12 milhões de sacas de café a menos, o que esperar.

12 milhões de sacas de café a menos, o que esperar.

O mercado cafeeiro teve uma reviravolta nestes últimos dias, onde em um só mês, o de fevereiro, teve uma valorização de nada menos do que 56%. Uma mudança desta e com tal violência só existe explicação no clima, onde as condições não ficaram favoráveis para o cultivo do nosso cafezinho. No mês de novembro passado na rolagem do mês de dezembro para março, onde não houve o rompimento de $1,00 por libra peso, e quando nas ultimas rolagens em toda tendência de baixa iniciado em 2.011 tivemos um rali de baixa, algo parecia fora do tom, parecia uma premissa, mas naquele período ainda não tínhamos nada para nos pegarmos, a não ser, a não quebra do nível psicológico de $1,00 por libra, onde havia projeções inclusive minha de irmos a $0,80 por libra. Logo no inicio do mês de janeiro uma grande trading do mercado, veio com uma nova projeção de safra brasileira para o ano 2.014/2.015, onde segundo esta empresa não teríamos a produção declarada por ela e por 10 em 10 empresas do mercado, onde se projetava uma safra de café brasileiro em torno de 60 milhões de sacas de café, e sim teríamos uma safra em torno de 51 milhões de sacas. Esta declaração trouxe muito frisson ao mercado, pois como uma empresa vem a publica dizer que tinha errado uma bagatela de 15%, onde teoricamente uma estimativa possuiu erro estatístico entre 2% a mais e 2% amenos. Em sua explicação ao mercado ela veio com a teoria de que o cafeeiro tinha se colhido duas safras seguidas de safras grandes, o preço trouxe um menor trato cultural pelo produtor ao cafeeiro, e o preço não remunerativo teria feito que o produtor tomasse a atitude de uma poda mais drástica tirando uma grande parte da lavoura de produção, também trouxe a explicação de que a grande florada vivenciada não teve o seu pegamento pleno. Logicamente o mercado reagiu e os fundos que vinham trazendo uma posição vendida desde o ultimo topo em 2.011, e não vendo grandes possibilidades de lucro na ponta vendedora, e começou a comprar realizando um grande lucro em sua operação. Junto a este movimento em janeiro e fevereiro tivemos uma super. veranico com temperaturas bem acima do normal, e um índice pluviométrico bem abaixo do normal, ou seja, uma tragédia onde a reação imediata dos fundos que estão sempre ávidos aos lucros, realizaram seus lucros na venda e se posicionaram na compra, e deixaram os vendidos numa situação difícil, na ultima rolagem de mês , agora na semana de 20 fevereiro. Bom este resumo acima é para dar inicio a uma discussão para saber onde este mercado tão rápido e volátil pode ir de agora para frente, nos próximos 24 meses. Sabemos que o clima trouxe uma quebra na produção e que esta quebra já é irreversível mesmo que haja chuva de agora para sempre, vamos a alguns dados.

Produção mundial de café por país em milhões de sacas.

