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quinta-feira, 27 de fevereiro de 2014

Early Ag Weather Watch - Feb 27

EARLY LOOK WEATHER REPORT

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...88 AT FORT LAUDERDALE FL AND POMPANO BEACH FL

LOW WED...25 BELOW ZERO AT CLARK WY AND SHIRLEY BASIN WY

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 06:00 PM CT...NEW ORLEANS LA 1.85 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the next 10

days. I am using a compromise between the models today. The strong secondary

arctic surge that the US model has been forecasting for the plains and Midwest

regions behind the snow storm this weekend is now somewhat weaker and further

to the east.

The short range maps, days 1-5, first show the extreme cold event continuing

for the next few days and then show the moderate to heavy precipitation event

developing over the southeast plains and the southwest Midwest before moving

through the Delta, the south and east Midwest regions.

The longer range maps, days 6-10, continue to show the high latitude

blocking ridge located northwest of Alaska. We see the strong polar vortex over

northern Canada during this period. A weak ridge is expected to develop over

the western US, mostly later in the period. A broad trough is located either

side of the Miss river. This is a cold pattern for Canada and the northern tier

of U.S. states. This is a somewhat warmer pattern for the southern U.S. region

and variable elsewhere in the U.S. Precipitation chances look to be highest

from the lower Miss and Ohio river valleys to the east coast.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

ARGENTINA: Mostly dry weather with a warming trend during the 6 day period.

This will favor developing crops, after recent heavy rains.

BRAZIL SOYBEANS/CORN: Periodic scattered showers and seasonal temperatures will

favor filling crops and early developing second crop corn. Local delays

continue for harvesting the early crops and planting the second crop corn due

to showers. The pattern does not look as wet during the coming days which

should allow for some improvement, except of course in areas impacted by local

thundershowers.

BRAZIL COFFEE, CITRUS, SUGARCANE AREAS: A weakening cold front will drift into

the very dry areas of eastern Sao Paulo and western Minas Gerais during this

weekend. This may allow for scattered light showers with isolated heavier. This

should help ease stress to crops, somewhat. However, more rain will be needed

to end concerns and to prevent further declines in crop prospects. The next

chance for scattered showers to occur appears to be later next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS: Scattered light to locally moderate precipitation during

this weekend will favor dormant winter wheat. Only minor concerns for livestock

areas of the western plains.

MIDWEST: Extreme cold continues to greatly increase usage of natural gas for

heating during the next 5-6 days. Somewhat less cold is possible after that. A

major snow and ice event is shaping up for the southern and eastern Midwest and

the northern Delta region for the weekend period. This likely impacts travel

and transport for these locations. Somewhat less snow is expected in Iowa,

especially northern Iowa, with this system. It does not appear cold enough to

harm Soft Red Wheat in areas that do not have a protective snow cover.

SOUTH AFRICA: Warm to hot temperatures today and Friday will be followed by

scattered showers and thundershowers during the weekend period. This is mostly

a favorable weather pattern for filling maize and developing sugarcane.

CHINA: Moderate to locally heavy snow and rain has occurred through central and

southern winter wheat areas of eastern China and through most winter rapeseed

areas during February. This will help to replenish soil moisture and it will

favor crops when they break dormancy in the spring. Snow to the north was not

as heavy but still fairly significant for this time of the year. Snow and ice

and to a lesser extent rain will have delayed transportation somewhat. The

weather pattern currently favors additional chances for snow or rain through

the Yangtze river valley and the southern part of the North China Plain.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES/FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

WEST: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged at least 15 to

25 degrees below normal yesterday.

EAST: Snow showers and a few squalls occurred in northern areas during the past

24 hours. Dry elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged 20-25 degrees

below normal.

Forecast....

WEST: Dry today. Chance for light snow or snow showers during Friday. Mainly

dry north, chance for snow south, during Saturday. Temperatures average well

below normal.

Snow may linger through in Missouri and southeast Iowa during Sunday. Dry

Monday. Dry or with only a little light precipitation in the north during

Tuesday. Temperatures average well below normal during this period.

