Com sustentação das arbitragens, café tem dia de bons ganhos na ICE

  Um alento para o mercado de café. Os negócios com o grão desenvolvidos na ICE Futures US tiveram uma terça-feira de boas recuperações, com fortes altas sendo processadas desde a manhã e, com isso, a posição março conseguiu, finalmente, voltar a operar acima dos 110,00 centavos de dólar por libra peso.

Os ganhos do dia estiveram, em sua maior parte, linkados com a questão da arbitragem. Enquanto o café patinava em Nova Iorque e se aproximava das mínimas de 85 meses, em Londres, os robustas conseguiam avançar de forma significativa, diante de uma queda efetiva dos estoques certificados de robustas nessa casa de comercialização, assim como de uma oferta pouco efetiva do Vietnã, já que os produtores locais não se estimulam em liquidar diante de preços deprimidos. Com isso, os terminais na casa de comercialização britânica passaram a rapidamente apresentar oscilações mais efetivas e nesta terça os preços atingiram as máximas de mais de três meses.

O diferencial entre os padrões de preço de Nova Iorque e Londres chegou a menos de 29 centavos de dólar por libra na sessão passada e, diante disso, inevitavelmente era esperada uma movimentação. Diante da retomada das forças do robusta, verifica-se um movimento de recompras também para os arábicas e pode se ter, ao menos, um reposicionamento das cotações, talvez com o março voltando a se manter acima dos 110,00 centavos, nível que, para vários operadores, poderia ser bastante interessante para encerrar o exercício de 2013, já que, mesmo diante da questão da disponibilidade ampla, a precificação já foi efetivada. No campo fundamental, o mercado apresenta poucas novidades, sendo que nenhuma delas mais significativa as cotações.

No encerramento do dia em Nova Iorque, a posição março teve alta de 415 pontos, com 110,25 centavos de dólar por libra peso, com a máxima em 110,80 centavos e a mínima de 105,80 centavos, com o maio registrando ganho de 410 pontos, com 112,50 centavos por libra, com a máxima em 112,95 centavos e a mínima em 108,10 centavos. Na Euronext/Liffe, em Londres, a posição janeiro teve alta de 80 dólares, com 1.849 dólares por tonelada, com o março tendo valorização de 70 dólares, para o nível de 1.793 dólares por tonelada.

De acordo com analistas internacionais, o dia, efetivamente, esteve ligado à questão das arbitragens, que permitiram uam correção para os preços e lançaram o março para um patamar acima dos 110,00 centavos. Assim, ao menos temporariamente, o segundo contrato consegue se fixar um pouco acima das mínimas de mais de 85 meses. No segmento externo, o dia foi de bolsas de valores em queda, ainda que pontuais, ao passo que o dólar recuou em relação a várias moedas, o que também ajudou a formar ganhos para várias commodities.

"O Vietnã oferta pouco no atual momento e há notícias de que os produtores locais buscam preços mais efetivos. Isso reflete no terminal londrino e consegue levar junto Nova Iorque, que anseia por uma correção mais consistente. Essa venda limitada dos asiáticos, porém, não deve durar tanto, já que o país deve colher uma de suas safras mais consistentes da história e esse café vai ter de ser escoado", indicou um trader.

Operadores apontaram que a tendência, em se mantendo esse clima em cima das arbitragens, é fazer com que o março busque o nível de 112,00 centavos, o que abriria espaço para testar a resistência de 112,80 centavos e, posteriormente, os 114,00 centavos. A demanda pelo café da Indonésia, o terceiro maior produtor da variedade robusta, está em queda, já que os preços baixos do maior produtor mundial, o Vietnã, atraem mais compradores. A avaliação é da consultoria Volcafe. Enquanto o produto da Indonésia para embarque em dezembro e janeiro tem prêmio de 190 dólares por tonelada, no mercado futuro da bolsa de Londres, o café do Vietnã tem prêmio de 50 dólares por tonelada. A expectativa do mercado é que Vietnã colha uma safra recorde de 30 milhões de sacas no ano safra 2013/2014, que se iniciou em 01 de outubro. A produção da Indonésia, por sua vez, deverá ser de 11,2 milhões de sacas na temporada.