                   13/14                14/15

Brasil             57                  (45) estimado

Vietnam         29                    29

 Colômbia       10                    11

Índia                  5                   5,5

Indonésia        11                    10

Peru                4,5                   3,7

Honduras          4                        4

Etiópia             4,7                    4,7

México              4,0                   4,0

Guatemala        2,7                    2,8

Uganda              3,2                   3,5

Outros                18                   17,2

Total                  153,1               140,4

Consumo de café em milhões de sacas

                      13/14                     14/15

Europa              49,6                       50

América do norte 27                        28

Ásia                    33.3                     35

África                     9                          9

América latina         9,3                     9,5

Brasil                   20,1                     20,8

Total                     148,3                  152,3

Nas tabelas acimas vemos que no ultimo ano safra tivemos uma sobra de estoque na razão de 5 milhões de sacas de café na qual foi introduzido aos estoques, e vemos que neste ano safra 2.014/2.015 uma possibilidade de quebra na razão de 12 milhões de sacas. O ano safra 2.015/16 embora esteja cedo para se falar em números , já se sabia de ante mão que seria uma safra brasileira menor, consequentemente mundial também, pelos fatores da bienualidade , tratos culturais inferiores em razão dos baixos preços praticados no mercado, e grande quantidade podas, portanto me arrisco a dizer que teremos duas safras em torno de 45 milhões de sacas ou teremos mais déficit de produção versus consumo que também deve ficar na casa de 12 milhões de sacas ou em 24 meses de 24 milhões se sacas o que vai derrubar os estoques de passagem ao nível mais baixo da historia. O que esperar deste mercado ainda é algo imprevisível, mas com uma única certeza temos espaço para subir bem com estrago desta seca nunca vivenciada por nos. Se a ultima grande alta que tivemos que terminou em 2.011, foi uma quebra em torno de 3 milhões de sacas de café na Colômbia , mas não houve uma diminuição nos estoques, pois Brasil e Vietnã estavam com safras grandes, o que imaginar de uma quebra dessas por causa deste verão brasileiro e que teremos não uma falta de mercadoria , mas uma diminuição nos estoques de passagem, e grande disputa pelo estoque para industrialização, já que a indústria não pode parar . O problema hoje é grande, muito grande, não queria estar na pele dos vendidos, estar na posição comprado ficou tão fácil de ganhar dinheiro quanto chutar um cachorro morto. O preço irá subir com certeza, em uma clara tendência de alta, ou seja, teremos topos e fundos ascendentes, o que significa que teremos correções técnicas e depois iremos subir e romper o antigo topo, ou seja, preços sempre crescentes nos próximos 24 meses. Estes preços melhores trarão uma melhor remuneração de preços e que vai trazer um otimismo ao produtor que andava cabisbaixo, e com isso melhore tratos culturais e se o tempo correr normal sem mais nenhuma anomalia climática, haverá um superávit, o fim desta tendência de alta que se inicia e novamente teremos uma nova tendência de baixa , portanto aos produtores agora aproveitar os ventos a favor para vender café a cada semana com preços melhores do que a semana passada. O dólar que é uma variante a ser analisada neste espaço, já esta em tendência de alta , onde projeções nos mostra que poderemos atingir a casa de R$2,75 até o fim deste ano , o que pode impedir o preço na bolsa ICE em Nova Iorque de atingir topos históricos, mas em real não tenho dúvida de que em real iremos romper as máximas de preços atingida na ultima tendência de alta. O mercado está começando a subir, o que os produtores têm a fazer é curtir esta onda, e aproveitar os preços .

Um bom carnaval a todos e que Deus nos abençoe.

Wagner Pimentel www.cafezinhocomamigos.blogspot.com

- See more at: http://www.redepeabirus.com.br/redes/form/post?topico_id=50701#sthash.ChchHceT.dpuf

Wolthers Douque Cuts Brazil Coffee-Crop Forecast to 47.7m Bags

Bloomberg - Marvin G. Perez

The forecast for 2014 production

compares with a previous est. of 53m bags, Christian Wolthers,

president of the Fort Lauderdale, Florida-based coffee importer,

said today in an e-mailed report.

  * Drought has reduced bean size, and growers cut use of

    fertilizers

  * For 2015 harvest, company sees output at 40m-42m bags

  * Lower branch growth, fewer fruits and too much pruning late

    this season will lower crop potential next year as farmers

    collect the smaller of two harvests in a biennial cycle

  * Stockpiles from last year’s harvest, estimated at 9m bags as

    of Jan., have been sold during the 2014 rally

  * NOTE: Brazil is the world’s largest producer and exporter

  * NOTE: Wolthers has been trading coffee for more than 3

    decades

  * NOTE: Prices for arabica coffee in New York rebounded 65%

    this yr after a 23% slump in 2013

  * NOTE: A Bag weighs 60 kgs, or 132 lbs

Brazil Coffee Weather - Mar 5

SAO PAULO AND MINAS GERAIS

SUMMARY- Mostly dry or a few light showers during the past 24 hours.

Temperatures 81-90F (27-32C).

FORECAST-

TODAY...Mostly dry or a few light showers. Temperatures 81-91F (27-33C).

TONIGHT...Mostly dry conditions or a few light showers. Temperatures 60-69F

(16-21C).

TOMORROW...Scattered showers and thundershowers developing, amounts 0.20-0.75

inch (5-19 mm). Temperatures 78-88F (26-31C).

OUTLOOK...Episodes of scattered showers and thundershowers Friday through

Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal during this period.

