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sexta-feira, 25 de julho de 2014

ICE Coffee Bulls Regain Control Of Trend -- Technical Analysis
Kira Brecht

  ICE September coffee futures are posting a second day of gains on Thursday, following Wednesday's
strong thrust higher. The market has shrugged off the July 10-17 dip below a major multi-month
support floor, which marks that sell-off as a "bear trap." The bulls have regained control of the
near term trend and the coffee market has bounced back above the old multi-month support floor.
ICE September coffee recently traded up 175 points at $1.7835 a pound.
  Looking back at market action since early March, ICE September coffee had traded in a large
multi-month sideways range bordered by strong support on the downside in the $1.6965-$1.6655 region.
On July 10, ICE coffee spiked lower breaking that support floor. The market traded as low as $1.5925
on July 15, but failed to attract follow-through selling.
  The bulls regained control with a sharp rally move on July 18 and propelled the coffee contract
back above the $1.6965-$1.6655 zone. The lack of follow-through selling and subsequent recovery
higher labels the brief dip under $1.6655 a "bear trap" and suggests that coffee is now back within
the larger multi-month neutral range.
  In the near term, the bulls have the edge. ICE September coffee is trading above its 20-day moving
average, which is a positive chart signal. A near-term target and resistance for the bulls lies at
the June 27 peak at $1.8490. That zone could represent a stiff ceiling for the bulls and minor
consolidation or even light profit-taking could emerge as coffee approaches that high.
  However, a strong and sustained rally move through $1.8490 would be a bullish signal if that were
to unfold, with the next major bullish target at $1.9975, the May 15 peak.
  Conversely, if $1.8490 holds firm, look for near-term consolidative trade to emerge between that
ceiling as resistance and the $1.6655 zone as support.

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