As exportações brasileiras no mês de dezembro, até o dia 09, totalizaram 433.622 sacas de café, contra 350.179 sacas embarcadas no mesmo período do mês anterior, de acordo com informações do Cecafé (Conselho dos Exportadores de Café do Brasil).

Os estoques certificados de café na bolsa de Nova Iorque tiveram queda de 4.477 sacas, indo para 2.664.870 sacas. Tecnicamente, o março na ICE Futures US tem resistência em 110,80, 111,00, 111,50, 112,00, 112,50, 112,90-113,00, 113,50, 114,00, 114,50, 114,90-115,00, 115,50, 116,00, 116,50, 117,00 e 117,50 centavos de dólar, com o suporte em 105,80, 105,65, 105,50, 105,10-105,00, 104,50, 104,15, 104,00, 103,50, 103,00, 102,50, 102,00, 101,50 e 101,00 centavos.

Londres tem fortes ganhos e atinge máxima de três meses e meio

  Os contratos futuros de café robusta negociados na Euronext/Liffe tiveram uma sessão movimentada nesta terça-feira. Além da continuidade das rolagens de posições, principalmente entre janeiro e março, também foram verificadas várias ações compradoras, que permitiram fazer com que o mercado tivesse ganhos bastante efetivos. A primeira posição registrou seus melhores preços desde 16 de agosto passado.

De acordo com analistas internacionais, novamente a questão dos estoques baixos na bolsa londrina, assim como as vendas pouco efetivas de origens importantes para o robusta, como a Indonésia e o Vietnã, conseguiram fazer com que os players passassem a efetuar recompras efetivas e, rapidamente, os ganhos amadureceram. a tendência atual é totalmente diversa daquela registrada há algumas semanas e ganhos mais expressivos não podem ser descartados. A primeira resistência efetiva está em 1.882 dólares, o que poderia abrir espaço para os 1.900 dólares.

"Os compradores ganharam novo ânimo em Londres e isso está sendo refletido fortemente nos terminais. A tendência é buscarmos alguns índices ainda mais consistentes. E esse comportamento está dando algum alento aos arábicas em Nova Iorque que conseguiram ter uma terça-feira de ganhos consistentes", disse um trader.

O janeiro teve uma movimentação ao longo do dia de 11,2 mil contratos, contra 14,1 mil do março. O spread entre as posições janeiro e março ficou em 56 dólares. No encerramento do dia, o janeiro teve alta de 80 dólares, com 1.849 dólares por tonelada, com o março tendo valorização de 70 dólares, para o nível de 1.793 dólares por tonelada.

Vietnam coffee Prices at 9 week high, harvest peaks

HANOI: Vietnamese coffee prices on Tuesday hit to their highest level in nine weeks, trailing gains in the London futures market, even though harvesting in the world's top robusta producer had been two-thirds completed, traders said on Tuesday.

Robusta rose to 35,000-35,500 dong ($1.66-$1.68) per kg on Tuesday in Daklak, Vietnam's largest coffee growing province, from 33,900 dong on Monday and 33,300-33,500 dong a week ago, tracking global futures prices the previous day.

Liffe March robusta closed up $29, or 1.7 percent, at $1,723 a tonne on Monday, settling above the 100-day moving average, which was at $1,695 on Monday, for the first time since May.

"The price gain gives farmers a hope of more rises so they are selling slowly," said a trader in Buon Ma Thuot, the capital of Daklak. Prices this week neared Oct. 15 levels when beans stood at 36,500 dong per kg in Daklak, based on Reuters data.

