ICE Coffee Coils Within Tight Range -Technical Analysis

Kira Brecht

  ICE September coffee futures were slightly weaker Thursday, but the market was consolidating

within recent ranges.

  Following the Aug. 1 bearish reversal, which defined $2.0740 as major resistance, the coffee

market has settled into a short-term neutral range and coiling type of action is seen.

ICE September coffee recently traded down 45 points at $1.8480 a pound.

   In the very short term, strong overhead resistance lies at $1.9545, the Aug. 4 daily high and

important support is seen at $1.7940, the Aug. 8 low. That range has confined ICE September coffee

action since Aug. 4.

  It would take a rally through that initial resistance area to turn the near-term outlook back to

bullish. Or, on the flip side, a retreat under support at $1.7940 would open the door to a retreat

back to the lower end of the larger multi-month trading range.

   Daily Bollinger Bands have narrowed in recent days reflecting a decrease in overall market

volatility. The daily chart pattern doesn't reveal a strongly trending market right now. This is a

market that is searching for direction.

  The 14-day relative strength index, a widely watched momentum indicator, has turned sideways and

hit the 54% area Thursday, which is a neutral mid-range reading. Momentum also reveals a lack of a

strong trend.

   For now, 20-day moving average support at $1.8293 is holding up September coffee. The September

contract has been trading above that moving average since July 23. A sustained push under the 20-day

moving average would be a near-term weak signal.

   If the bears pressure the market below the 20-day moving average and the Aug. 8 daily low at

$1.7940, the coffee market will be vulnerable to slippage toward support at the $1.6600 area.

Conversely, if the bulls rally the market above $1.9545, the coffee market will be positioned for a

retest of the Aug. 1 high at $2.0740.

For now, the market is stuck in neutral, with choppy, sideways trade seen.

Estoques de café do Brasil estão se esgotando, diz centro de comércio

Por Caroline Stauffer

VARGINHA Minas Gerais (Reuters) - Os estoques de passagem de café do Brasil estão se esgotando e o principal produtor global deverá ter dificuldades para acumular excedentes nos próximos anos, depois da maior seca de sua história recente, disse o presidente Centro do Comércio do Café do Estado de Minas Gerais, Archimedes Coli Neto.

O Brasil consumiu cerca de 16 milhões de sacas entre abril e julho, para exportação e consumo interno, estimou o executivo em entrevista à Reuters, citando um volume superior aos estoques estimados pelo governo em 31 de março, de 15,2 milhões de sacas.

"Teoricamente este 'carryover' não existiria mais, mas ele se confunde porque nós tivemos uma safra antecipada este ano e o café novo está sendo misturado com o 'carryover'", disse ele.

Minas Gerais, principal Estado produtor de café, está na fase final de colher, com quebra de safra entre 30 e 35 por cento em algumas áreas. As exportações foram fortes no primeiro semestre, e Coli Neto disse que o Brasil deverá exportar entre 34 milhões e 35 milhões de sacas em 2014, com consumo interno de 20 milhões de sacas.

A safra 2014 deverá ficar abaixo de 45 milhões de sacas, provocando aperto na oferta, e já há preocupações sobre os efeitos da seca para a colheita de 2015.

Isso significa que o Brasil, que no século passado chegou a acumular estoque de 100 milhões de sacas e até queimou o produto para elevar os preços internacional, vislumbra um futuro sem precedentes, sem estoques de café em seus armazéns.

"Dificilmente o Brasil vai conseguir formar estoques reguladores de novo", disse Coli Neto, que representa produtores, exportadores e operadores, como presidente do centro de comercialização com sede em Varginha.

Engenheiros agrônomos estão indicando um crescimento de galhos abaixo da média nos cafezais atingidos pela seca, além de problemas incomuns como ferrugem das folhas em agosto.

Coli Neto disse que muitos produtores podem optar por podar seus pés de café no próximo ano, na esperança de colocá-los em forma para o desenvolvimento de frutos em 2016.

Os preços do café arábica subiram para máximas de dois anos devido às preocupações com a seca, mas muitos produtores brasileiros não estão vendendo sua safra 2014, convencidos de que os preços irão subir ainda mais, disse o executivo.

Mesmo antes da seca, que foi considerada a pior dos últimos 42 anos, os produtores já planejavam ajustes e meios de melhorar a produtividade das plantas, reduzindo as oscilações dos ciclos bianuais, disse Coli Neto.

"Acredito que vamos oscilar entre 45 milhões e 50 milhões de sacas, a não ser que tenhamos problemas climáticos."