EAST: Mostly dry today. Dry or with only a little light snow or snow showers

during Friday and Saturday. Temperatures average well below normal.

Snow or freezing rain is expected during Sunday and Sunday night. Heavy

precipitation may occur, favoring southern and eastern areas. Snow may linger

in the east, drier west, during Monday. Dry or with only a little light

precipitation Tuesday. Temperatures average well below normal during this

period.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average below to near normal

during this period. Precipitation should average near to above normal through

the south and east areas, near to below normal northwest.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat)

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged well below

normal. Lows yesterday morning ranged from -7 in southwest Nebraska to +34 in

northeast Texas, normals would be 17-41F.

Forecast: Mostly dry today. Dry or with only a little light precipitation

through northwest areas during Friday. Scattered light to locally moderate

precipitation is expected during Saturday into Sunday. The heaviest of this

activity should favor the eastern areas. Dry or with only a little light

precipitation during Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures average below

normal today, below normal north and above normal south tomorrow and Saturday,

below or well below normal Sunday and Monday, below normal Tuesday, near normal

west and below normal east Wednesday.

6-10 Day Outlook...Temperatures are expected to average below to near normal

north, near to above normal south. Precipitation averages near to above normal

through southeast locations, near to below normal through north and southwest

areas.

Brazil (Corn, Soybeans, Citrus, Coffee, Sugarcane)

Summary...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, 0.30-1.50

inches (8-38 mm) and locally heavier, occurred in RGDS and Santa Catarina

during the past 24 hours. Only a few light showers in Parana during this time.

Temperatures averaged near to below normal yesterday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and Goias: A few light showers with isolated heavier in Mato

Grosso and southeast MGDS during the past 24 hours. Little elsewhere in the

region. Temperatures averaged near to slightly above normal.

Sao Paulo/Minas Gerais: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures

averaged above normal yesterday.

Forecast...

Rio Grande do Sul, Parana, MGDS: Scattered light showers with locally heavier

will favor eastern and northern areas today while the southwest turns drier.

Mostly dry tomorrow and Saturday. Temperatures average near to below normal

south and near to above normal north during this period.

A few showers and thundershowers may occur in MGDS during Sunday, dry

elsewhere in the region Sunday. Scattered to widely scattered light showers

with locally heavier during Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures average mostly

near normal south, near to above normal north.

Sao Paulo/Minas Gerais: Mostly dry or with only a few light showers through

extreme west and south areas today. Chance for a few showers and thundershowers

during Friday, mostly in western areas but a few may occur in the east as well.

Scattered to widely scattered light showers during Saturday. Temperatures

average above normal today and Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

Scattered to widely scattered and mostly light showers linger in the region

Sunday and possibly early Monday. Drier later Monday. Chance for showers west,

fair east, during Tuesday. Temperatures average near to above normal Sunday,

above normal Monday and Tuesday.

Argentina (Corn, Soybean, Wheat)

Summary...Cordoba, Sante Fe, Buenos Aires, La Pampa.

Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged below normal

yesterday.

Forecast...

Dry today. Dry or with only a few very light showers during Friday or

Saturday. Temperatures trend a little warmer today and Friday. Cooler in the

south, continued warmer north, during Saturday.

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers Sunday through Tuesday.

Temperatures average near to below normal Sunday, warmer Monday and Tuesday.

Joel Burgio

Brazil Coffee Weather - Feb 27

SAO PAULO AND MINAS GERAIS

SUMMARY- Mostly dry or a few light showers during the past 24 hours.

Temperatures 82-90F (29-32C).

FORECAST-

TODAY...Mostly dry conditions or a few light showers. Temperatures 82-90F

(28-32C).

TONIGHT...Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures 61-70F (16-21C).

TOMORROW...Mostly dry conditions or a few light showers. Temperatures 81-90F

(27-32C).