Except poor families that have to sell up to 80 percent of their crop to cover expenses, most coffee farmers are still holding back beans, hoping prices could rise to 40,000 dong per kg, a price last seen in mid August, traders said.

"The harvest is going smoothly, with sunshine helping farmers' drying well, but there are more smaller beans than last year," the Buon Ma Thuot-based trader said.

He estimated the ratio of Screen-16 beans -- the medium size -- could be 45 percent of the total harvest this year, from around 60 percent in the previous 2012/2013 season.

Traders first talked about smaller beans at the start of the crop, saying trees had suffered from a serious dryness in March during the dry season, but they had hoped beans would be larger at the harvest peak.

"Now it is real that beans are smaller, but the problem does not affect the bean quality," another trader in Ho Chi Minh City said, adding that with more smaller beans, Vietnam's output may turn out to be below previous expectations.

Traders, however, said they have yet to revise down the 2013/2014 crop output, which many have projected to rise to between 29 million and 30 million 60-kg bags, from 25 million bags in the previous season.

Vietnam's crop year is between October and September. Traders estimated between 60-80 percent of the country's coffee crop has been harvested. While more fresh beans are arriving, most coffee to be shipped from Vietnam this month could come from warehouses owned by foreign firms as exporters do not have high stocks due to farmer's slow sales and limited finance, traders said.

Vietnam's coffee exports this month are expected to rise from November to 100,000-150,000 tonnes, but which would still be below 162,500 tonnes shipped a year ago.

With London futures advancing, the differential of Vietnamese coffee narrowed this week.

Exporters offered robusta grade 2, 5 percent black and broken at a premium of $20 a tonne to London's March contract , down from a premium of $40/tonne a week ago, while deals could be signed at par to a premium of $10 to the March contract.

Soft commodities 'better bet than grains' for 2014

Soft commodities look a better bet for gains than grains in 2014, with cocoa to hit three-year highs, Commerzbank said, forecasting a waning performance by livestock futures.

Among the main grains and oilseed contracts, only Chicago corn will managed headway next year, boosted by the prospect of a drop in US sowings next year, as weak prices prompt farmers to seek alternative crops.

"Assuming normal weather conditions, the relative availability of corn will probably decline compared with wheat in 2014-15, leading to a narrowing of the price difference between corn and wheat," the bank said.

"We also expect corn to recover in absolute terms, even if the high prices of 2011 and 2012 are likely to remain a long way off."

'Structurally driven deficits'

However, soft commodities, which have generally reported losses this year, will see price rises, especially cocoa, which in London will rise to £1,850 a tonne by the end of the year.

That would be the highest prices since September 2011, and is set to be followed by further gains in 2015, reflecting expectations voiced by the International Cocoa Organization of "structurally driven deficits".

Commerzbank also quoted a caution by Olam International, the agricultural commodities trader, that prices will "have to rise again strongly, despite the increases of recent months, in order to sustainably attract investment to the cocoa sectors of the key cocoa-producing countries".

The bank added: "Given market deficits and the need to invest in the cocoa sector to keep pace with rising demand in the mid-term, we believe cocoa prices will continue to rise."

'Scrimping on fertilizer'

Sugar prices will recover a little too, averaging 19.5 cents a pound in the last quarter of next year, given that they have already falling below production costs in many countries, implying a disincentive for output ahead.

And arabica coffee futures will recover to end the year at 110 cents a pound, reviving further in 2015 too, although only after hitting 100 cents a pound as an average for the April-to-June quarter.

"As a minimum, the current low price phase will lead to lower yields in the medium term due to scrimping on fertilizer and crop protection," the bank said.

The "more diminished outlook" for production from 2015-16 "should allow prices to rise slowly, so that after an intermittent low during the Brazilian harvest in 2014 we expect the price of coffee to recover".

'Optimistic regarding supply'

But cotton prices are seen falling to 70 cents a pound for the first time since 2012, pressed by the likelihood that China will revamp its generous state support regime which has been a big prop to values domestically and abroad.

