FUNDS SHORTENING AND MACRO SHAKY

On Davos last week central banks’ presidents did their job in talking about further “support” for the markets (China) and a potential new wave of liquidity easing (ECB and BoJ). The rhetoric was enough to halt the selling mode that investors were on and provoked a capitulation that drove equities and commodity indices sharply higher last Thursday and Friday. The steep fall of most indices and individual commodities, particularly last Wednesday, probably had the component of margin calls contributing to the collapse of prices. Most speculators remain short several raw materials in front on an expected lower World GDP growth revised also by the IMF. Among the emerging markets the Brazilian economic situation is taking the blame on the slower overall growth as the country shall retract near 3% in 2016 after contracting 3.5% in 2015. In China the hard-landing seems to be less of a problem comparing to a potential devaluation of the Yuan – denied to be the goal of the People’s Bank of China. As noted by McDougall on one of his reports last week, the 6.3% grown for China in 2015 is equivalent of 14% back in 2009 in relative terms, so at the end it is not bad. In fact what worries asset managers and individuals is how the markets will fare with the FED hiking rates this year. Bets on the later are now accounting for only two interest rates increase during this year – from previously thought of four hikes. Coffee in NY traded at the lowest level since January 2^nd 2014 (2^nd position) or December 12^th 2013 (consider the 1^st position). London is back to June 1^st 2010 and May 28^th 2010, respectively for front and second month contracts. Managed money led the selling on both markets while commercial longs increased their position according the latest COT reports.

Fundamental Focus

The flow of coffee in the origins diminished substantially recently only attracting few buyers that were forced to pay very high differentials to cover their shipments’ needs. Emerging market currencies sliding helped the prices in Colombian Peso and Brazilian Real to compensate partially the loss of the board, with the former feeling more the weight of the crude oil’s fall today – another swing of 8% on WTI in one day. Let’s see how the Real will behave tomorrow as today it was holiday in Sao Paulo, therefore no official rate for the Real was updated on the terminals with BM&F closed. Crop tours in the major producing country have started earlier than usual, mostly because of the early flowering that took place on the coffee belt last year. The rains were beneficial for the arabica trees and estimates shall be soon released by the private parties, likely showing a similar percentage gain on the arabica crop reported by CONAB last week. At the same time the conillon crop is compromised as the precipitations on the North of Espirito Santo came too late to avoid the losses. CONAB forecast for 16/17 crop between 49.126 to 51.944 mln bags, or an increase that ranges from 13.6% to 20.1% is below the expectations of the privates in absolute numbers, but relatively does not seem to be far from what many think is the potential. It seems to me that a crop below 60 mln bags shall not be negative for prices given the apparent low carry-over that Brazil will have and the demand that have not suffered. High exports from Brazil (second consecutive calendar year record), Colombia and Uganda have been enough to keep inventories at the destination at levels that would need a greater usage, mainly from certs, to stir up the negative tone of the traders. The positive signals that the basis gives reflects that one category of the chain is suffering (those who got short differentials) but at the same time it keeps natural users supplied for their needs – maybe not as much as desired. While certainly no one enjoys seeing some exporters and/or dealers in pain to meet their commitments, the bottom line is that the rosters are being supplied by the market. Farmers that in Brazil have already sold ¾ of their current crop, likely about 20% of the 16/17 crop and 5% of the 17/18 crop have little to no urgency to sell their beans now, especially when they see inflation near two digits and a currency that could depreciate more due to the uncontrolled price hikes internally and a government that is more worried about staying in power than trying to sort out the illness that Brazil has. In sum from a fundamental stand point we have the following bullish and bearish news. Bearish: stronger dollar against the producing countries’ currencies; a perspective of early arrival for the Brazilian crop; high exports figures; good amount of coffee at the hands of Vietnamese producers; high ICE robusta certified coffee; commercial long position very high; and the macro shakiness. Bullish: resilience of farmers to sell their coffees at current levels (therefore strong differentials); nearby tightness of quality beans; Brazilian crop that will be far to the once expected 60+ mln bags crop; ICE “C” certified stocks at the lowest level since mid- 2012; and funds short-position at or near their highest seen in a while. For now it seems that only a technical break out could take prices higher, but the volatility of risky assets makes it difficult to have a strong opinion about this market.