OUTLOOK...Scattered light showers, locally heavier Saturday and Sunday,

scattered showers and thundershowers Monday. Temperatures near to above normal

during this period.

BRAZIL COFFEE PROSPECTS...

Mostly above normal temperatures and limited rainfall during the next 5 days

will deplete soil moisture and increase stress. Some production losses are

possible. Some increase in showers is possible next week.

ICE Coffee Testing Weekly Trendline -- Technical Analysis

Dow Jones - Kira Brecht

ICE May coffee futures pushed higher Wednesday, as the bulls continue to propel the market to

stronger price levels. Since late January, ICE May coffee has rocketed over 56% higher. The action

has turned the near and medium term trends firmly bullish in recent weeks. But, the market is now

bumping up against a long-term trendline drawn on the weekly continuation chart that could act as

resistance.

ICE May coffee recently traded up 150 points at $1.7775, down from Tuesday's intraday peak at

$1.8125 a pound.

Technically, the market has swept higher in recent weeks smashing through all significant moving

average resistance points on the daily chart. The ICE May coffee contract is now trading above all

important moving averages from the 20-day to the 200-day, which is a bullish signal generally for

the trend following crowd.

The market, however, is overbought on both daily and weekly momentum indicators, but that is not a

surprise given the massive rally move seen since late January. Strongly trending markets can remain

overbought for days or even weeks. But, it is a sign that coffee prices are vulnerable to a

correction.

Shifting out to the weekly ICE continuation chart, the coffee market has bumped into long-term

declining trendline resistance, drawn off the May 2011 and September 2011 weekly highs. That

trendline offers resistance this week around the 180.40 zone.

Additionally, bullish targets and resistance points are also seen on the weekly continuation chart

at $1.8545, the Oct. 5, 2012 weekly high and the 190.85 zone, the July 20, 2012 swing high. Those

areas are both important swing highs and technical chart points.

The ICE coffee contract has posted gains for the past four weeks, seen on the weekly continuation

chart. This Friday's settlement will be important to monitor. If the market can pierce the weekly

trendline resistance on a closing basis, it would register yet another strong bullish technical

signal. If the trendline holds firm, it could suggest a period of consolidation or even downside

correction was beginning.

On the daily ICE May chart, nearby support lies at the $1.6830-$1.6205 zone.

Bottom line? The market has rallied to a critical long-term trendline test. If the market stalls

at the trendline, overbought conditions could usher in a consolidation phase.

Terra Forte cut its forecast by 12%

SAO PAULO--Terra Forte, one of Brazil's biggest coffee exporters, cut its forecast for the 2014

harvest, saying an unprecedented drought has hurt the development of the coffee plants.

The company cut its forecast to 47.4 million 60-kilogram (132-pound) bags of coffee, from its

previous forecast of 53.7 million bags. The harvest of arabica beans, the type most often used in

gourmet coffee, accounted for the entire reduction, with Terra Forte cutting its forecast to 30

million bags from 36.3 million bags.

Terra Forte's forecast for robusta beans was unchanged at 17.4 million bags.

Brazil's main coffee-growing regions have been hit by the driest weather in at least 30 years,

according to meteorologists. The drought comes as the coffee cherries, the fruit from which the

beans are harvested, are developing.

"I've never seen a January and February with no rain before, and I'm older than 50," said Joaquim

Leite, export director for Terra Forte.

Arabica coffee prices are up 60% this year on concerns that less production or lower-quality

coffee from Brazil would crimp global supplies.

A seca e a cafeicultura: o que a fisiologia vegetal tem a explicar

Prof. José Donizeti Alves

Em vista dessa catástrofe que a cafeicultura brasileira está vivendo, gostaria de acrescentar alguns pontos que ainda não foram discutidos ou se foram, foi feito de maneira hipotética.

Muita coisa já se falou sobre os efeitos da seca na produção do café. E eu, me desculpe o trocadilho, não quero “chover no molhado”. O fato que ninguém contesta é que essa anormalidade meteorológica havia décadas não se manifestava. Pelo menos em termos de intensidade e durabilidade. Infelizmente dessa vez ela veio acompanhada de temperatura e luminosidade extremamente altas e ocorreu/ocorre em fases fenológicas das mais exigentes em termos de água, temperatura e luminosidade adequada.

