 11-year

low in reaction to a Nielsen report published by the Florida Department of Citrus that showed U.S.

retail sales of the breakfast beverage for the 2013-14 season dropped to the lowest level in at

least 16 years. Americans bought just 525.1 million gallons of the beverage in the year that ended

Sept. 27, according to the Nielsen data. That's the lowest since 1998-99, the oldest data available.

Cocoa for December was up 0.3% at $3,068 a ton.

  Europe's third-quarter cocoa grindings fell 1.1% on the year to 327,866 metric tons, figures from

the Brussels-based European Cocoa Association showed Tuesday. The figures, which measure the weight

of cocoa beans processed, are regarded as a proxy for chocolate demand.

  "Undoubtedly, the [traders are] still worried about all the risk to the price of cocoa should

there still be supply disruptions in West Africa," said Hector Galvan, a senior broker at RJO

Futures in Chicago, referring to the Ebola outbreak.

West Africa is the source of more than two-thirds of the world's cocoa.

  Raw sugar for March was up 0.2% at 16.70 cents a pound, while cotton for December was 0.4% higher

at 65.27 cents a pound.

Brazilian Coffee Trees Deteriorate, Last Flowering Lost

Belfast (CoffeeNetwork) Persistent dry and hot weather in key Brazilian coffee regions has resulted in a notable deterioration of trees in the first half of October, say agronomists, and all indications are that the flowerings that were seen towards the end of September have been lost. Moreover, there is no rainfall in the forecasts for this week and unusually hot temperatures are expected to continue.

Extended weather models suggest that the earliest possible opportunity for rainfall is early next week, but current expectations are that volumes will be erratic, with no widespread coverage to induce what could be called the start of the true wet season, and 2015/16 flowering.

CoffeeNetwork highlights that World Weather, Inc. projects that there will be gradually improving rainfall total from next week, in the last days of October, and that the greatest volumes may not be until early November. Rainfall totals of 8-20 mm could be seen next week, but these will not be uniform in all key growing regions. Somar also points to rains after 22 October, and its graphics suggest around 25mm in key coffee areas by the end of the month, with perhaps close to 35mm in one part of Minas Gerais.

Agronomists note that the average for October is generally taken to be 130-145mm.

On top of the lack of rainfall, as highlighted by CoffeeNetwork for the last number of weeks, is the stress placed on the coffee trees by the extraordinary temperatures. This was partly explained in the last week's Amazon Moisture Flow report by CoffeeNetwork.

It is the extent of the tree stress that will determine how flowering occurs if a true wet season begins in November. There are fears that the trees are so weakened that they may not be able to sustain blossoms, instead using the moisture to merely survive. Whether uniform November rains mean a normal flowering phase will only be evident if these occur next month.

CoffeeNetwork underlines that if November brings no significant change in weather patterns, then talk will swiftly move from a "sub-40 million bags crop" in 2015/16, to a "failed coffee crop".

Andrea Thompson

CRESCIMENTO MUNDIAL DA DEMANDA EM XEQUE

O mercado acionário derreteu na semana passada com quedas entre 2.74% e 4.45% entre os índices americanos e baixa entre 2.88% e 4.95% para os indicadores europeus.

A avaliação cautelosa e negativa do FMI sobre a situação da economia mundial, com estimativas de crescimento baixo para países como a Alemanha, o Japão e o Brasil fizeram com que os investidores continuassem a liquidar parte de suas posições em ativos de risco.

Os principais índices de commodities tiveram comportamento misto, reflexo do peso que cada matéria-prima tem em cada um deles. Os mais carregados em energia cederam com as fortes baixas dos contratos de gasolina, petróleo, e óleo de aquecimento. Outros que dão peso similar às commodities agrícolas e metais ficaram virtualmente de lado, já que café, cacau, suíno magro, metais preciosos e trigo subiram.

O contrato de arábica da ICE fez uma nova alta no ano negociando nos mesmos patamares de janeiro de 2012, quando então recuava há alguns meses dos US$ 301.02 centavos de abril de 2011, ou dos US$ 308.90 de maio do mesmo ano, considerando respectivamente a primeira e a segunda posição.

Os ganhos de US$ 18.39 a saca em Nova Iorque e de US$ 4.74 a saca em Londres refletiram mais uma vez do constante adiamento do começo das precipitações em volume e constante no “cinturão de café” do Brasil.

Há também o efeito agudo do aperto financeiro entre os agentes, dada a apreciação acentuada e praticamente ininterrupta do terminal que gera chamada de margens e que também tem aumentado em função de muitos estarem aproveitando a grande oportunidade de ficar ainda mais comprado em diferencial.

O problema é que o alargamento constante do basis, e o contínuo aumento de posição de quem está fazendo a correta aposta de ficar mais long, em um dado momento acaba esbarrando nos limites dos departamentos de risco e financeiro das empresas. Na verdade este é provavelmente o principal motivo dos diferenciais estarem tão abertos.

O agravamento da, mais uma vez, acertada estratégia – que pode ser custosa sim por algum período – vem do fato da demanda recuada e que não permite o giro do livro, um assunto recorrente inclusive na reunião da Basiléia da última sexta-feira dia 10 de outubro.