Technical Focus

NY March16 contract is trying to shake off the negative trend but so far all it has done was a rally that did not attract significant short-covering. A move above 118.25 could start triggering spec buying their gross-short (likely to be today above last September’s level) making then next resistance areas at 120.10, 122.60 and a more distant target at 126.80. Support for tomorrow will be at 113.20, 111.60, then 110.40 and 104.80 for the week. London March16 needs to break 1414 to attract some short covering, likely to be light, with the heavy ones probably seating at 1463 and 1480. On the downside support levels are at 1378, 1339, 1311 and then 1291.

Have a good week and good trades,

Rodrigo Costa

Brazil Coffee Weather

Last Week Of Month Earliest Opportunity For Rain

By Drew Lerner

Kansas City, October 15 (World Weather, Inc.) – Concern about coffee production in Brazil has risen in the marketplace the past few days as dryness remains persistent and temperatures very warm to hot. A reduction in relative humidity has occurred in some areas raising warning flags of greater stress levels in some coffee trees. A few erratic showers will occur through the middle part of next week, but “meaningful” rain that would have potential to bring relief to the drier areas of Sul de Minas, northeastern Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Zona de Mata and Cerrado Mineiro will not be possible until the last week of this month.

BRAZIL

No rain fell in Brazil coffee production areas Wednesday and temperatures remained warmer than usual. High temperatures Wednesday afternoon were mostly in the 30s Celsius with a few middle and upper 20s near the Sao Paulo coast. A few extreme highs reached near 40 in far northern Minas Gerais.

No significant change was offered in the computer forecast model guidance overnight. Weather pattern changes are not likely for the next eight or nine days, but the last week of this month will begin generating some rain from northeastern Sao Paulo into a part of Sul de Minas, Rio de Janeiro and “possibly” southern portions of both Zona de Mata and southern Cerrado Mineiro. Most of the rain that occurs during the last week of the month will be light, but it will provide “opportunity” for a little relief to the recent hot, dry,

Brazil Coffee Weather

conditions. Rainfall that occurs today through Friday of next week will be mostly insignificant.

Showers will impact a few coffee production areas each day through the end of next week, but resulting rainfall will rarely exceed 6 millimeters most days and none of the rain will be great enough to counter evaporation. A localized greater rain total will be possible on any day with Parana, southwestern Sao Paulo and a few coastal areas from Sao Paulo to Bahia most likely to encounter the precipitation.

Showers and a few thunderstorms will begin to increase in the last week of October in Sul de Minas, Rio de Janeiro, southern Zona de Mata, southern portions of Cerrado Mineiro and northeastern Sao Paulo, but areas to the north may not see much opportunity for rain. It is a little early to correctly predict rain amounts that might occur in the last week of the month, but daily amounts of 5 to 15 millimeters and locally more may evolve. Confidence in the late October rainfall pattern is low, but that is the earliest that any increase in shower activity will take place. A further increase in rainfall should occur in the first half of November.

Temperatures will continue warm with daily highs in the upper 20s and 30s Celsius in most of the production region. The warmest conditions are expected from northern Sao Paulo through western and northern Minas Gerais to central Bahia. A few extreme highs near 40 are expected from northern Minas Gerais to central Bahia. Lowest morning temperatures will be in the teens and lower 20s.

Brazil Coffee Weather

Another Week of Generally Dry, Warm Conditions

By Drew Lerner

Kansas City, October 9 (World Weather, Inc.) – Rain Thursday was mostly confined to northern Parana and southwestern Sao Paulo. These areas will have additional opportunity for rain over the next two weeks while the main coffee areas of northeastern Sao Paulo, Sul de Minas, Cerrado Mineiro and Zona de Mata stay dry or mostly dry and warm.