As consequências práticas disso tudo também já foram mostradas e debatidas nesse espaço. Em termos de produção o que se vê é escaldadura das folhas; frutos pequenos, desidratados com descolamento do pergaminho (endurecido) da semente, mumificados, grãos mal formados, altíssima percentagem de grãos chochos. Todas essas anormalidades fisiológicas devem ser vista como BASTANTE ELEVADAS. Esta é a diferença fundamental dessa seca com as outras em anos passados. Ou seja: sem qualquer intenção de ser alarmista ou partidário do “quanto pior melhor”, a situação da cafeicultura brasileira desta vez é extremamente grave. Conclusão óbvia: a safra de 2014 está fortemente comprometida tanto em termos de quantidade quando de qualidade. Em minha opinião, depois de visitar várias regiões cafeeiras, deduzo que a perda vai variar entre 20 a 45% dependendo da região.

Em termos de crescimento vegetativo, a seca e o calor vieram em uma época de pleno crescimento de folhas e ramos. Portanto, ele também foi prejudicado. Isso equivale a dizer que a safra de 2016 também sofrerá reflexos negativos dessa estiagem. Como a fase de floração (não de florescimento) vai se iniciar nas próximas semanas, provavelmente, teremos problemas de indução de gemas reprodutivas o que vai refletir negativamente também na safra de 2015. Mas isso são assuntos para outra análise.

Preocupado com o momento atual, minha equipe foi ao campo (antes dos chuviscos da semana passada) para fazer um mapeamento da copa do cafeeiro mensurando vários parâmetros fisiológicos em um gradiente horizontal (da ponta dos ramos até o interior da copa, próximo ao tronco) e vertical (do ápice das plantas até a base da saia). Os dados estão sendo copilados, pois são objetos de uma dissertação de mestrado, mas preliminarmente revelaram aspectos interessantes e ainda não publicados na literatura cafeeira.

As folhas que às 5 horas da manhã tinham uma temperatura média de 21 °C (vejam que a noite estava quente) às 15 horas da tarde este valor subiu para 38°C. A temperatura da saia próxima ao tronco nesta mesma hora era de 33°C. Essas altas temperaturas, irá comprometer seriamente a fotossíntese, como se vera mais adiante.

O potencial hídrico que revela o grau de hidratação da planta, ou seja, a água que pode realizar trabalho, medido às cinco horas da manhã estava em -1,1 Mpa. Isto equivale a dizer o cafeeiro não recuperou à noite, a água perdida durante o dia. Isso porque a quantidade de água armazenada no solo não foi suficiente para tal. E para piorar, detectamos intensa morte de radicelas. De meio-dia até às 15 horas da tarde, o potencial hídrico tornou-se extremamente baixo atingindo, valores de -2,3 MPa. Este valor, para certas culturas significa “murcha permanente” ou morte da planta. Para o cafeeiro, segundo inúmeras pesquisas, é um valor que causa sérios danos, como queda na fotossíntese e translocação de carboidratos, murcha e queda de folhas, seca dos ponteiros, morte de raízes, queda no número e no rendimento de colheita, entre outros. O mais importante, o cafeeiro não morre e com a volta das chuvas ele recupera sua turgescência. Mas os danos causados pela perda de matéria seca (queda de folha, frutos e seca dos ponteiros) são irreversíveis.

Às nove horas da manhã, a fotossíntese, como é de se esperar, era a mais alta, mas o seu valor nas folhas da saia, foi em média, 64% menor quando comparado com aquelas do ápice. Da mesma maneira, as folhas mais internas da copa fotossintetizaram 54% menos que aquelas expostas ao sol. A partir dessa hora, a fotossíntese caiu substancialmente e às 15 horas, a região da copa com fotossíntese máxima apresentou uma taxa 75% menor quando comparada com a fotossíntese dessa mesma região as 9 horas. As folhas mais internas da copa, bem como as mais baixeiras, apresentaram taxas fotossintéticas próximas a zero.