Em anos anteriores, a poda era feita em não mais do que 5 por cento dos cafezais a cada ano, mas agora eles estão optando por desbastar 25 a 30 por cento das plantas, o que adia a produção para a temporada posterior.

"Estamos cada dia mais produzindo o que o mercado demanda", disse.

http://br.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idBRKBN0GE1H120140814?sp=true

World Coffee Weather

Rain Returns To Southern Brazil, Flowering Still Not Likely

By Andy Karst

           Kansas City, August 13 (World Weather, Inc.) – Dry weather occurred in Brazil Tuesday before rain increased in northern Parana Tuesday night.  The rain was not likely great enough to stimulate flowering and with most of the rain during the next couple days becoming less intense and shifting to the northeast new flowering does not appear likely.  . Some cooling is expected in the south today and Thursday, but there is no risk of crop threatening cold for the next two weeks.  The Central Highlands of Vietnam is still expected to see an increase in rain Thursday into next week.  Most of the rain should be light, but enough rain should fall to prevent excessive dryness form evolving.   

BRAZIL

            Rain increased in far southern coffee areas Tuesday night and by dawn this morning Londrina, Parana received 19 millimeters of rain.  The rain was not likely great enough to stimulate flowering.  High temperatures were in the upper 20s and lower 30s Celsius.  Lows this morning were in the teens most often with readings of 9 to 11 from portions of northern Sul de Minas to central Minas Gerais and northern Zona de Mata. 

 

       A weak cool front will drift northward from Parana through Sao Paulo to Sul de Minas and Rio de Janeiro today and Thursday. The frontal system will not induce much temperature change, but a few showers may pop up briefly. The precipitation will be insignificant relative to previously flowered coffee. No change in crop or soil moisture will result and flowers will continue to be aborted after prematurely opening as a result of significant rain a couple of weeks ago. The few showers that evolve will produce 1 to 8 millimeters of rain and will favor areas from northern Parana to coastal Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. Other coastal showers will be possible on a near-daily basis in eastern Bahia and Espirito Santo Thursday of this week through the weekend and into the majority of next week. Rainfall along the coast could reach 5 to 15 millimeters on any given day, but nearly all of the precipitation will stay east of coffee and cocoa production areas.

            Temperatures will trend slightly cooler today into Thursday with highs in the lower to middle 20s. A couple of extreme highs in the upper teens are possible due to dense cloudiness today in the far south. Otherwise, daily highs through the next week to ten days will be in the 20s south and in the middle 20s to lower 30s north. Lowest temperatures at night will slip into the range of 6 to 9 degrees periodically from Parana to Sul de Minas while varying 10 to 19 in most other areas with Bahia and northern Espirito Santo warmest. A couple of low temperatures near the Atlantic coast may fail to cool below 20.             

Cotton, Raw Sugar and Arabica Coffee Rebound

Alexandra Wexler

  NEW YORK--Cotton, raw-sugar and arabica coffee prices recovered from slumps during the previous

session, climbing Wednesday as traders and investors saw opportunities to buy.

  Cotton futures fell 1.6% Tuesday after the U.S. Department of Agriculture's revised estimate for

production trounced market expectations for a second consecutive month. Federal forecasters

increased their estimate for U.S. cotton production to the highest in four years, up 6.1% from the

previous report to 17.5 million 480-pound bales during the season that began Aug. 1.

  Cotton for delivery in December on the ICE Futures U.S. exchange was recently up 1% at 63.99 cents

a pound, near the level before the report's release during the previous session.

  "How quickly inventory builds will drive prices, which may or may not be offset by stronger mill

demand and talk of lower cotton planted area in 2015," said Sharon Johnson, senior cotton specialist

and introducing broker for KCG Futures in Atlanta. "There are considerable headwinds for cotton and

the picture is bearish, but weather will have the final word."

  Higher production of the fiber is expected to lead to more cotton left over in U.S. warehouses at

the end of the 2014-15 season. The USDA projects 5.6 million bales of ending stocks, the highest in

six years, and more than double the amount of the fiber left over from the season that ended July

31.

  Raw sugar for October delivery was recently up 0.8% at 16.17 cents a pound, up from Tuesday's tie

of a six-month low settlement from last week.

  The sugar harvest in Brazil, the top grower and exporter, slowed at the end of last month. Mills

in the center-south region, where 90% of Brazil's crop is grown, crushed nearly 36 million metric

tons of cane in the period, down 19% from a year earlier. Sugar output dropped 12% to 2.2 million

tons in the second half of July from a year earlier, industry group Unica said.