BRAZIL COFFEE PROSPECTS...

There is potential of showers and thundershowers later this week and weekend

which could ease stress on developing citrus. Drier weather may return

thereafter.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/04/us-noble-cofco-idUSBREA230AT20140304

Exclusive: China's COFCO in talks to buy Noble's agribusiness arm-sources

(Reuters) - China's biggest grains trader COFCO Corp is in talks to buy Noble Group Ltd's agribusiness arm in a deal that would value the division at around $1 billion, people familiar with the matter said.

Acquiring the Noble unit would help China develop a powerful agricultural trading house, an entity the country has lacked. Chinese trading firm Unipec is already one of the world's biggest crude oil buyers.

State-backed COFCO, which last week agreed to buy a 51-percent stake in Dutch grain trader Nidera, is conducting due diligence on the Noble unit, said the sources who declined to be identified because the matter is not yet public.

The precise stage of the talks was not clear, the people said, cautioning that a deal may or may not materialize for the unit which trades and processes grains.

Noble shares jumped as much as 8.6 percent to S$1.075, the highest since January 2 after the Reuters story, adding around $450 million in market value. The benchmark Straits Times Index .FTSTI was 0.

Noble Group said in a statement that it was currently engaged in discussions with a consortium over a potential joint venture around its agriculture business, but no binding arrangements had yet been entered into. The Noble statement did not identify COFCO as part of the consortium.

A COFCO spokesman said he was not aware of talks with Noble.

WAVE OF CONSOLIDATION

An acquisition push by state-run COFCO comes after a wave of consolidation in the global agribusiness sector - including deals by Japanese firms to snap up rivals - that has largely passed China by.

The Nidera acquisition is COFCO's first major overseas purchase of a trading house and signals China's ambition to create a global trading company along the lines of Japanese, European and U.S. trading giants.

Last year, Japanese trading house Marubeni Corp (8002.T) agreed to pay $5.6 billion for U.S. grain merchant Gavilon while Glencore (GLEN.L) bought Viterra Inc, Canada's largest grain handler, for $6 billion in 2012.

"Noble has been trying to sell their ags business for a while but we are not sure what COFCO will gain out of it," said an industry analyst in Australia. "The consolidation in the industry has already taken place and it seems like they are trying to get hold of what is available."

Noble is one of Asia's so-called NOW commodity traders, along with Olam International Ltd and Wilmar International Ltd, challenging the ABCD majors - Archer Daniels Midland (ADM.N), Bunge (BG.N), Cargill CARG.UL and (Louis) Dreyfus LOUDR.UL - which dominate grain flows.

Noble, which is 14-percent-owned by sovereign wealth fund China Investment Corp.CIC.UL, trades sugar, coffee and raw materials like iron ore. Its agricultural division is the smallest and generated $15.5 billion revenue last fiscal year, accounting for about 16 percent of the total.

Noble's net profit tumbled 48 percent last fiscal year after its agricultural business swung to an operating loss. But the performance of the unit has improved over the last year.

In 2011, the Hong Kong-based trading house considered listing its agribusiness in an IPO which could have raised $700 million, sources said at the time, but the plan was shelved.

FOOD SECURITY

China is looking for new sources of supplies to ensure food security and meet a growing demand for high-protein products fuelled by rising incomes.

Asked about its M&A intentions previously, COFCO has said that a key strategy is to increase supply sources worldwide to boost food security and also focus on firms that have the network to help export finished and processed food products.

Last week's Nidera deal gives the world's most populous country direct access to South American grain and oilseeds.

"Food security is a number one priority for China and you will see COFCO aggressively pursuing more acquisitions," one person familiar with COFCO's thinking said.

COFCO has already diversified into downstream activities such as milling, soybean crushing and pig breeding. In recent years, it has also expanded into branded foodstuffs, setting up an online platform to sell packaged foods to China's safety conscious food consumers, and marketing high-end products like its Great Wall wine brand, chocolate and edible oils.

Noble's grains and oilseeds operations focus on South America, Europe and Asia. It operates three oil seed processing factories in Asia, and supplies grains, oilseeds, vegetable oil and by-products throughout the region from Singapore.