BRAZIL

Mostly dry weather occurred in Brazil’s most important coffee production areas from northeastern Sao Paulo northward Thursday. Satellite imagery suggested a few thunderstorms in northernmost Parana and far southwestern parts of Sao Paulo. High temperatures were mostly in the 30s from northern Parana to central Bahia. Highs in eastern Minas Gerais and parts of both Zona de Mata and Espirito Santo to eastern Bahia were mostly in the upper 20s and lower 30s.

Today’s forecast has not changed much over that of Thursday. Most of Brazil’s key coffee production areas will be left dry through the middle part of next week. Any rain that evolves will be mostly confined to Parana and southwestern Sao Paulo and some of that region may receive some hefty rainfall. Much lighter showers may impact southern Rio de Janeiro and immediate neighboring areas of northeastern Sao Paulo and far southeastern Minas Gerais, but resulting rainfall is not likely to be very great.

Concern over coffee conditions will stay moderately high over the next ten days as significant rain continues absent from the forecast. The most important coffee production areas from northeastern Sao Paulo into Sul de Minas, Rio de Janeiro, Cerrado Mineiro and Zona de Mata will go without significant rain. The only period favorable for rainfall in any key coffee areas will be Monday and Tuesday when showers produce up to 10 millimeters of rain from northeastern Sao Paulo to southern Sul de Minas and southern Rio de Janeiro.

The lack of rain continues to apply pressure on recently flowered trees. Those that pollinated successfully will need rain soon so that cherry setting occurs favorably and to avoid the potential of cherry aborting if conditions get too dry. The loss of early season cherries is not very likely. The stressful environment might help some of the trees that flowered in early to mid-September that may not have experienced successful pollination to set new blossom buds for a possible second flowering when seasonal rains finally arrive.

Amazon River Basin moisture continues lacking voracity and until a more normal buildup of moisture and greater shower and thunderstorm activity evolves the potential for soaking rains in key coffee production areas will remain low. High pressure aloft over northeastern Brazil is forcing what little tropical moisture is present in the Amazon River Basin to occur mostly in far western parts of the region.

World Weather, Inc. still believes improved weather will occur in the very last days of October and first days of November.

Daily high temperatures through the next week to ten days will continue mostly in the 30s Celsius with extremes pushing near 40 in the north periodically. Central Bahia and northern Minas Gerais will be hottest. In contrast, some middle and upper 20-degree highs will occur periodically along the coast from Sao Paulo to Bahia. Lowest temperatures at night will be in the teens and lower 20s.

Olam Sees Shrinking Coffee Supplies Before Brazil’s Next Harvest
2015-10-06 By Isis Almeida

(Bloomberg) -- The global supply of coffee will shrink before the next crop in Brazil, the world’s largest producer, as consumers erode stockpiles and new buyers enter the market, according to food trader Olam International Ltd.
Two years of shortages mean global inventories will keep falling for at least the next six months, said Rajat Kumar, a vice president of coffee trading and Dwayne Schmidt, a senior trader at Olam. Index funds will return to the market as buyers in January and declining stockpiles may lead some traders to close bets on lower prices, Schmidt said.
Coffee prices fell 23 percent this year and data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission show speculators have been betting on lower prices in almost every week since March as a decline in Brazil’s currency boosted the appeal of exports. Schmidt said recently the main buyers have only been roasters.
"There’s certainly evidence that all of the most bearish factors have been factored into the market," Schmidt said Friday in an interview in Basel, Switzerland. "We do see a situation in which there will be new buyers. Recently it has only been the roasters that have been buying."