  "Yields figures for the second half of the season are certain to be worse, not better, because the

most stressed and least developed cane of the harvesting cycle will comprise virtually all of the

volume that will be crushed," said Phil Pia, a broker at Newedge in New York. "The probability is

increasing that the present crushing season ends abruptly sometime in the middle of October, that

is, about one month earlier than normal."

  Thus far, however, mills have processed more cane than last year, with center-south mills crushing

280.4 million tons of cane, up 3.8%, and producing 15.1 million tons of sugar, up 8.8% from a year

ago, according to Unica.

  Arabica coffee for delivery in September was up 1.5% at $1.8730 a pound as that market continued

to stabilize after a pop above $2 a pound earlier this month.

  Brazil's worst drought in decades earlier this year also stunted the growth of coffee cherries,

which contain the seeds that are roasted and ground before they are brewed to make the beverage. The

extremely dry weather in Brazil, the source of one-third of the world's coffee beans, also hurt

trees' development for next year's harvest, according to some forecasts. That is keeping futures for

the beans supported.

  Orange juice for September delivery was recently 0.3% lower at $1.4350, while December-delivery

cocoa was down 0.5% at $3,222 a ton.

COTAÇÃO DO CAFÉ N.Y. finalizaram a terça-feira em queda



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MERCADO INTERNO
 
BOLSAS N.Y. E B.M.F.
Sul de Minas R$ 450,00 R$ 430,00
Contrato N.Y.
Fechamento
Variação
Mogiano R$ 450,00 R$ 430,00 Setembro/2014 184,60 -4,55
Alta Paulista/Paranaense R$ 440,00 R$ 420,00   Dezembro/2014 188,90 -4,45
Cerrado R$ 460,00 R$ 440,00 Março/2015 192,55 -4,40
Bahiano R$ 440,00 R$ 420,00
* Cafés de aspecto bom, com catação de 10% a 20%.
Contrato BMF
Fechamento
Variação
Setembro/2014 220,45 -5,65
Dezembro/2014 230,30 -5,55
Dólar Comercial: R$ 2,2790 Março/2015 233,85 -5,50


As operações em N.Y. finalizaram a terça-feira em queda,   a posição setembro atingiu na mínima do dia -6,15 pontos finalizando com -4,55.

O dólar comercial fechou em alta de 0,18%), cotado a R$ 2,2790. As atuações do Banco Central brasileiro amenizaram a alta devido a preocupações com a crise na Ucrânia. Sanções trocadas entre países do Ocidente e a Rússia levam investidores a temerem possíveis impactos sobre a economia global. Também há pessimismo em relação à situação no Iraque.

A cooperativa de café Minasul prevê uma colheita de 750 mil sacas de café pelo seus cooperados em 2014, recuo de 40 por cento na comparação com o total obtido em 2013 (1,25 milhão de sacas), por conta da severa estiagem no último verão, disse à Reuters o diretor da instituição Guilherme Salgado Rezende. A Minasul avalia ainda que a safra de café do ano que vem deverá cair 25 por cento ante 2013, ainda por conta dos efeitos da seca do início do ano. O volume seria de 937,5 mil sacas, se confirmada a estimativa. A Minasul é a segunda maior cooperativa do principal estado produtor do país, Minas Gerais. Fonte: Reuters.

A Associação Brasileira de Cafés Especiais (BSCA) firmou uma parceria com o Coffee Quality Institute (CQI), tornando-se In Country Partner – ICP da entidade, para a realização de treinamentos e certificação de café Q-Grader no Brasil. Para se tornar um ICP, a instituição deve ser neutra e manter a integridade na manipulação do sistema de certificação de café e no cumprimento do protocolo e na confidencialidade do processo. Como a BSCA trabalha há muitos anos com certificação de qualidade, é uma entidade imparcial no mercado local e possui knowhow e experiência para a execução do trabalho, foi considerada a instituição ideal pelo CQI. Com a parceria, a BSCA passou a ser o ponto focal de recebimento, codificação e envio de resultados ao banco de dados do Instituto no Brasil e está preparada, oficialmente, a partir deste mês, para o recebimento das amostras para a Certificação Q-Grader. Para acessar a lista completa de ICP’s, acesse o link http://www.coffeeinstitute.org/the-q-coffee-system/icps .