(Additional reporting by Eveline Danubrata in SINGAPORE and Dominique Patton and Shuping Niu in BEIJING; Editing by Michael Flaherty, Amran Abocar and Ed Davies)

Early Ag Weather Watch - Feb 28

EARLY LOOK WEATHER REPORT

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...84 AT THERMAL CA

LOW  THU...36 BELOW ZERO AT CRANE LAKE MN AND KABETOGAMA MN

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 06:00 PM CT...LOS ANGELES CA  1.07 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the next 5-7

days, only fair agreement during days 8-10. I am using a compromise between the

models as it concerns the 8-10 day period but with a slight bias towards the US

model.

The short range maps, days 1-5, first deal with the extreme cold event

currently moving over the central US region and then deal with a major snow and

ice storm set up for the eastern and southern Midwest and northern Delta areas.

The longer range maps from today's US model shows some moderation in

temperatures early in the 6-10 day period but with more cold weather possible

late in the period...especially over the Midwest region. Precipitation light to

locally moderate will favor the east and south Midwest and the Delta. The

European model suggests the moderation in temperatures lasts longer into the

6-10 day period and the cooler conditions at the end of the period are not as

cold looking as on the US model. Precipitation mostly light and confined to the

east and south Midwest and Delta. Neither model shows anything of significance

for the central/south plains wheat belt during the 6-10 day period. The US

model has some precipitation during days 1-3 while the European models is even

lighter then that.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

ARGENTINA: Mostly dry weather with a warming trend during the 6 day period.

This will favor developing crops, after recent heavy rains. A possible

exception to this is over eastern Buenos Aires where a few thunderstorms may

develop, associated with an upper level trough.

BRAZIL SOYBEANS/CORN: Periodic scattered showers and seasonal temperatures will

favor filling crops and early developing second crop corn. Local delays

continue for harvesting the early crops and planting the second crop corn due

to showers. The pattern does not look as wet during the coming days which

should allow for some improvement, except of course in areas impacted by local

thundershowers.

BRAZIL COFFEE, CITRUS, SUGARCANE AREAS: A cold front moves into the main crop

areas today and drifts through the north and east areas tomorrow and Sunday.

This should lead to light to moderate showers which will help ease stress to

developing crops. Somewhat drier and hotter weather may redevelop early next

week. The next chance for scattered showers appears to be late in the week.

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS: Scattered light to locally moderate precipitation during

this weekend will favor dormant winter wheat. Only minor concerns for livestock

areas of the western plains.

MIDWEST: Extreme cold continues to greatly increase usage of natural gas for

heating during the next 5-6 days. Somewhat less cold is possible after that. A

major snow and ice event is shaping up for the southern and eastern Midwest and

the northern Delta region for the weekend period. This likely impacts travel

and transport for these locations. Somewhat less snow is expected in Iowa,

especially northern Iowa, with this system. It does not appear cold enough to

harm Soft Red Wheat in areas that do not have a protective snow cover.

SOUTH AFRICA: Warm to hot temperatures today will be followed by scattered

showers and thundershowers during the weekend period and early next week. This

is mostly a favorable weather pattern for filling maize and developing

sugarcane.

CHINA: Moderate to locally heavy snow and rain has occurred through central and

southern winter wheat areas of eastern China and through most winter rapeseed

areas during February. This will help to replenish soil moisture and it will

favor crops when they break dormancy in the spring. Snow to the north was not

as heavy but still fairly significant for this time of the year. Snow and ice

and to a lesser extent rain will have delayed transportation somewhat. The

weather pattern currently favors additional chances for snow or rain through

the Yangtze river valley and the southern part of the North China Plain.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES/FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

WEST: Dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged much, much below

normal yesterday.

EAST: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged below to much

below normal.

Forecast....

WEST: Chance for light snow or snow showers later today or during tonight,

favoring northern areas. Light to locally moderate snow may develop through

central and southern areas during Saturday. Snow and mixed precipitation may

continue during Sunday for Missouri while the balance of the region is drier.

Temperatures averaged much, much below normal. The average of the high and low

this Sunday may be 30 degrees or more below normal.

Mostly dry Monday. Dry or with only a little light snow in northern areas

Tuesday and Wednesday. The extreme cold continues Monday and early Tuesday, not

as cold but still well below normal later Tuesday and during Wednesday.

