Early Ag Weather Watch - Feb 10

EARLY LOOK WEATHER REPORT

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...84 AT DRYDEN TX

LOW  SUN...27 BELOW ZERO AT CRANE LAKE MN

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 06:00 PM CT...SACRAMENTO 1.36 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the next 10

days, although there are differences as it concerns timing of features and

movement. The more significant differences are noted through the east coast

states and in the western Atlantic.

The longer range maps, days 6-10, continue to show the high latitude

blocking ridge well north and west of Alaska. There is a major upper level

trough covering the Gulf of Alaska, approaching the west coast of Canada during

this period. There is a moderate to strong trough centered north of Hudson Bay

in Canada during this time. The flow pattern across the US is a fast west to

east flow with embedded short wave troughs moving through this flow. There area

indications of a continued stormy weather pattern for the west coast states

from northern California northward, possibly a little south of here as well.

The fast flow through the middle of the US means mostly below normal

precipitation.. The precipitation may be somewhat heavier towards the east

coast. The heights in the southern US appear to be heading towards above

average. This means that after some fairly cold weather in the short range

period the region will turn warmer and drier later in the period. Temperatures

through the central and northern US may be more variable in nature but could

still trend towards below normal.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

SOUTH AMERICA: The strong ridge of high pressure remains in place over southern

Brazil and in the Atlantic east of Brazil today. There are signs on the models

that the ridge will weaken with time and eventually move off to the east. This

may allow for increasing shower activity and more seasonal temperatures in the

Brazil crop areas. The first to benefit from this change would be soybean areas

from RGDS and MGDS to Parana but not before 2-3 more very hot and mostly dry

days. The last to benefit from this would be the major sugarcane, coffee and

citrus areas of Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais Brazil. Argentina may also benefit

when troughs begin to move further north and east as it could trend drier.

However, not before 2-3 more days with the chance for heavy thunderstorms.

ARGENTINA: Soybeans and corn will benefit from adequate to surplus soil

moisture, except in areas where recent heavy storms has caused serious

flooding. A few more days with thunderstorm activity may be followed by a

welcome break in the action.

BRAZIL SOYBEANS: Extreme heat and dryness will continue to stress filling

soybeans for another 2-3 days. Beyond that showers and more seasonal

temperatures may develop which could help ease stress to soybeans. However,

continued rains will be needed during the weeks ahead to prevent further stress

to this crop.

BRAZIL COFFEE AND SUGARCANE AREAS: Temperatures are expected to average above

normal and rainfall below normal during the next 7 to 10 days. This likely

means continued stress to coffee trees and developing sugarcane during this

period. The longer range charts suggest a weakening of the current blocking

ridge over the area which should allow for increasing shower activity and less

heat but there is some uncertainty in this outlook.

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS: Cold weather early this week will give way to warmer

weather late in the week. This change will mostly favor the dormant wheat crop,

except that it will melt the protective snow cover. Improving conditions for

livestock in the area, after the very cold and somewhat snowy start to the

week.

MIDWEST: Another surge of very cold weather is moving in early this week. The

pattern may moderate somewhat later in the week. The storm track is well south

and east during this period, likely remaining south and east of the Midwest

areas.

SOUTH AFRICA: The region looks to be drier and somewhat hotter during this

week. This will bear watching but as of today the maize crop is likely in

mostly good condition. It will take awhile before significant stress will occur

to the crop.

UKRAINE/WEST RUSSIA: Winter wheat areas will be warmer than normal during this

week. Not major concerns for the dormant wheat at this time but the warming

trend may melt some protective snow cover.

CHINA: Moderate to locally heavy snow and rain has occurred through central and

southern winter wheat areas of eastern China and through most winter rapeseed

areas during the past week. This will help to replenish soil moisture and it

will favor crops when they break dormancy in the spring. Snow to the north was

not as heavy but still fairly significant for this time of the year. Snow and

ice and to a lesser extent rain will delay transportation somewhat.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES/FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

WEST: Light snow, mostly less than 0.10 inch melted, occurred in the region

during the weekend period. Temperatures averaged well below normal. The coldest

lows will likely occur this morning. Readings at or below minus 10 F can be

expected from central Iowa and northeast Nebraska northward.

EAST: Light snow and a few snow squalls, mostly 0.15 inch melted or less but

with some locally heavier, occurred during the weekend period. Temperatures

averaged below to well below normal.

Forecast....

WEST: Mostly dry today and early Tuesday. Chance for light snow or snow showers

through northern and eastern areas later Tuesday or Tuesday night. Drier again

Wednesday. Temperatures continue extremely cold today and early Tuesday, not as

cold Wednesday.

Episodes of light snow or snow showers through northern and eastern areas

Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures vary somewhat. Warmer temperatures are

especially likely in the west and south areas.

EAST: Mostly dry today and Tuesday. Dry or with only a little light snow during

Wednesday or Wednesday night. Temperatures average well below normal. The

coldest low temperatures will likely be for Tuesday morning when lows fall to

near zero F in southern Illinois and southwest Indiana and below zero elsewhere

in the region.