Resumindo, considerando toda a copa do cafeeiro, a fotossíntese na maior parte do tempo operou em taxas extremamente insatisfatórias e em certos momentos negativa. Isso que dizer que o aporte de carbonos para o crescimento da planta, que equivale aos tijolos de uma parede em construção foi mínimo e em alguns casos, foram quebrados. E para quem entende pelo menos um pouco de bioquímica de plantas vera que esse ganho de carbono é suficiente apenas para a manutenção da planta viva. Muito pouco ou quase nada vai sobrar para o crescimento da planta, ou seja, se fosse uma construção não teria novas paredes e em alguns caso, haveria parede demolidas.

Com base nesses dados, agora, respondendo a inúmeras consultas que me fizeram, penso que, mesmo que as chuvas voltem, não haverá tempo suficiente (até que a estação seca e fria chegue) para o “enchimento dos frutos” e isso equivale a dizer que aquele espaço vazio, que muitos estão observando quando cortam os frutos transversalmente, não serão mais preenchidos, ou se forem, será muito pouco. Concluindo, a perda de rendimento na colheita, como muitos estão, empiricamente supondo, vai acontecer, com toda a certeza.

Essas minhas colocações vem no sentido de dar uma satisfação às pessoas que me perguntam por que até agora não me manifestei. Não o fiz, pois estava coletando dados de campo para poder fazer a afirmação que fiz no paragrafo anterior. Para não me prolongar mais, nos próximos dias darei continuidade ao assunto.

Prof. José Donizeti Alves

Universidade Federal de Lavras

Departamento de Biologia

Setor de Fisiologia Vegetal

terça-feira, 25 de fevereiro de 2014

Worst drought in decades hits Brazil coffee belt as buyers brace for price rise

Jia Lynn Yang for the Washington Post - Guardian Weekly - Tuesday 25 February 2014

A Brazilian coffee producer adjusts his irrigation system. In recent weeks heat has replaced frost as the

biggest risk to crops in the coffee belt.

Photograph: Paulo Whitaker/Reuters

Dry spell could lead to a world shortage of beans and increased prices for growing numbers of consumers

Don't panic. But there could be a global coffee shortage. Usually, during this time of year, the delicate arabica coffee plants in the mountains of Brazil, where most of the world's coffee comes from, are maturing. White, fragrant flowers have appeared, followed by cherrylike fruit, each containing two seeds: arabica coffee beans, the most popular in the world.

But last month the worst drought in decades hit Brazil's coffee belt region, destroying crop yields and causing the price of coffee to shoot up more than 50% so far this year. The drought is historic, forcing more than 140 cities in Brazil to ration water. Newspapers reported that some districts are receiving water only every three days.

For now, retail prices for coffee are stable. Roasters typically have enough supplies to cover themselves for a few months. But if the price of the arabica beans continues to rise, consumers could start seeing the cost of their morning coffee creep up later this year, according to Jack Scoville, a futures market analyst specialising in grains and coffee, among other commodities. Last Wednesday the price per pound (0.45kg) of coffee for delivery due in March reached the highest point in about 14 months, at $1.72.

Even before the drought, concerns arose that there would be a global coffee deficit. At the beginning of the year a closely watched report by a commodities trading firm noted that the global coffee market could face a shortage for the first time in three years. The report predicted coffee supplies will be about 5m bags lower than consumption for the 2014-15 season. This was an about-face from what experts were saying at the end of last year, when there appeared to be a coffee glut. There was so much coffee last year that arabica coffee futures fell by nearly 25%.

In the long run, though, experts say that the price of coffee will rise for one simple reason: more people in developing markets such as Brazil, India and China are acquiring a taste for it.