As conversas que aconteciam em reuniões fechadas ou em bate-papo no centro de conferência onde aconteceu o 5º Coffee Dinner Suíço, além de girarem em torno do atraso das chuvas – que não há consenso se já causou um desastre enorme ou se eventualmente pode ser reversível com a chegada das chuvas até o final deste mês – também tinha um tom de alerta para uma queda do consumo mundial.

Alguns diziam que consumidores em países europeus que tem sofrido com altas taxas de desemprego e recessão já estão deixando de tomar café, logo causando a queda do consumo mesmo que o preço na gôndola do supermercado não tenha sido ainda reajustado para espelhar a alta do terminal recente. Aliás, este seria o motivo da demanda tão pequena que tem se notado há algum tempo.

Diante deste cenário os baixistas (sim há bastante e inclusive com argumentos interessantes) apontam que muitos analistas só estão olhando para um lado da equação, que é a produção, esquecendo-se da enorme disponibilidade de grãos que saíram das origens para o destino, e mais ainda de uma redução da demanda mundial.

Em um mercado cheio de novidades, com uma seca no Brasil acontecendo em um momento sem paralelo, com discussões complexas sobre morte ou deterioração das raízes dos cafezais, degeneração do estômato das folhas, e outros estudos técnicos de baixa compreensão pela grande maioria (o que não significa que não possa ser real), por que não eventualmente vermos o café se transformar em um produto que a um preço alto e com condições macroeconômicas ruins possa ter uma demanda elástica?!

Não creio, pessoalmente, que seja algo representativo, e acredito que caso ocorra queda de demanda isto seja pontual, até porque não faltará café mesmo que a produção brasileira seja menor do que 40 milhões de sacas que alguns acreditam.

Aos meus leitores vale lembra que eu sempre acho salutar ouvirmos opiniões distintas e sermos cautelosos para não olharmos apenas para um lado do mercado – o que agora significa ser altista como se não houvesse limite para a alta. O mercado pode sim subir mais, muito em função de um aperto financeiro que pode forçar recompra de posições, o que pode acontecer com mais postergações do começo da chuva ou por alguém provocando um squeeze – improvável.

Os produtores diante de dúvidas que muitos tem sobre a quem ouvir, estão certos em aproveitar para vender café e colocar dinheiro no bolso. Os exportadores e os dealers vão tentar ficar ainda mais long diferencial brasileiro a 40 abaixo, o que é uma grande oportunidade, pois, se faltar café (o que puxaria o terminal) ou chover bem (pressionando a bolsa) o basis vai estreitar – o desafio é ter caixa para aguentar as variações do contrato futuro até lá.

Na quarta-feira próxima terei mais uma vez o prazer de participar do Simpósio de Mercado e Certificação de Café em Monte Carmelo-MG, o evento número quatro da associação. Depois tirarei alguns dias com a família, de forma que não haverá comentário nas duas próximas semanas, retornando no final de semana do dia 1º de novembro.

Bons negócios a todos.

Rodrigo Corrêa da Costa escreve este relatório sobre café semanalmente como colaborador da Archer Consulting

Coffee Weather

Hot and dry conditions occurred in Brazil coffee production areas Friday into Sunday. A similar situation was expected to prevail for another seven days with the earliest possible opportunity for rain early next week, but even then the resulting rainfall is expected to be erratic benefiting some areas more than others. In the meantime, Tropical Storm Gonzalo will bring torrential rain and strong wind across Puerto Rico raising some risk of damage to coffee production areas.

No measurable rainfall occurred in coffee areas Friday through Sunday morning. Highest temperatures Friday and Saturday were in the 30s Celsius except in eastern Bahia and in one central Minas Gerais location where a few upper 20s were noted. The hottest temperatures occurred from northern Parana to northern Sao Paulo and from northern Minas Gerais to central Bahia where readings were in the upper 30s. Lowest morning temperatures were in the teens to lower 20s with one location not far from northern Sul de Minas reporting 12.

Hot temperatures will prevail over the coming week while rainfall is minimal. Daily highs will range in the 30s to near 40 most often with one or two locations getting to 41 before the week is out. Most of the hottest conditions will not be in the heart of key coffee areas, but may impact portions of northern Sao Paulo and both western and northern Minas Gerais to possibly central Bahia. A few upper 20s will continue near the Atlantic Coast

Low temperatures at night will be mostly in the teens and lower 20s, but a few readings of 10 to 12 may still occur in the next night or two.

"The heat and dryness will more severely stress coffee trees already suffering from limited soil moisture. Recently flowered crops in the south will likely lose their blossoms without experiencing successful pollination and that will reduce the crop a little more."

Rainfall is possible next week, but only as scattered showers and thunderstorms. The precipitation will be welcome as relief from the previous ten days of hot, dry, conditions. However, it is still quite unclear how significant the precipitation will be. World Weather, Inc. anticipates slowly improving rainfall as the month draws to a close with early November precipitation expected to be most significant.