Coffee Speculators

Global coffee supplies fell short of demand last season and another shortage is expected in 2015-16, Olam said, forecasting the cumulative deficit at almost 10 million bags. Inventories in warehouses monitored by ICE Futures U.S. fell to 1.985 million bags earlier this month, the lowest since 2012, according to exchange data compiled by Bloomberg.
Money managers have gone from holding a net-long position, which represent bets on higher prices, of 15,287 contracts at the beginning of the year to a net-short of 29,040 lots in the latest week, CFTC data show.
Supplies from the new crop in Brazil will help ease the global tightness when the beans enter the market around August 2016, according to Olam. Farmers will probably gather a record crop for the robusta and arabica varieties as the flowering
before next year’s harvest was "excellent," according to Kumar and Schmidt.
Flowers develop into the cherries containing the coffee beans. Arabica coffee is the kind favored for specialty drinks such as those by Starbucks Corp., while robusta is used in instant coffee and espresso.

Alleviate Stress

"We’ve had two years of consecutive deficits totaling close to 10 million bags, but if everything goes well, then the next record Brazil crop could alleviate the stress," Kumar said, adding that the additional supplies won’t be enough to offset
entire deficit. Coffee trading is currently correlated to currencies and it would take a big event, such as unfavorable weather, or stabilization of the Brazilian real to break that pattern, Kumar said.
"The next big thing will be something that surprises, the rains don’t start in Indonesia, the rains stop in Brazil, the rains don’t come in Colombia," Schmidt said. "These are all very important areas of production where there are question marks. In all these areas, the most optimistic scenario have been factored in."

Brazil Coffee Weather

Warm, Dry Next Ten Days

Kansas City, September 17 (World Weather, Inc.) – No rain and warm weather occurred in Brazil coffee production areas Wednesday and similar conditions were expected through September 27. Rain will be needed late this month or in early October to assure the best conditions for pollination in southern production areas where flowering is now under way.

BRAZIL

Warm temperatures and no rain fell in Brazil coffee production areas Wednesday and similar conditions were expected for much of the coming ten days. Highs were mostly in the upper 20s and lower to middle 30s Celsius. The warmest temperatures occurred in northern Sao Paulo and central Bahia where extremes reached 36.

The earliest that rain will return to southern coffee areas will be September 27 – a full ten days from now – and even then the expected rainfall may be light. Some showers will return to areas from northern Parana to Sul de Minas and Rio de Janeiro in the last days of September and early days of October – just in time to support pollination after recent flowering began. It will be imperative that rain returns at that time to protect production potentials.

Temperatures will not change greatly during the next ten days with daily highs in the middle 20s through the middle 30s Celsius most often. A few highs in the upper 30s are expected periodically in northern Sao Paulo and from northern and western Minas Gerais into central Bahia. Lowest morning temperatures will be in the teens and lower 20s with a few readings in the interior south of 11 or 12.

Chuveiros costeiras Somente Através de 24 de setembro

Por Drew Lerner

Kansas City, 15 de setembro (World Weather, Inc.) - tempo mais seco evoluiu

em todo o Brasil em áreas de produção de café dos últimos dois dias e ele irá prevalecer através

24 de setembro diária ou quase diariamente ducha são esperados nas zonas costeiras da Bahia e

com pouca freqüência no Espírito Santo. No entanto, a maioria das áreas de produção de café não será afetado

com humidade significativa. Floração continuará a partir Sul de Minas e Rio de Janeiro

em Paraná e alguns seguem-se a precipitação serão necessárias no final deste mês para garantir a

melhores condições de polinização e de ajuste de cerejeira.

BRASIL

Chuva segunda-feira foi principalmente confinada às áreas litorais do Espírito Santo para a Bahia.

Resultando precipitação através de CDT 0100 (0600 GMT) hoje foi não mais do que 4 milímetros.

As altas temperaturas estavam na 20s Celsius na Zona da Mata e no Rio de Janeiro para o leste

partes de São Paulo e Oriental Minas Gerais. Elevações foram na década de 20 superiores e 30 inferiores em

a maioria das outras áreas com poucos médio e 30 superior do norte de Minas Gerais para o centro

Bahia.