And among grains, for wheat, the prospect of a rise in area, and another strong harvest, will keep pressure on prices, which should average $6.50 a bushel in Chicago and E190 a tonne in Paris in the last quarter of 2014.

"We are optimistic regarding the supply in 2014, which should be reflected in falling prices, particularly in the second half of 2014," Commerzbank said.

For soybeans, the bank saw a fall to $11.50 a bushel, a price last seen in January last year, as relatively high current values encourage production.

"Against the backdrop of expectations of a global surplus in 2013-14 and a positive outlook for the 2014 US harvest, a feeling of scarcity is unlikely to become established on the soybean market in the foreseeable future."

The bank forecast livestock finishing next year a little below current levels, at 83 cents a pound for lean hogs and 132 cents a pound for live cattle.

Liffe Said to Consider Publishing Coffee, Cocoa Load-In Fees

Isis Almeida – Bloomberg  -  2013-12-10

Dec. 10  -  NYSE Liffe is considering publishing fees charged by warehouses to take in cocoa and coffee that can be delivered against the bourse’s futures contracts, according to two people familiar with the matter.

The exchange already publishes maximum storage costs and fees for withdrawing inventories.NYSE Liffe officials met with warehouse operators on Nov. 29 in London, the people said, asking not to be identified because the matter is private. The bourse also may redefine what can be included in fees for taking goods out of depots, the people said.

NYSE Liffe said in a notice Oct. 30 that it was consulting with warehouse owners, bourse members and traders about how depots determine charges for holding coffee and cocoa. That includes arrangements such as a single fee covering more than one service, for instance taking supply into depots and also storing it, the exchange said in the notice.

Adaora Anunoby, a spokeswoman for NYSE Liffe in London, declined to comment. The bourse has asked warehouse operators to collaborate in the review of charging structures, said Enrico Antonj, chairman of the European Warehousekeepers Federation.

Indonesia sidesteps coffee price tumble

Coffee growers in one major producing country are avoiding, somewhat, the market slump which has provoked losses and unrest among farmers in the likes of Brazil and Colombia.

Coffee prices in Indonesia, which may this year lose third-rank among global coffee growing countries to a revived Colombia, are holding well above those of the international market, where futures in both arabica and robusta beans have set multi-year lows this month.

"Current domestic robust and arabica prices stand at $2 per kilogramme and $5 per kilogramme respectively," the US Department of Agriculture bureau in Jakarta said.

That is equivalent to $2,000 per tonne for robusta beans, which for January delivery were trading at $1,615 a tonne in London on Thursday.

For arabica, the price is equivalent to more than 220 cents a pound – twice the price of New York futures.

Taste for coffee

The price resilience reflects in part a disappointing harvest, seen falling 1.0m bags to 9.5m bags this year, hurt by dry weather during flowering and excessive rains during fruit formation, although the decline would have been worse were it not for a good result from the country's "fly" harvest picked early in the calendar year.

Indeed, the decline in overall production was 300,000 bags fewer than the USDA bureau had originally anticipated.

However, Indonesians are also increasingly drinking more of what they produce, with Starbucks boasting nearly 150 coffee bars in the country, and the Excelso chain more than 100 outlets.

"The annual domestic consumption continues to increase, largely due to Indonesia's growing middle class," the bureau said.

Exports drop

Indonesians are expected by the bureau to consume a record 2.5m bags of coffee in 2013-14, 30,000 bags more than the official USDA forecast, and nearly twice as much as demand at the turn of the century.

Indeed, with output falling year on year, Indonesia is one country expected to see lower exports in 2013-14, down 12% year on year to 7.8m bags.

And even that assumes inventories ending the season at just 48,000 bags, which would be the lowest in at least 50 years.

Coffee price rally 'may not last long'

Investors were warned against expecting a continued recovery in coffee prices, even as robusta beans strengthened their foothold back over $1,600 a tonne, while arabica futures sought their first three-day winning streak since early October.