EAST: Dry or with only a few afternoon snow showers today. Light snow may occur

through northern and western areas during Saturday or Saturday night. Heavier

snow and freezing rain is expected during Sunday, Sunday night and early

Monday. Precipitation totals are expected to reach 0.50-1.50 inches either side

of the Ohio river with heavy snow or a major ice storm possible. Precipitation

of 0.25 inch or more may reach north to just south of Chicago and Detroit.

Temperatures average much, much below normal during this period.

Snow may linger through southeast areas early Monday, dry later Monday. Dry

or with only a little light snow or snow showers Tuesday and Wednesday.

Temperatures average well below normal during this period.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average below normal during this

period. Precipitation should average near to above normal through the south and

east areas, near to below normal northwest.

Forecast: Mostly dry or with only a few scattered snow showers today. Chance

for light to locally moderate snow, ice and rain showers during Saturday and

early Sunday. Precipitation totals likely average 0.10-0.50 inch through

eastern areas, mostly 0.10 inch or less through the west. Temperatures average

below normal north and above normal south today, below normal north and central

areas and above normal south Saturday, below or well below normal Sunday.

Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Dry or with only a few light showers during

Wednesday. Temperatures average well below normal Monday, below or well below

normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday.

6-10 Day Outlook...Temperatures are expected to vary somewhat during this

period. Precipitation averages near to below normal.

Brazil (Corn, Soybeans, Citrus, Coffee, Sugarcane)

Summary...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: Scattered light to moderate showers were reported

in eastern Parana yesterday. Mostly dry elsewhere in the region during the past

24 hours. Temperatures averaged near normal in northern Parana, below normal

elsewhere in the region.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and Goias: A few thundershowers occurred yesterday or

overnight last night in Mato Grosso and western Goias. Mostly dry elsewhere in

the region. Temperatures averaged near to below normal in MGDS, near to above

normal elsewhere in the region.

Sao Paulo/Minas Gerais: Mostly dry yesterday. Scattered showers and

thundershowers have moved into Sao Paulo overnight. Temperatures averaged above

normal yesterday. Highs averaging 90-95F (32-35C) in most areas.

Forecast...

Rio Grande do Sul, Parana, MGDS: Mostly dry today and Saturday. Chance for a

few light to locally moderate showers Sunday or Sunday night. Temperatures

average below normal today, near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal

Sunday.

Scattered light to moderate showers and thundershowers are possible Monday

and Tuesday. Drier in the south, lingering showers and thundershowers north,

during Wednesday. Temperatures average near to below normal south, near to

above normal north.

Sao Paulo/Minas Gerais: Scattered light to moderate showers and thundershowers,

0.25-0.75 inch (6-20 mm) and locally heavier, develop in Sao Paulo today and

move into Minas Gerais tonight or during Saturday. A few light showers with

locally heavier may linger in the region Sunday. Temperatures average near to

above normal today, near to below normal tomorrow, near to above normal Sunday.

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers during Monday. Scattered showers

during Tuesday and Wednesday will mainly occur in west and south Sao Paulo.

Temperatures average near to above normal Monday through Wednesday.

Argentina (Corn, Soybean, Wheat)

Summary...Cordoba, Sante Fe, Buenos Aires, La Pampa.

Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged below normal

yesterday.

Forecast...

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers through eastern Buenos Aires

during today through Sunday. Temperatures may turn warmer today and Saturday,

cooler again Sunday.

A few showers and thundershowers may develop in eastern Buenos Aires Monday

and early Tuesday. Drier again later Tuesday and during Wednesday. The balance

of the region continues mostly dry or with only a few very light showers Monday

through Wednesday. Temperatures average near to above normal in the west, near

to below normal east.

Joel Burgio

http://www.noticiasagricolas.com.br/videos/entrevistas/135708-entrevista-confira-a-entrevista-com-jose-braz-matiello---eng-agronomo-fund-procafe.html#.UxBMB3l8OUk

Entrevista com José Braz Matiello - Eng. Agrônomo Fund. Procafé

Minas Gerais completa 60 dias sem chuvas e grãos de café que não foram formados, por conta da seca, não podem ser recuperados. Chuvas satisfatórias são previstas para daqui a 10 dias e prejuízos devem continuar avançando, principalmente em lavouras mais novas.