Não há muito a chuva vai cair no Brasil áreas de produção de café durante o próximo meio

semana a dez dias. Alguns chuveiros irregularmente distribuídos de importância limitada irá ocorrer

favorecendo a região costeira mais do que em qualquer outro lugar. Precipitação diária irá variar até 6

milímetros, com uma ocorrência pouco freqüente de 10 milímetros. A maioria das áreas de cultivo interior será

deixou seco. Existe algum potencial para aumentar a cobertura da chuva e montantes no final do

na próxima semana e no fim de semana seguinte, mas nenhum imersão generalizada de chuva é antecipado.

Temperaturas vai ser quente no norte e tornar-se um pouco mais oportuno no

sul. Altas diárias variam no meio 20s 30s Celsius através do meio mais frequentemente

com algumas 30s superiores previstos periodicamente a partir do norte e do oeste de Minas Gerais em

Bahia central. Temperaturas mais baixas da manhã será na adolescência e 20s mais baixos na maioria das vezes

com algumas leituras no interior sul entre 11 e 13.

http://archerconsulting.com.br/artigos/artigo3646/

Mercado de Café

 – Comentário Semanal  –  de 7 a 11 de setembro de 2015

O mercado financeiro aguarda ansiosamente a decisão sobre o aumento dos juros dos Estados Unidos no próximo dia 17 de setembro para reorganizar as carteiras de investimentos.

Notícias dos mercados emergentes e indicadores econômicos mistos da principal economia do planeta ajudaram os índices de bolsa europeus e americanos a ficar praticamente de lado desde o meu último comentário (há duas semanas).

Confusão mesmo veio do Brasil com a presidente mandando um orçamento para aprovação no congresso com um déficit de 30 bilhões, mostrando não estar preocupada com as contas do país e desencadeando o rebaixamento da nota da dívida para o grau especulativo pela agência de risco Standard & Poor’s. Com o perdão do trocadilho, pobre população que sofrerá ainda mais com a atual administração, que muitos veem como esperança a não-conclusão do mandato.

A moeda brasileira neste cenário bateu R$ 3.9061 contra o dólar-americano ajudando a empurrar o café para novas mínimas, com contribuições do clima e de fatores técnicos.

O arábica em Nova Iorque fechou no pior patamar, em dólares, desde janeiro de 2014, a US$ 116.55 (considerando o segundo mês de futuros). Londres está pior, caiu para os níveis de novembro de 2013. Em minha opinião as chuvas abundantes nas regiões produtoras no Brasil desencorajaram compras no terminal, trouxeram algumas vendas de origens e com a fraqueza do Real atraíram especuladores para vender – mais ainda depois da quebra da mínima anterior.

Por outro lado, os preços em reais por libra-peso se mantêm em saudáveis R$ 452.00 centavos, distante dos R$ 561.00 centavos de outubro de 2014, mas acima da média de quatro anos de R$ 367.00 centavos – um argumento indisputável dos baixistas.

As perguntas que cabem são: 1) Há café suficiente para os produtores brasileiros pressionar as cotações no curto-prazo?; 2) A safra 16/17 começará a ser vendida exatamente quando (em volume)?; 3) Onde vai parar o Real?

Aos que assumem uma safra atual menor do que a do ano passado a resposta à primeira pergunta é um sonoro “não”. Mas, mesmo para os que acham ser maior, eventualmente a atual sensação de descontrole da economia e o risco de pressão inflacionária maior (que pode não perdurar dado o quadro recessivo mais agudo), pode fazer os produtores segurar o café para se proteger. Quanto a safra 16/17 muitos devem esperar a firmação da florada/a continuação das chuvas pelo período necessário para então buscarem compradores interessados em garantir o fornecimento de café lá na frente.