Commerzbank said that the "restraint" exercised by robusta coffee sellers in Vietnam, the top producer of the variety, may continue to support London-traded futures in the short term.

Vietnam's exports fell 34% to 61,100 tonnes in October, the first month of the 2013-14 crop year, below an initial forecast of 65,000 tonnes, the country's official statistics office said on Wednesday, driving futures up 2.4%.

"Estimates for November [exports] are likewise well below their year-on-year equivalents," the bank said.

The declines defy an ongoing harvest which looks like ending up at a record 1.7m bags, and would be expected to weigh on prices.

'We anticipate a correction'

"It is likely that the short-term-oriented financial investors active on the market will further cut their net short positions," giving extra support to futures for now, Commerzbank said.

Speculators in robusta coffee cut their net short position – the extent to which short bets, which profit when values fall, exceed long holdings, which benefit when prices rise – by 2,302 lots to 8.490 lots in the week to November 19.

However, the extent of Vietnam's harvest will weaken the discipline among robusta sellers, boosting exports and undermining prices.

"We remain sceptical about whether Vietnam will continue to be able to withhold exports for any prolonged period," the bank said.

"We anticipate a correction in the foreseeable future, assuming the prospect of a record crop does not change."

SocGen outlook

Separately, Societe Generale downgraded its forecast for arabica coffee futures to levels below the futures curve, albeit not foreseeing any lasting drop below 100 cents a pound for the first time since 2006, as some other commentators such as Macquarie have done.

With Colombia's output recovering strongly, as trees mature which were put in during a campaign to replant with varieties resistant to coffee rust, and Brazil set in 2014 for an "on" year in its cycle of higher and lower producing years, these extra supplies "will only add to the global surplus", SocGen analyst Christopher Narayanan said.

The bank raised by 1.2m bags to 5.6m bags its forecast for the world production surplus in 2013-14, raising its estimate too for the surplus last season, by more than 900,000 bags to 10.9m bags.

"We maintain that tightening will not be seen until at least the 2015-16 marketing year, barring any significant drop in Central American coffee production due to leaf rust disease," Mr Narayanan said.

ICE Coffee Languishes, Corrective Pattern -- Technical Analysis

Kira Brecht

  ICE March coffee futures are trading quietly Wednesday as the market

consolidates in a minor corrective pattern following the new contract low hit

early in the month. The short-term outlook is choppy and sideways, but the

longer-term trend remains firmly bearish.

  ICE March coffee recently traded down 25 points at $1.0850 a pound.

  Since hitting a new contract low at $1.0415 on Nov. 6, the ICE March coffee

contract has rebounded higher with a minor series of higher highs and higher

lows. The corrective strength hit a peak at $1.1200 on Nov. 22 and that remains

important nearby resistance for the market. The coffee market has stalled just

below 40-day moving average resistance in recent days, which comes in at

$1.1202 on Wednesday.

  For months now, the 40-day moving average has acted as strong resistance on

minor counter-trend rally moves in the coffee market. While minor breaches have

been seen of the 40-day moving average, they have been short lived. Traders can

continue to look at that zone as strong nearby resistance.

  Daily momentum has flat-lined, with the nine-day relative strength index at

48% on Wednesday. Momentum is neutral and not showing a strong trend.

  Near-term support lies at $1.0615, the Nov. 25 low. If the market took that

floor out the bears would look to push back toward the contract low.

  Overall, conditions are uninspired and volatility has fallen in recent days.

The market is in the midst of quiet pre-holiday trade and liquidity conditions

are likely thin.

  The market is in a corrective phase following the steep and steady sell-off

from mid October. The consolidation could have some more time on the clock.

  Shifting out to the monthly continuation chart for ICE coffee, major

long-term support lies at the December 2008 swing low at $1.0170. That remains

a longer-term objective for the bears. But the market is languishing and not

exhibiting strong momentum, so it may be days or weeks before the bears regain

momentum for a test of lower levels.

