Evening Weather Update For February 4, 2015

COMMENTS AND SUMMARY

SOUTH AMERICA

The GFS evening model run was a little wetter from Cordoba into Santa Fe early next week and was drier in western Argentina Feb. 14-16 and in most of Brazil Feb. 17-19. A small increase in precipitation was suggested for central Argentina Feb. 17-19, as well.

South America (Week 1-Discussion of significant model changes)

· GFS model increased rainfall Monday into Wednesday from Cordoba to southern Santa Fe where amounts of 0.20 to 0.75 inch were suggested previously and amounts this evening were suggested to range from 0.50 to 1.50 inches

The precipitation increase was possibly a little overdone

South America (Week 2-Discussion of significant model changes)

· GFS model reduced rain in most of western Argentina Feb. 14-16 with rainfall of 0.75 to 3.00 inches and local totals over 4.00 inches previously now varying from 0.05 to 0.50 inch

The reduction in rain was badly needed and the forecast is more likely to verify now relative to that of earlier today

· GFS model increased rainfall Feb 17-19 in central Argentina with amounts of 0.25 to 0.80 inch with local totals to 1.75 inches previously

The increase in precipitation may have been slightly overdone

· GFS model reduced rainfall Feb 17-19 in most of Brazil with rainfall of 0.50 to 1.25 inches in the south and 0.05 to 0.60 inch in the northeast which is down from 0.75 to more than 3.00 inches in the south and 0.50 to 1.50 inches in the northeast previously

The reduction in precipitation was necessary and evening solution has a much better chance of verifying

The evening model run corrections from mid-day today were needed changes and restores confidence in our official forecast from earlier today. No change to the official forecast is necessary based on this model run.

WORLD WEATHER, INC.’S EXPECTATIONS AND IMPACT ON CROPS

The bottom line tonight still offers timely rainfall for both Brazil and Argentina crop areas during the next two weeks. The outlook remains favorable and supportive of most crop needs. Portions of Argentina will briefly dry out during the coming week, as will southern Brazil, but timely rainfall next week will see to it that the dryness does not create a stressful environment for crops long enough to harm production potentials. Relief is also expected in northeastern Brazil where drought-like conditions have prevailed for a few weeks. The rain in Bahia, northern and eastern Minas Gerais and Espirito Santo will be greatest tonight into Sunday before diminishing once again next week.