"Regardless of what happens in Brazil now … we will see higher prices and more competition for higher-quality coffee," said Kim Elena Ionescu, a coffee buyer and sustainability manager for Counter Culture, the influential North Carolina-based coffee roasting company. Ionescu said that it used to be that the developing world made coffee and the developed world drank it. But now countries such as Brazil, which traditionally only produced coffee, are starting to consume it, too. "More people are drinking coffee," said Ionescu. "And more people are drinking better coffee." Coffee production is hard to mechanise, and so it is likely that demand will continue to outstrip supply.

There are also concerns that climate change could limit supplies, with some pointing to Brazil's drought as evidence of more extreme weather becoming the norm. "What we are really seeing as a company as we look 10, 20, 30 years down the road – if conditions continue as they are – is a potentially significant risk to our supply chain, which is the arabica coffee bean," Jim Hanna, Starbucks' head of sustainability, said in an interview with the Guardian in 2011.

The situation could worsen for those who like sugar with their coffee. The drought in Brazil, the world's biggest producer of sugar, is disrupting plans for harvesting sugar cane. Futures prices for sugar are at nearly the highest level in two months.

Clima dá o tom, compras se mantêm e café sobe forte na ICE

Os contratos futuros de café arábica negociados na ICE Futures US encerraram esta segunda-feira com boas altas, com a posição maio chegando a tocar no melhor nível de preço desde 03 de outubro de 2012. Mais uma vez, o mercado se inclinou para o viés climático no Brasil e expôs sua grave preocupação com as possíveis perdas que o país terá na temporada atual, cuja colheita tem início em maio. O que os players levam em conta é que uma quebra de 10% ou 20% da produção do país poderia redundar em 5 ou 10 milhões de sacas a menos na oferta global que, como se recorda, já estava muito próxima do equilíbrio com a demanda. Com o Brasil ofertando de maneira modesta, já que tem compromissos de exportação que passam das 20 milhões de sacas, e uma demanda interna que é a segunda maior do mundo, também acima das 20 milhões de sacas, oque se depreende é que o país irá ter de abrir mão de estoques, o que é um indicativo de potencial de alta para preços. No que se refere aos estoques, aliás, neste momento já se observa uma pressão sobre o montante armazenado e certificado em Nova Iorque e Londres, com relatórios de quedas constantes. Diante desse quadro, muitos participantes se veem pressionados e efetuam aquisições especulativas, de caráter protetivo, o que se reflete nos terminais. Um operador indicou que, levando-se em conta a observação gráfica a partir das ondas Elliott, é registrado que o café está entrando em um novo nível, sendo que a segunda posição estaria tendendo a uma resistência em 183,60 centavos. Por outro lado, caso os vendedores retomem o fôlego, a tendência seria a buscado patamar de 162,05 centavos.

No encerramento do dia em Nova Iorque, a posição maio teve alta de 685 pontos, com 176,35 centavos de dólar por libra peso, com a máxima em 179,35 centavos e a mínima de 169,70 centavos, com o julho registrando ganho de 695 pontos, com 178,30 centavos por libra, com a máxima em 181,20 centavos e a mínima em 169,70 centavos. Na Euronext/Liffe, o março teve alta de 43 dólares, com 2.024 dólares por tonelada, com o maio tendo valorização de 48 dólares, para o nível de 2.003 dólares por tonelada.

De acordo com analistas internacionais, o dia foi caracterizado pela força dos compradores. Desde a manhã o mercado se mostrava ativo e, logo após o rompimento do nível de 170,00 centavos, novas compras especulativas passaram a ser executadas, com a segunda posição chegando até ase aproximar do patamar de 180,00 cents, sem, contudo, testá-lo. No segmento externo, o dia foi de dólar estável e bons ganhos para as bolsas de valores dos Estados Unidos, assim como as commodities softs também registraram avanço, com destaque para o café e o açúcar, ambas as matérias-primas que operam com olhos voltados para o clima no Brasil.