Falar do Real é mais complicado, pois a Dilma pode sempre tirar outro coelho da cartola que assuste a todos. Entretanto com os títulos brasileiros já negociando a níveis piores de economias bem mais complicadas, o dólar já ter valorizado muito e o cenário político parecendo impossível de piorar ainda mais, tudo indica que no curto-prazo o câmbio não deva passar os R$ 4.00. Bem, especulemos, se cair o Levy imediatamente o desespero tomará conta do ambiente, mas isto, imagino, deve ser a gota d’água para finalmente o processo de impeachment acelerar a saída da mandante.

Atendo-nos apenas ao café, as notícias baixistas em grande parte já estão descontadas, como a safra colombiana se repetindo, a vietnamita esperada como maior do que a atual e os estoques certificados elevados. Talvez ainda falte uma venda maior dos especuladores quando virem as fotos das floradas nas próximas semanas, mas fora isto as novidades podem ser altistas a partir de agora, como por exemplo uma renda mais baixa dos produtores de suaves em função das chuvas erráticas nos últimos meses por lá.

Os fundos já estão novamente com a maior posição vendida desde dezembro de 2013, e embora não pararão de vender enquanto os sinais gráficos não apontarem que estão errados, os volumes devem ser menores de agora em diante. Ao mesmo tempo a contínua compra dos comerciais, como mostrada no COT, e um intervalo de preços mais apertado da curta semana passada, podem ser fatores suficientes para uma cobertura de shorts no curto-prazo, que então testará a disposição de venda dos produtores da América Central, Colômbia e Brasil.

Só não podemos ter a queda do ministro da economia brasileira agora, ou o improvável aumento dos juros pelo FOMC em mais de 0.25% na reunião do comitê da semana que se inicia.

O primeiro nível de resistência é US$ 120.00 centavos, e o suporte está a 115.50 e 110.00.

Brazil Coffee Weather

Additional Rainfall Parana to Sul de Minas into Next Week

By Drew Lerner

Kansas City, September 10 (World Weather, Inc.) – Follow up rainfall will evolve

from Parana to Sul de Minas and Rio de Janeiro over the next couple of days after

generalized significant rain fell earlier this week. The additional moisture and scattered

showers of lighter intensity expected next week will support additional flowering.

Temperatures will be mild to cool in the rainy areas of the south and warm in Bahia and

northern Minas Gerais where rainfall is not likely to be significant anytime soon.

BRAZIL

Showers Wednesday were limited to a small region from Cerrado Mineiro into

central and southern Minas Gerais where 3 to 13 millimeters of rain resulted. Satellite

imagery suggested a few locally greater amounts of rain occurred in and near coffee areas in

northern Sul de Minas, as well. The remainder of Brazil was left mostly dry.

High temperatures Wednesday afternoon were in the range of 20 to 27 from Parana

to central Minas Gerais while upper 20s through the middle 30s occurred further north.

Extreme highs of 36-37 occurred in far northern Minas Gerais.

A new wave of significant rain is expected in Parana and Sao Paulo today and Friday

that will generate another 15 to 45 millimeters of rain with local totals to 64 millimeters.

The greatest rain will be near the common borders in the two states. The precipitation will

diminish greatly once it reaches into northeastern Sao Paulo, Sul de Minas and Rio de

Janeiro Friday into the weekend. However, daily showers will liner Monday and Tuesday

from Parana to Sul de Minas and Rio de Janeiro with a few showers expected in Zona de

Mata and Espirito Santo. Daily rain totals Sunday into Tuesday will range from 1 to 13

millimeters with local totals to 20, but late Friday and Saturday may generate some rain

totals of 15 to 35 millimeters from Rio de Janeiro into the extreme northeastern corner of

Sao Paulo.

Rain during the balance of next week and into the following weekend is expected to

be more restricted with daily showers producing a trace to 6 millimeters of rain from coastal

Bahia to Rio de Janeiro and in a few Sul de Minas and Sao Paulo locations. A few pockets

of greater rain will be possible.

Overall, rain expected during the next week to ten days will be sufficient as follow

up moisture to support flowering that began with greater rainfall earlier this week. It will

be imperative that additional rain falls late this month to assure successful pollination for

the early flowering crops.

