Brazil's coffee farmers balk at investing in crops even as prices rally

Reuters - Reese Ewing  -  SAO PAULO  Thu Aug 28, 2014 3:24pm EDT

Three years ago, a record surge in arabica prices spurred a wave of investment across coffee plantations in top grower Brazil, as farmers scrambled to fill a supply gap left by Central America after heavy rains damaged crops.

The following year, in 2012, Brazil's output rose by 19 percent, hitting a record 38 million bags.

But a surge in prices this year is not having a similar effect. While benchmark bean prices have rallied more than 90 percent from the seven-year lows hit last November, they remain at least 20 percent below where farmers say would consider plowing more money into fertilizer or expanding acreage.

A Reuters survey of nine cooperatives and producers in Minas Gerais, Sao Paulo and Parana states found that farmers in Brazil's southeast, the region worst hit by a drought that ranks as the worst in five decades and which has caused the run-up in prices, have no plans to invest more than usual this year to boost output.

The drought, which peaked in the crucial January through March period and robbed farmers of as much as 30 percent of their crop, has weakened appetite to invest, especially with the debts that farmers already are carrying after painfully low prices in 2013.

"You're not going to see a lot of enthusiasm to invest after the drought. There are 30 types of businesses with better returns than coffee right now," producer Luis Hafers said. "For now, my investments are on hold."

Without investment in crop nutrients over the next few months, it could take years for the country's coffee trees to recover, potentially hurting global supplies of arabica.

The official estimate from the Agriculture Ministry in May put Brazil's arabica harvest, which was ravaged by the drought, at 32 million bags, down 16 percent from last year. Many fear output in 2015 may be even lower.

ROILED BY ROYA, BULKING AT FERTILIZER

A devastating leaf rust in Central American and war and logistical challenges in Africa will make it harder for other producers of quality arabicas to fill the vacuum that will be left by Brazil in the coming years.

"We're getting 400 reais a bag ($1.33/lb) for good cup arabica, but we need to see 500 reais to consider planting more or additional fertilizer," said Walter Dutra, co-owner of a 300-hectare farm in Minas Gerais, Brazil's main coffee state.

Most of the representatives of Brazil's coffee industry who spoke with Reuters said they need to see prices to rise by a quarter before they would consider new investment.

Futures prices for arabicas have rallied almost 30 percent since mid-July, hitting $2.00 per lb this week, but they are still 8 percent from April highs of $2.15/lb and down more than a third from 2011 highs above $3.

"Producers are making money finally, but not enough," Anderson Oliveira de Souza, manager at the Cocatrel cooperative said. In 2011/12, Cocatrel sold 40,000 tonnes of fertilizer to coffee producers on the farms in the Tres Pontas area of Minas Gerais, but in the last two years it sold only 26,000 tonnes.

"We'll be lucky to sell that this year because producers' debts are restricting their access to credit," Souza said.

Application of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium will start in September and continue through April, but the effects will not be seen until the 2016 harvest.

Over the first half of 2014, fertilizer sales to the coffee sector have been up 1.2 percent, according to Brazil's largest coffee cooperative, Cooxupe, in southern Minas Gerais, the state that produces half the country's coffee.

"After selling coffee at below cost in 2013, we lacked capital, so we cut back on fertilizer," said Marco Antonio Jacob, producer in Sao Paulo state.

"Now, the drought took 30 to 40 percent of our crop, so again, where are we supposed to get this money to invest?"