O Instituto Nacional de Ciência e Tecnologia do Café, sediado na Universidade Federal de Lavras – UFLA, inicia suas articulações em torno de uma nova proposta que vai direcionar as pesquisas nos próximos seis anos (2015/2021). O grande diferencial desta vez está na aproximação com o mercado, tendo sido já oficializado o apoio de cinco empresas para o cofinanciamento de diferentes linhas de pesquisa previstas na nova proposta. Sob a coordenação do professor Mário Lúcio Vilela de Resende (DFP/UFLA), várias reuniões estão sendo realizadas para definição de novas parcerias e linhas prioritárias de pesquisa. O objetivo é reunir um time diversificado de pesquisadores e o apoio de instituições públicas e privadas para atender a chamada INCT – MCTI/CNPq/ CAPES/FAPs nº 16/2014, que tem por objetivo apoiar atividades de pesquisa de alto impacto científico em áreas estratégicas e/ou na fronteira do conhecimento. Para ter acesso a matéria completa acessem http://goo.gl/z0dMbw . Fonte: UFLA / ASCOM.

       

Infocafé é um informativo diário, da Mellão Martini

COLHEITA DE CAFÉ DO BRASIL ATINGE 86% DA PRODUÇÃO PARA 

  Café: estimativa da Safras para a produção de café do Brasil em 2014/15 é de 48,9 milhões de sacas de 60 quilos A colheita de café do Brasil, até o dia 7 de agosto, atingiu 86 por cento da produção prevista na safra 2014/15, contra 74 por cento do mesmo período do ano anterior, informou a consultoria Safras & Mercado nesta segunda-feira.

O percentual também está à frente se comparado à média dos últimos 5 anos, de 81 por cento para esta época do ano.

Na comparação com a semana anterior, a colheita avançou três pontos percentuais e segue avançada graças ao tempo seco do início do ano que acelerou o desenvolvimento das plantas.

Esta seca, porém, deve provocar uma quebra de cerca de 8 por cento ante a produção da safra anterior, segundo estimativa da Safras.

A estimativa da Safras para a produção de café do Brasil em 2014/15 é de 48,9 milhões de sacas de 60 quilos, sendo que 41,97 milhões de sacas já foram colhidas.

Minas Gerais, o principal produtor do país, já colheu 80 por cento de sua produção prevista, contra 66 por cento colhidos no mesmo período do ano passado.

Até o momento, os produtores do Estado colheram 18,5 milhões de sacas, de uma produção estimada em 23,10 milhões de sacas. 

Fonte: Reuters

Cotton, Raw-Sugar Futures Sink on Expectations of Ample Supplies

Leslie Josephs

  NEW YORK-Cotton and sugar prices eased Tuesday after new figures showed ample supplies of both

commodities.

  Cotton for delivery in December on the ICE Futures U.S. exchange fell 1.6% to 63.37 cents a pound,

after the U.S. Department of Agriculture raised its forecast for the U.S. crop this year by 6% from

its previous estimate.

  In its monthly supply-and-demand report, the USDA said U.S. growers would likely reap a 17.5

million-bale crop this season, which would be the largest crop in four years.

  "The U.S. number is bearish, you can't get around that," said Sharon Johnson, a senior cotton

specialist and introducing broker at KCG Futures in Atlanta.

  Growers increased production as prices hit a more than two-year high this spring. Futures prices

have fallen by a third since peaking at 94.75 cents a pound in May.

  Raw sugar for October delivery fell 1.2% to 16.05 cents a pound, tying with the nearly six-month

low that the contract reached Thursday.

  Prices fell even after industry figures showed a slowdown in sugar-cane processing in top producer

Brazil last month.

  Mills in the center-south region, where 90% of Brazil's crop is grown, crushed nearly 36 million

metric tons of cane in the period, down 19% from a year earlier. Sugar output dropped 12% to 2.2

million tons in the second half of July from a year earlier, industry group Unica said. Ethanol

production fell 16% to 1.6 billion liters. "This decline is due to the rains that occurred in part

of the sugar-cane-producing region and the lower crushing rate at various mills due to the prospect

of reduced supply of raw material," said Antonio de Padua Rodrigues, Unica's technical director.

  Mills are concerned that a drought earlier this year hurt the development of the crop and is

expected to dent the size of this year's crop. Thus far, however, mills have processed more cane

than last year, with center-south mills crushing 280.4 million tons of cane, up 3.8%, and producing

15.1 million tons of sugar, up 8.8% from a year ago, according to Unica data, as they rushed to

process all the cane they could. But analysts say the harvest could come to an abrupt end due to the

effects of the drought.

In addition, there isn't a home for Brazil's sugar, analysts say.

  "Offtake is still very slow," said Newedge analyst Phil Pia. The sugar is adding to global

supplies, he said. The International Sugar Organization expects global production to outpace demand

at the season's end in September for a fourth consecutive year. In other markets, cocoa futures hit

a new more-than-three-year high, with December cocoa gaining 0.5% to end at $3,238 a ton, the

highest active-month settlement since May 3, 2011.

