Brazil Coffee Weather
Sul de Minas To Parana Expecting Scattered Showers
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Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur this weekend and much of next week from northern Parana to Sul de Minas and Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Some showers will evolve a little further north later next week. Most of the daily rain will be light and erratic, but accumulative rain totals over the coming week may be sufficient to induce some sporadic flowering in Sul de Minas and a few more areas of more generalized flowering in parts of Sao Paulo and Parana.

Londrina, Parana reported 35 millimeters of rain during the 18-hour period ending at 0600 GMT today and satellite imagery suggested greater rainfall to the immediate northeast possibly impacting a few coffee areas. However rainfall in Sul de Minas and Sao Paulo was restricted and probably not enough to change crop or soil conditions. Most of the key production areas were dry and warm. High temperatures were in the middle and upper 20s Celsius from northern Parana to northern Sao Paulo while in the upper 20s and lower 30s in most other areas. A few extreme highs of 34-36 occurred from northern Minas Gerais to central Bahia.

A near daily occurrence of showers and thunderstorms will occur this weekend through Wednesday of next week from Parana to Sul de Minas and Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The resulting daily rainfall is expected to be light varying from 4 to 20 millimeters most often. Each day’s rain would probably not be enough to stimulate much flowering, but the accumulative effect of near daily amounts like that along with higher relative humidity and seasonable temperatures may be sufficient to induce some areas of flowering. However, in this scenario, a generalized flowering session would be unlikely in Sul de Minas, but it may evolve in minor crop areas of Parana and portions of Sao Paulo. Rain totals by this time next week will vary from 20 to 50 millimeters across Sao Paulo and possibly 50 to 85 millimeters in northern Parana. Sul de Minas and Rio de Janeiro may see seven-day rain totals of 15 to 40 millimeters with the greater totals near the coast and “possibly” in a few common border areas of southern Sul de Minas and northeastern Sao Paulo. The lightest rain will be in northern and western Sul de Minas and northern Rio de Janeiro.

Some of the computer forecast models have predicted greater rainfall for some of the crop region, but conditions are not ideal for such an occurrence and the model is painting the greater rainfall amounts with too broad of a brush. In other words, the advertised heavier rainfall is being suggested in too much of a generalized manner.
Some of the showers and thunderstorms may shift to the north into Zona de Mata, Espirito Santo, northern Minas Gerais and Bahia late next week and more likely in the following weekend. Resulting rainfall will be very light and not likely sufficient enough to induce any flowering. Rain totals would run from 1 to 15 millimeters with a few locally greater amounts.

High pressure aloft that has been restricting rain intensity and its northward advance into Brazil will break down late next week and into the following weekend offering the more northward advance in rainfall. This change has been advertised in the past, but it failed to verify and caution is advised. However, seasonal weather changes will eventually support this change allowing greater rain into Brazil coffee areas during the middle and latter parts of October.
Temperatures will be seasonable in association with the coming week of rainfall. Parana to southern Sul de Minas and Rio de Janeiro will experience high temperatures in the middle 20s to near 30 while temperatures further north continue in the upper 20s and lower to middle 30s. There is potential for a few upper 30s in the far north of Brazil coffee country. Nightly low temperatures will be in the teens and lower 20s.