Early Ag Weather Watch - Feb 3

EARLY LOOK WEATHER REPORT

 

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:
HIGH MON...86 AT POMPANO BEACH FL
LOW  MON...31 BELOW ZERO AT EMBARRASS MN AND COTTON MN
24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM: NEWARK NJ 1.17 INCH

 

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

 

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the first
few days of the 6-10 day period, only fair agreement at the end of the period.
I am using mostly today's European model as it concerns the end of the period.
The models both suggest that the coldest weather in Canada will retreat
northward during the first few days of the period. A weak to moderate trough
develops over the eastern US during this period which may maintain somewhat
colder weather but not the extreme cold that would be associated with Arctic
type air masses. The precipitation chances are highest east of this trough and
mainly for the east coast states but possibly as far west as the Michigan/Ohio
area of the Midwest.
The European model maintains a weak trough over the Midwest with a somewhat
stronger trough over the southeast US at the end of this period. This suggest
somewhat cooler temperatures but not very cold weather. It is also a little
unsettled but probably not to the point of above normal precipitation, except
possibly through the southeast to the middle Atlantic region.
The US model shows the polar trough dropping south again over eastern Canada
towards the end of the period with a new Arctic high moving out of northwest
Canada towards the Great Lakes region. This suggests a colder trend for at
least the north and east Midwest and possibly more widespread than that. This
model does not show much of a southeast US trough as the European model
suggests. This solution is only supported on 2 out of the members of the
ensemble run of the US model and is therefore giving less weight than the
operational run of the European model. The European model mean of it's ensemble
run supports the weaker trough over the Midwest and east US. It does not show
the stronger southeast US trough but this is likely due to the averaging of the
model rather than any strong preference.

 

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

 

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): A tendency for below normal rainfall and above
temperatures in RGDS will bear watching but as of now conditions still favor
developing crops. No significant concerns elsewhere in the key growing areas
but the current hot spell in Mato Grosso also bears watching.

 

SAO PAULO/MINAS GERAIS, BRAZIL: A recent increase in shower and thundershower
activity will help improve conditions for key coffee,  citrus and sugarcane
areas of Sao Paulo and southern Minas Gerais. Showers have also helped ease
stress to coffee trees in central Minas Gerais, however this area is still
seeing below normal rainfall with a tendency for above normal temperatures. The
forecast charts suggest a more widespread rain event is possible for most of
Minas Gerais later this week or during early next week. .

 

ARGENTINA (CORN,SOYBEANS): Mostly favorable conditions for crops at this time.
Brief periods of hot temperatures and periodic shower activity will favor
developing corn and soybeans. However, during the next 7 days it does not
appear very wet, except possibly in La Pampa, southwest Buenos Aires and
Cordoba where thundershowers may be more active.

 

EAST MIDWEST/DELTA (WHEAT): A deep snow cover will protect the north and
central wheat areas from any cold weather during this week. A warming trend
appears likely for the 6 to 10 day period. Snow cover and recent precipitation
will maintain favorable soil moisture for the region as it melts during the
coming months. We may need to keep an eye on spring moisture to determine the
risk of spring flooding.

 

WEST MIDWEST (TRANSPORTATION): The weekend snow storm has likely impacted
transport through southern and eastern areas. However, the weather pattern
during this week looks more favorable.

 

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS (WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): The weekend precipitation is favorable
for winter wheat. No significant cold weather is indicated. No major concerns
in the key feed lots of southwest Kansas and the Texas Panhandle despite
weekend moisture.

 

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): Reproductive to filling maize and sugarcane has
likely benefited from a recent increase in rainfall and from cooler
temperatures. The week ahead looks somewhat warmer and drier but this does not
appear to be overly concerning at this time.

 

UKRAINE/WEST AND SOUTH RUSSIA: Above normal temperatures and rain has melted
protective snow cover through central and east Ukraine during the past 5 days.
The moisture and moderate temperatures favor overwintering wheat but the lack
of snow cover leaves the crop vulnerable in the event of a turn to colder
weather. Also, some risk for freeze-thaw cycles leading to increasing
winterkill even if it doesn't turn very cold. Soils moisture is adequate to
surplus at this time.