  Arabica coffee for September delivery fell 2.4% to end at $1.8460 a pound, giving up more than

half of the previous session's gains, while the September contract for orange-juice concentrate was

nearly flat at $1.4390 a pound.

Arabica Coffee Snaps 3-Week Winning Streak; Cocoa Eases

Leslie Josephs

  NEW YORK--Arabica-coffee prices posted their first weekly drop in four weeks, as exports surged

from Brazil, easing worries over supplies from the source of one-third of the world's coffee.

  Arabica coffee for delivery in September fell 1.7% to $1.8085 a pound, the lowest settlement since

July 29.

  Prices are down 13% since hitting a nearly three-month peak of $2.0740 a pound last week after wet

weather in Brazil fueled concerns that premature flowering would hurt next year's crop.

  But robust stockpiles have helped Brazilian exporters meet strong demand for coffee, figures

released this week showed.

  Brazil exported 2.98 million 60-kilogram bags of coffee in July, a third more than in the same

month of 2013, the Coffee Exporters Council of Brazil, known as CeCafe, said Thursday.

  Of those bags, 2.24 million contained green, or unroasted, arabica beans, the variety used by

roasters such as Starbucks Corp. The number of bags of green arabica rose 29% from a year ago.

  Since the start of 2014, Brazil's coffee exports have totaled 20.56 million bags, nearly 19% more

than the year-earlier period, CeCafe said.

  It wasn't clear whether the pace would continue as exporters and growers worked through stockpiled

coffee from the previous harvest.

  "The continuation of this favorable performance for the following months is subject to the harvest

in progress," said CeCafe Director-general Guilherme Braga.

  Cocoa futures eased from a more than three-year high. September cocoa ended 0.1% lower at $3,228 a

ton, but futures still notched their third consecutive weekly gain, rising 0.7%.

  This year's rise in cocoa prices has eaten into profit margins at candy companies including Nestle

SA.

  The "cocoa price is putting pressure on all chocolate, on all confectionery players' margins, and

we're no exception," said Nestle's chief financial officer, Wan Ling Martello, in an earnings call

this week.

  Raw sugar for October ended 0.6% higher at 16.14 cents a pound, rebounding from a more than

five-month settlement low. Orange-juice concentrate firmed from a six-month settlement low to end

0.6% higher at $1.40 a pound.

Cotton for December gained 0.3% to settle at 64.21 cents a pound.

ICE Coffee Testing 20-Day Moving Average -- Technical Analysis

Kira Brecht

  ICE September coffee futures fell Friday toward 20-day moving average support at 178.38. The bears

marked out a minor top at the Aug. 1 high and have pressured coffee prices lower in recent days. In

the very short-term, the 20-day moving average support zone will be a critical area to monitor.

ICE September coffee recently traded down 320 points at $1.8080 a pound.

  Looking at action in recent weeks, ICE September coffee posted a decent rally move off the

mid-July low. However, the bulls ran into a trouble on a push above the $2.0000 ceiling. Daily

action on Aug. 1 saw a large range day, which formed a "bearish shooting star" on the daily

candlestick chart. That formation confirms a minor top at the $2.0740 high from that day.

  From the Aug. 1 high at $2.0740, the bears have pressed ICE coffee lower into Friday's low at

$1.7940, which is for now holding above 20-day moving average support. The September coffee contract

has been trading above the 20-day moving average since July 23. If sustained declines are achieved

under that area, it would trigger another bearish chart signal and open the door to continuing near

term declines.

  Daily momentum studies have turned bearish in recent days. The nine-day relative strength index,

or RSI, a widely watched momentum tool has turned down from previously overbought levels and is

pointing lower. The nine-day RSI touched a high at 80% on July 31, before turning down to Friday's

reading at 48%.

  In the very short-term the 20-day moving average could act as support for the market. Initial

resistance lies at $1.8635. If the bulls can reclaim that ceiling it would open the door to near

term sideways consolidation, following the recent declines.

  However, if the bears are successful in forcing a settlement under the 20-day moving average over

the next several days, it would be a weak signal that would ultimately leave coffee prices

vulnerable to declines back toward the mid-July low at $1.5925 a pound.

  On a larger multi-month basis, the trend outlook remains neutral within a very large range. Since

March, ICE September coffee has been trading higher and lower with in a sideways band bordered by

$2.2060 on the topside and $1.6600/$1.5925 on the downside. The Aug. 1 rally move represented a push

toward the upper end of the trading range, which was quickly rejected. The near term outlook is

sideways to lower.