World Coffee Weather

Greater Rain In Sao Paulo, Brazil Today

By Andy Karst

           Kansas City, September 25 (World Weather, Inc.) – Rain increased from northern Parana into north-central Sao Paulo, Brazil Wednesday and will extend a little further north in Sao Paulo today and Friday than advertised earlier this week. The precipitation will then drift to the south limiting the amount of moisture that falls in Sul de Minas and Rio de Janeiro. A near-daily scattering of showers and thunderstorms will occur in these more important coffee areas (northeastern Sao Paulo to Sul de Minas and Rio de Janeiro) during the weekend and through most of next week. Some flowering may eventually occur, but it is expected to be erratic for a while until a more generalized soaking rain takes place. Parana and some Sao Paulo coffee areas far removed from Sul de Minas are most likely to flower while northern Brazil crop areas (north of Sul de Minas) will stay too dry for flowering.  Much of Indonesia was dry again Wednesday and southern parts the archipelago will see little rain through this weekend with some increase in shower activity occurring next week. 

BRAZIL

           

Rain developed from northern Parana to northwestern and north-central Sao Paulo Wednesday with light rain reported in northeastern Sao Paulo as well.  Amounts reached 45 millimeters in far northwestern most Sao Paulo (outside of coffee areas) while 18 to 23  millimeters occurred in northern Parana and north-central Sao Paulo.  Northeastern Sao Paulo saw amounts of 1 to 5 millimeters.  Dry weather occurred in most of the key coffee production areas from Sul de Minas through Bahia and Espirito Santo.  Highest temperatures Wednesday afternoon were in the upper 20s to lower 30s Celsius with an extreme of 36 in central Bahia and a reading as cool as 24 in northern Parana.  Lows this morning were 14 to 18 most often with readings of 19 to 23 in some northern and eastern locations.

            Rain will be concentrated on Sao Paulo and Parana today before retreating more to the south for the weekend and early part of next week. Today and Friday’s rain will be widespread in the two states with amounts in coffee areas to range from 15 to 40 millimeters. A few areas in northern Parana may receive much greater amounts. A few showers will reach into southern Sul de Minas, but with rain totals of 8 to 20 millimeters most likely. As the core of greatest rain shifts southward during the weekend and early next week, the precipitation in key coffee areas will decrease to scattered showers of light intensity. Daily rainfall Saturday through Thursday, October 2 will vary from 5 to 15 millimeters from northeastern Sao Paulo into Sul de Minas and Rio de Janeiro. Rain in northern Parana and southwestern Sao Paulo will be greater varying from 8 to 25 millimeters each day. Showers may expand northward into northern Sul de Minas, Zona de Mata, northern Rio de Janeiro and Espirito Santo during the middle to latter part of next week. The near daily rainfall will vary from 5 to 15 millimeters most often.

            High pressure aloft that has been restricting rain intensity and its northward advance into Brazil will break down late next week and into the following weekend offering the more northward advance in rainfall. This change has been advertised in the past, but it failed to verify and caution is advised. However, seasonal weather changes will eventually support this change allowing greater rain into Brazil coffee areas during the middle and latter parts of October.

            Temperatures will be mild in association with this week’s rainfall. Parana to southern Sul de Minas and Rio de Janeiro will experience high temperatures in the 20s to near 30 during the wettest period over the next two days. Temperatures will warm back to the middle and upper 20s during the weekend and next week. Areas further to the north will continue to see daily highs in the upper 20s and lower to middle 30s with a few extremes in the upper 30s in central Bahia and northern Minas Gerais. Low temperatures at night will be in the teens and lower 20s.