"O mercado continua focado na questão climática do Brasil e o que vemos é um quadro interessante, bastante procurado, que também se reflete no físico do Brasil, que tem preços bastante consistentes. Ainda existe o temor sobre os prejuízos causados às plantas, principalmente com regiões como Minas Gerais ainda não terem registrado chuvas razoáveis", disse um trader. Ele lembrou que os fundos continuam a ampliar fortemente suas posições compradas. No último relatório, referente ao dia 18 de fevereiro, foi verificado que, os fundos contavam com 30.937 posições líquidas compradas, contra 21.985 posições da semana anterior.

“O que todo mundo quer saber é quão mais o mercado pode subir, pergunta importante em vários aspectos e de difícil resposta em um mercado climático. De forma mais pragmática podemos dizer que colocar uma posição vendida (descoberta) é perigoso neste momento, mas vender seus cafés para diminuir dívidas e cuidar da lavoura parece uma decisão acertada. Outro 'play' interessante é comprar proteções de baixas (puts = opções de venda)financiando com vendas de calls (opções de compra), já que a volatilidade implícita explodiu. Tecnicamente, o movimento de alta pode continuar, mas devemos ficar preparados para dias de fortes baixas também", indicou Rodrigo Corrêa da Costa, da Archer Consulting.

O Vietnã está observando um desconto maior para seus cafés, em relação ao terminal de Londres, de acordo com avaliação da empresa Volcafé. Segundo a companhia, a venda dos grãos para embarque em março e abril teve, ao longo da última semana, um desconto de 40 dólares por tonelada, contra 20 dólares da semana de 10 a 15 de fevereiro. De acordo com fontes de Ho Chi Min, o rally dos últimos dias fez com que os descontos se ampliassem naturalmente. No mercado interno vietnamita, os preços tiveram um incremento médio de 6,8% ao longo da última semana.

As exportações brasileiras no mês de fevereiro, até o dia20, totalizaram 1.374.582 sacas de café, alta de 21,17% em relação às 1.134.393 sacas embarcadas no mesmo período do mês anterior, de acordo com informações do Cecafé (Conselho dos Exportadores de Café do Brasil).

Os estoques certificados de café na bolsa de Nova Iorque ficaram estáveis em 2.626.303 sacas.

Tecnicamente, o maio na ICE Futures US tem resistência179,35, 179,50, 179,90-180,00, 180,50, 181,00, 181,50, 182,00, 182,50, 183,00,183,50-183,60, 184,00, 184,50 e 184,90 centavos de dólar, com o suporte em169,70, 169,50, 169,00, 168,50, 168,30, 168,00, 167,50, 167,00, 166,50, 166,00,165,50, 165,00, 164,50, 164,00, 163,50, 163,00, 162,05, 162,00, 161,50, 161,00,160,50 e 160,10-160,00 centavos.

Londres amplia ganhos e volta a ficar acima dos 2 mil dólares

Data: 24/02/2014

Os contratos futuros de café robusta negociados na Euronext/Liffe encerraram esta segunda-feira com bons ganhos, permitindo que aposição maio conseguisse voltar a gravitar proximamente do nível psicológico de2.000 dólares. Mais uma vez, especuladores e fundos se mostraram bons compradores e seguiram o comportamento dos arábicas em Nova Iorque, com as cotações apresentando, assim, uma evolução constante.

De acordo com analistas internacionais, o dia foi caracterizado pela continuidade de aquisições, ainda na esteira das incertezas sobre os prejuízos causados pelo clima na safra brasileira, cuja colheita se inicia em abril ou maio. Os robustas se beneficiam de uma possível quebra mais incisiva do maior provedor mundial do grão, já que, assim como ocorreu nas últimas temporadas, quando a disponibilidade se mostrava bastante restrita para os arábicas, os compradores terão de fazer a opção por modificar seus blends e aumentar a aquisição de robustas.