Brazil Is Studying More Coffee-Support Measures, Official Says

  SAO PAULO  -  The Brazilian government is studying more measures to help coffee

growers, who are dealing with about $2.36 billion in debt, an official from the

agriculture ministry said Wednesday.

  As prices for arabica coffee, the mostly widely grown variety, trade near

seven-year lows, Brazil's government has taken steps to support the coffee

industry, which produces about 2% of the nation's total exports by value.

  The government's latest effort was last week, when it suspended loan payments

for coffee producers. But farmers say the move doesn't do enough.

  Grower groups would like to see the government establish a strategic coffee

stockpile, let growers pay debts with coffee and provide more financing options

for mechanization.

  "We're looking at all the proposals; nothing has been ruled out yet," Janio

Zeferino, director of the Agriculture Ministry's coffee department, told The

Wall Street Journal.

  More measures will be implemented if the most recent moves don't boost

prices, Mr. Zeferino said. He couldn't say how long the government would wait

before deciding if more is needed, adding any new steps would be announced

"when appropriate."

  Arabica coffee traded on the ICE Futures U.S. exchange is down about 25% this

year, trading at $1.0810 a pound Wednesday. Futures rose as high as $1.12 a

pound last week in anticipation of what the government would propose, but

prices quickly pulled back after the debt-payment suspension was announced.

  Producers said the debt measure deals only with the effects of low prices,

not the price itself. Coffee growers have been taking on debt while they wait

to sell their beans at higher prices.

  Mr. Zeferino estimated that coffee farmers owe 6 billion reais.

Robusta Coffee Falls After Biggest Rally in 7 Weeks; Cocoa Rises

Isis Almeida - 2013-11-25

Robusta coffee fell for a second day in London after rallying the most in seven weeks last week on falling stockpiles and slow exports from Vietnam, the world’s largest producer. Cocoa advanced.

The beans used to make instant coffee and espresso gained 4.3 percent through Nov. 22, the most since the seven-day period ended Oct. 4. Inventories in warehouses monitored by NYSE Liffe slid 8 percent in the two weeks to Nov. 11, while shipments from Vietnam are forecast at 94,000 metric tons this month, data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development showed, 23 percent lower than a year earlier. Prices slid 1.4 percent in the last trading session.

“We don’t think that the story is over with robusta, but last session certainly cleared the decks,” Toby Donovan, a broker at BGC Partners LLC in London, said by e-mail. “Prices rallied last week on speculative short covering, low certified stockpiles, with expectations of further inventory draw-downs, given weight by the lack of coffee coming out of Vietnam.”

Robusta coffee for January delivery slid 0.6 percent to $1,567 a ton by 10:34 a.m. on NYSE Liffe in London. Arabica coffee for March delivery fell 0.6 percent to $1.069 a pound on ICE Futures U.S. in New York. Arabica futures trading volumes were 24 percent lower than the average for the past 100 days for this time of day, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Robusta inventories in NYSE Liffe-monitored warehouses stood at 48,770 tons as of Nov. 11, data from the bourse showed. That’s lower than the 52,000 tons predicted by traders in August in a Bloomberg survey for the end of the year. Vietnamese shipments were 122,000 tons in November last year, according to data from the ministry. The season there started on Oct. 1.

Cocoa Gains

“Producing countries are expected to keep selling above $1,600 a ton and the bulls will certainly have some work to do in order to clear them,” Donovan said.

Refined, or white, sugar for delivery in March was unchanged at $464.10 a ton on NYSE Liffe. Raw sugar for delivery in March gained 0.1 percent to 17.42 cents a pound on ICE.

Cocoa for delivery in March advanced 0.2 percent to 1,769 pounds ($2,865) a ton in London. In New York, cocoa for March delivery rose 0.1 percent to $2,803 a ton.