Temperatures will remain mild in the rainy areas from Parana to Sul de Minas and

Rio de Janeiro during the coming week while seasonably warm conditions prevail from

northern Minas Gerais into Bahia. Highs most days through the weekend will range in the

20s from northern Parana to Sul de Minas with a few upper teens today and Friday. Highs

further north will be middle 20s through the lower 30s with a few middle 30s in the drier

areas of northern Minas Gerais and Bahia. Lowest morning temperatures will be in the teens

and lower 20s most often, but a few readings of 10 to 12 will occur in southern parts of the

nation through the weekend.

Rain To Induce More Flowers Parana To Southern Sul de Minas  

By Drew Lerner

Kansas City, September 9 (World Weather, Inc.) – Rain impacted areas from northern Parana to southernmost Sul de Minas Tuesday and additional rain will occur in the same areas through the weekend offering plenty of moisture to support flowering. Follow up rain will be needed later this month and into October to assure successful pollination and cherry setting. The longer range outlook is favorable for follow up rain. Northern coffee areas will stay dry and warm.

BRAZIL

Rain Tuesday occurred from northern Parana to southernmost portions of Sul de Minas. Amounts through 0100 CDT today (0600 GMT) ranged from 28 to 51 millimeters except in interior southern Sul de Minas where totals were rarely more than 6 millimeters. Dry weather dominated areas to the north from northern Sul de Minas to Bahia.

Temperatures were cooler in the rainy areas with highs limited to the lower 20s from northern Parana through eastern and southern Sao Paulo to portions of Zona de Mata. In contrast, highs of 35 to 37 occurred from northern Minas Gerais to central Bahia. Most other highs were in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Today’s rain will be much lighter than that which fell Tuesday and it will shift north into a larger part of Sul de Minas and Rio de Janeiro. Totals in these areas and in parts of Sao Paulo will range from 1 to 8 millimeters with local totals to 13 millimeters.

A new wave of greater rain is expected in Parana and Sao Paulo Thursday and Friday that will generate another 15 to 40 millimeters of rain. However, like the previous rain event, the precipitation will diminish greatly once it reaches into Sul de Minas and Rio de Janeiro during the weekend. Totals in those areas will vary from 1 to 10 millimeters with an isolated amount that could get to 20 millimeters. Random showers of light intensity are expected Monday and Tuesday of next week from Zona de Mata to Parana with rainfall of 1 to 8 millimeters each day and local totals as great as 13.

Rain during the balance of next week and into the following weekend is expected to be more restricted with daily showers producing a trace to 6 millimeters of rain from coastal Bahia to Rio de Janeiro and a few Sul de Minas locations. Some greater rain will fall infrequently in Parana and southwestern Sao Paulo with totals possibly getting over 20 millimeters briefly late next week.

Overall, sufficient rainfall will occur from Parana to Sao Paulo to support flowering. There may also be some flowering in parts of Rio de Janeiro and southern Sul de Minas, but Zona de Mata may not get enough moisture to induce such conditions. Northern portions of Sul de Minas may also require greater rain for more flowering, although a part of the region received significant rain last week. Dry weather will prevail in Bahia, northern Minas Gerais and northern Espirito Santo. These areas are expected to be mostly dry and warm for an extended period of time. Cerrado Mineiro will also receive minimal rainfall for a while, although a few sporadic showers will be possible.

Temperatures will remain hot in the far north and mild to cool in the south. Highs through the weekend will vary in the upper teens through the middle 20s from Parana to Sao Paulo with the rainy days coolest. Some of the more sunny days in the south will generate highs well into the 20s. Daily highs a little further north from northern parts of Sul de Minas and Cerrado Mineiro northward to Bahia will mostly be in the upper 20s through the middle 30s. Extreme highs in the upper 30s will prevail in northern Minas Gerais and parts of central Bahia. Lowest morning temperatures will be mostly in the teens and lower 20s with a few extremes of 10 to 12 in the heavier rainfall areas.