"Tivemos uma sessão bastante volátil e o maio variou mais de 100 dólares. Na parte da manhã, chegamos a ter algumas tentativas de vendas, sem sucesso, no entanto. Com isso, se abriu espaço para que as aquisições especulativas continuassem e chegamos a tocar a máxima de 2.045dólares. Nas máximas, algumas realizações foram registradas. Com os ganhos mais efetivos, o Vietnã tem registrado um aumento nos descontos, que teriam passado de20 para 40 dólares num prazo de apenas uma semana", disse um trader.

O março teve uma movimentação ao longo do dia de 2,62 mil contratos, contra 13,0 mil do maio. O spread entre as posições março e maio ficou em 21 dólares.

No encerramento do dia, o março teve alta de 43 dólares, com2.024 dólares por tonelada, com o maio tendo valorização de 48 dólares, para o nível de 2.003 dólares por tonelada.

segunda-feira, 24 de fevereiro de 2014

Early Ag Weather Watch - Feb 24

EARLY LOOK WEATHER REPORT

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...89 AT DRYDEN TX

LOW SUN...8 BELOW ZERO AT FERGUS FALLS MN AND FOSSTON MN

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 06:00 PM CT...DAYTONA BEACH FL 0.98 INCH

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the next 5

days, fair agreement during days 6-10. I am using a compromise between the

models as it concerns the 6-10 day period. The main problem area during the

6-10 day period is in how much trough moves across the southern plains and

lower Miss river valley and how fast this trough may move. The US model is

somewhat deeper and slower moving with this trough and therefore has more

precipitation associated with it. In either case the short range maps feature

extreme cold and only light or locally moderate precipitation chances. Also in

either case there is some chance for precipitation and less cold for the

southeast plains, the lower Miss and the Ohio river valleys during the 6-10 day

period. In the case of the US model this chance may also include the southwest

plains region as well. The high latitude blocking ridge was shown over Alaska

last evening. The long range maps, days 8-10, show this ridge west of Alaska.

The strong jet stream dips fairly far to the south early in the ten day period.

Later in the period the jet stream is somewhat split with one branch moving

west to east over the northern US and a second jet stream moving across the

southern plains and the Delta before merging with the northern branch over the

northeast US region.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

SOUTH AMERICA: The upper level ridge is over east-central Brazil and in the

Atlantic today. Troughs are west of central Chile and over southeast Argentina.

The forecast shows the ridge remaining mostly in place through the middle of

this week. The Chile trough and the Argentina trough gradually merge over

southern Brazil later in the week. This causes an eastward shift to the ridge

center this weekend and early next week. This may allow some shower activity to

reach into the drought areas of Minas Gerais but this is somewhat uncertain.

ARGENTINA: A drying trend is expected during this week. This will favor

developing crops, after recent heavy rains. Cool weather early this week gives

way to warmer weather late in the week.

BRAZIL SOYBEANS/CORN: Heavy thunderstorms during the weekend for portions of

Mato Grosso and Parana likely means local flooding and delays to field work.

This may include harvest delays for soybeans and first crop corn and delays to

planting of second crop corn. Soil moisture for filling crops is adequate to

surplus at this time.

BRAZIL COFFEE, CITRUS, SUGARCANE AREAS: The drought pattern is expected to

continue for Minas Gerais crop areas for much of this week. There appears to be

at least some chance for increasing shower activity during the weekend and

early next week. If verified this would help ease stress to crops but there is

some uncertainty in this outlook. There appears to be a somewhat better chance

for needed rains to occur in Sao Paulo crop areas next weekend and early next

week.

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS: A return to colder weather is expected in the north and

east U.S. during this week. This appears to be mostly outside of the plains

wheat belt but it will bear watching.

MIDWEST: Extreme cold returns to the region, departures from normal at least 15

to 25 degrees below normal...possibly colder. Soft Red Winter wheat is somewhat

at risk since the recent warm spell has melted protective snow cover. Extreme

cold will again dramatically increase the usage of Natural Gas for heating. No

major transportation delays due to weather during the next 5 days.

SOUTH AFRICA: Scattered weekend showers will help to maintain favorable

conditions for filling maize and sugarcane crops in the region.