 

INDIA (WINTER WHEAT): Light to moderate showers have occurred through key wheat
areas of Pakistan and northwest to north-central India during January. Winter
wheat will benefit from these showers as crop development advances. Showers
also fell through some of the winter rapeseed region during the month.

 

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

 

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

 

Summary...

 

WEST: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged below normal.

 

EAST: Mostly dry. Temperatures averaged below normal.

 

Forecast...

 

WEST: Dry or with only a little light snow in northeast areas today or tonight
and in southern areas Wednesday or Wednesday night. Dry Thursday. Temperatures
average below normal, possibly well below normal for a time.
Mostly dry Friday. Chance for light snow, favoring north and east areas,
during Saturday. Drier again Sunday. Temperatures average above to well above
normal west, near to above normal east.

 

EAST: Dry or with only a little light snow north during today or tonight and
through southern and eastern areas during Wednesday or Wednesday night. Dry
Thursday. Temperatures average below normal during this period, possibly well
below normal at times.
Mostly dry Friday. Chance for snow or snow squalls, favoring north and east
areas, during Saturday and Saturday night. Drier again during Sunday.

 

Temperatures average below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday and
Sunday.

 

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal
west, near to below normal east. Precipitation near to below normal.

 

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Sorghum)

 

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures averaged below normal yesterday morning. The
afternoon highs averaged above normal in the west, below normal east.

 

Forecast: Mostly dry today. Chance for light snow or snow showers, favoring
north and east-central areas, during tonight or during Wednesday. Mostly dry
Thursday. Temperatures average above normal today, colder Wednesday and early
Thursday, warmer again later Thursday...much warmer through western areas later
Thursday.
Mostly dry Friday through Sunday. Temperatures average well above normal.
Highs each day range from the 60s to the low or middle 70s.

 

6-10 Day Outlook...Temperatures are expected to average above normal during
this period. Precipitation will likely average near to below normal.

 

Brazil (Wheat, Corn, Soybeans)

 

Summary:
Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: Dry or with only isolated showers in southwest
Parana during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above normal through
western areas, near to below normal east. Highs yesterday 86 to 97F (30-36C)...
hottest in western RGDS.

 

Mato Grosso: Dry or with only isolated light showers during the past 24 hours.
Temperatures averaged above normal with highs 91 to 97F (33-36C) yesterday.

 

Forecast:
Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: Episodes of scattered to widely scattered
showers and thundershowers in Parana today through Thursday. Mainly dry through
RGDS during this time. Temperatures average near to above normal, mostly above
normal through RGDS.
Mostly dry all areas Friday through Sunday. Temperatures average near to
above normal Friday, above normal during the weekend.

 

Mato Grosso: Mostly dry or with only a few light showers today. Chance for a
few showers and thundershowers developing in MGDS during Wednesday or Thursday.
Dry or with only isolated light showers in Mato Grosso Wednesday and Thursday.
Temperatures average near to above normal, mostly above normal through Mato
Grosso.
Scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers develop through
Mato Grosso Friday through Sunday. Drier through MGDS during this time.
Temperatures average near to above normal.

 

Central Argentina (Wheat, Corn, Soybeans)

 

Summary: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, 0.30-1.50 inches (8-38 mm) and
locally heavier, occurred through west and north Cordoba and north Santa Fe
during the past 24 hours. Little elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged
near to above normal south, near to below normal north. Highs yesterday 86-94F
(30-35C).

 

Forecast: Scattered showers and thundershowers through Cordoba, west and north
Santa Fe today and tonight. A few light showers elsewhere in the region during
this time. Dry or with only a few light to locally moderate showers in La Pampa
and southwest Buenos Aires Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures average near to
above normal during this period.
Dry or with only a few light showers, favoring the southwest, Friday.
Scattered showers and thundershowers for La Pampa and southern Buenos Aires
during Saturday. Drier again Sunday. The balance of the region continues mostly
dry or with only a few light showers Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures average
near to above normal, mostly above normal through central and southern areas.

 

Joel Burgio