Commodities Market Impact Weather: Snow and Ice in Midwest

  OMAHA - A snow and ice storm for the Midwest and mostly favorable trends in South America are the

primary weather items for the commodity trade's attention Friday.

MIDWEST SNOW AND ICE STORM

  The DTN ag weather forecast calls for extreme cold in the Midwest to greatly increase usage of

natural gas for heating during the next five to six days. Somewhat less cold weather is possible

after that. A major snow and ice event is shaping up for the southern and eastern Midwest and the

northern Delta region for the weekend. This likely will disrupt travel and transportation for these

locations. Somewhat less snow is expected in Iowa, especially northern Iowa, with this system. It

does not appear cold enough to harm soft red winter wheat in areas that do not have a protective

snow cover.

LIGHT SOUTHERN PLAINS WEEKEND MOISTURE

  Southern Plains wheat areas will see scattered light to locally moderate precipitation during this

weekend, which will favor dormant winter wheat. The upcoming storm system is expected to generate

only minor concerns for livestock areas of the western Plains.

SCATTERED BRAZIL ROW-CROP AREA SHOWERS

  Across Brazil's row-crop areas, periodic scattered showers and seasonal temperatures will favor

filling crops and early-developing second crop corn. Local delays continue for harvesting the early

crops and planting the second crop corn due to showers. The pattern does not look as wet during the

coming days, which should allow for some improvement, except in areas affected by local

thundershowers.

WEEKEND SHOWERS IN BRAZIL COFFEE AREAS

  A cold front moves into the main Brazil coffee and sugar cane areas Friday and drifts through the

north and east areas during the weekend. This should lead to light to moderate showers which will

help ease stress to developing crops. Somewhat drier and hotter weather may redevelop early next

week. The next chance for scattered showers appears to be late in the week.

DRY AND WARM IN ARGENTINA

  Central Argentina will have mostly dry weather with a warming trend during the six-day period.

This will favor developing crops, after recent heavy rains. A possible exception to this is over

eastern Buenos Aires where a few thunderstorms may develop.

FAVORABLE CHINA SOIL MOISTURE

  Moderate to locally heavy snow and rain has occurred through central and southern winter wheat

areas of eastern China and through most winter rapeseed areas during February. This will help to

replenish soil moisture and it will favor crops when they break dormancy in the spring. Snow to the

north was not as heavy, but still fairly significant for this time of the year. Snow and ice, and to

a lesser extent rain, will delay transportation somewhat. The weather pattern currently favors

additional chances for snow or rain through the Yangtze River valley and the southern part of the

North China Plain.

WEEKEND RAINFALL FOR SOUTH AFRICA

  Across South Africa, warm to hot weather Friday will be followed by scattered showers and

thundershowers during the weekend and early next week. This is mostly a favorable weather pattern

for filling maize and developing sugarcane.

Robusta Coffee Gains; Vietnamese Supply Tight -- Market Talk

Robusta coffee futures are higher, with Liffe's March contract up 0.3% on the

day at $2,105/tonne. "Movement [of coffee] from Vietnam continues to be slow as domestic prices,

while improved, are not high enough to generate much in the way of product flows," says Sterling

Smith, a futures specialist at Citigroup. "Vietnamese producers are willing to hold beans, as when

Arabica supplies begin to tighten roasters may be inclined to blend more Robusta." Arabica is a more

expensive coffee bean, used in gourmet blends. The majority of robusta production is used for

intstant coffee powders.

With arabica, sugar volatile, ICE tweaks trading limit rules

Reuters - Feb 27, 2014 

ICE Futures U.S. on Thursday broadened its rules designed to limit volatility for the second time in a week, as its coffee and raw sugar markets face unusual volatility, with arabica marking its biggest monthly surge in 20 years.

The exchange said it will reject limit orders placed outside of the maximum trading range designed to prevent "fat finger errors" by errant traders starting March 10. The amendment to the rule, called a reasonability limit, means that any limit order to sell below the limit or to buy above it, at the time the order is entered, will be rejected.

Currently, certain conditions allow some of these orders to be accepted.

This latest revision comes just a week after the exchange raised the reasonability limit levels for its arabica coffee futures contracts as the market became increasingly volatile, with speculative buying pouring into the market on concern about drought damage in top grower Brazil.